4:50 Gowran Park
The Paddy Monaghan 90th Birthday Handicap Hurdle at Gowran Park brings together a competitive field of 16 for this 2m4f40y contest on yielding to soft ground. With official ratings clustered between 100 and 120, the race features several smart performers on their day, many with previous success or placed form at today's trip or at this venue. Overall the KTB Fit scores point to a tight contest at the top of the weights, headed by The Friday Man on 70, with In For The Night, Slane Hill, Come On The Lads and Positive Thinker completing the principals.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to overcome. Almost every runner in the field is described as held up, typically producing their effort late, which sets up a race where the front-runner may get first run and dictate terms. The key question is whether any of the hold-up performers can bridge the gap on a horse allowed an easy lead on this surface and trip.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1The Friday Man KTB Selection70/100
The Friday Man arrives with a KTB Fit of 70 and is the clear selection. A smart performer on his day, he possesses solid ratings and a strong history of competitive runs. He drops back from 3m1f to a trip over which he has won before, although his only attempt on yielding to soft ground brought no joy. The Moses McCabe yard has a 9% strike rate at Gowran from 46 runs with an A/E of 1.31, while jockey Miss Ella Herbison has no recorded rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run effectively against the uncontested leader.
-
2In For The Night66/100
In For The Night carries a KTB Fit of 66 and looks a major player. This smart performer won over this trip earlier in his career and has already shown he handles the track with a victory here from his only start. He looked back in form when scoring last time out, and his placed effort on yielding to soft ground suggests the surface will be fine. The Conor O'Dwyer stable posts a 9% strike rate at Gowran with an A/E of 1.12 from 124 runs, while Charlie O'Dwyer rides with a 10% strike rate and A/E of 1.36 from 29 rides here. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be aiming to come from off the pace set by the lone leader.
-
3Slane Hill63/100
Slane Hill is rated with a KTB Fit of 63. A high-class performer, he has placed at this track and won over today's trip in the past. He drops back in distance after his last run over 2m5½f, and his placed effort here came on similar ground, though he remains winless in three runs on yielding to soft. Barry Connell has a 15% strike rate at Gowran with an A/E of 1.05 from 20 runs, while Sean Flanagan has a 6% strike rate from a large sample of 324 rides with an A/E of 0.71. A usual hold-up performer with high confidence, he will need to produce a strong late effort.
-
4Come On The Lads61/100
Come On The Lads has a KTB Fit of 61. This smart performer has shown little spark in three starts this season and now steps up in trip for the first time. His course form is limited to one unplaced run that ended in a fall, while both the Gavin Cromwell yard and Keith Donoghue operate below the Gowran average with 9% and 7% strike rates respectively. The ground is an unknown as he has never raced on yielding to soft. Usually held up, he will be looking to improve on recent form from off the pace.
-
5Positive Thinker57/100
Positive Thinker is next in with a KTB Fit of 57. A smart performer with a solid course record here including a win from four runs, he drops back in trip from 2m7f to a distance at which he has already scored once. He was well held on his last two starts and has been off the track since. The Michael J McDonagh yard has a 6% strike rate at Gowran with an A/E of 0.82 from 78 runs, while Cian Quirke posts a 9% strike rate and A/E of 0.92 from 34 rides. Usually held up, he possesses placed form on yielding to soft ground.
-
6Plunkett Street55/100
Plunkett Street has a KTB Fit of 55. This smart performer has placed at this track and won on this ground, though he steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m5f. He has won at 2m4f before. The trainer remains winless from eight Gowran runs while the jockey's 5% strike rate adds little confidence.
-
7Katie Daniels54/100
Katie Daniels carries a KTB Fit of 54. A smart performer who won on yielding to soft from just one run on it and has scored twice at today's trip, she steps up in distance again after her last run over 2m3½f, which looks a fair ask. The trainer is 0-14 at Gowran while the jockey has a modest 6% strike rate here from 16 rides.
-
8Arctic Flame54/100
Arctic Flame is rated with a KTB Fit of 54. This smart performer has shown useful form this season with a win and a second and ran well to finish second here on his only visit. He has already won at today's trip, though the trainer's modest record at the track and lack of experience on yielding to soft ground are the main negatives.
-
9Jackmoon53/100
Jackmoon has a KTB Fit of 53. A smart performer who has run to a good level on his last two starts, finishing third both times, he has already placed over this trip and was second when tried here over further. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer holds a solid record at Gowran while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
-
10Brucejack51/100
Brucjack arrives with a KTB Fit of 51. This smart performer has placed here and at today's trip in the past. Dropping back from a lengthy 3m7f run looks a positive yet he has failed to place in four runs on this sort of ground and his trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Gowran adds caution, though the jockey's 12% record at the track is a plus.
-
11Nelson Muntz49/100
Nelson Muntz has a KTB Fit of 49. A smart performer who has been a regular in good company but has been out of the frame in three of his last four starts, he produced a respectable fourth on his only previous visit to Gowran. The yard's 2% strike-rate here is a concern, as is the jockey's modest 6% record. He steps up in trip today.
-
12Ocean Murphy49/100
Ocean Murphy is rated with a KTB Fit of 49. This useful sort has won two of his last three starts and steps up in trip having already scored at this distance. He has shown nothing at Gowran in one run and has failed to place in two tries on this type of ground. The trainer's modest record here adds another negative.
-
13Ripsnorter48/100
Ripsnorter carries a KTB Fit of 48. A smart performer who showed his true level when winning last time out over 2m2f, he steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 2% strike-rate at Gowran is another negative. The jockey has a solid 8% record here from plenty of rides.
-
14Bop Wont Stop47/100
Bop Wont Stop has a KTB Fit of 47. This smart performer has not shown his best in two runs this season after a long absence. He has a previous run at this track plus one try at today's trip, neither of which brought a win or a place. The trainer's modest record here adds a further negative.
-
15Paradise Lost46/100
Paradise Lost is rated with a KTB Fit of 46. A useful performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, including a second and a third from seven runs here, he steps up in trip today. He has placed once at this distance without winning. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Gowran.
-
16Lucy Wang37/100
Lucy Wang has a KTB Fit of 37. This useful mare has shown steady promise in recent seasons and holds a solid rating for the level. She makes her first run at Gowran for a trainer with a modest 7% strike rate here, while the jockey is on 4% from 137 rides. She drops back in trip with first-time headgear on ground she has never encountered.
KTB verdict
The Friday Man is the KTB Selection. He is a smart performer on his day with solid ratings and a strong history of competitive runs, and the drop back to a trip he has won over before looks well judged in a race where the pace shape may favour those who can close effectively. His trainer's record at Gowran adds some encouragement despite the lack of course form on record. The main dangers are In For The Night, who has already won here and looked back in form last time, and Slane Hill, who brings high-class form and placed efforts at the track. Come On The Lads and Positive Thinker cannot be entirely dismissed if they can overcome their respective question marks on trip or recent spark.
KTB Selection The Friday Man
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:24 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| The Friday Man | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| In For The Night | 6/1 | BetMGM |
| Slane Hill | 20/1 | BetMGM |
| Come On The Lads | 12/1 | William Hill |
| Positive Thinker | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Plunkett Street | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Katie Daniels | 17/2 | Bet365 |
| Arctic Flame | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Jackmoon | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Brucejack | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Nelson Muntz | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Ocean Murphy | 4/1 | BetTom |
| Ripsnorter | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Bop Wont Stop | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Paradise Lost | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Lucy Wang | 12/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:50 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to take the uncontested lead?
Ripsnorter is the only front-runner in the field and tends to make the running or race prominently.
How many principals have previous winning form at Gowran Park?
In For The Night and Positive Thinker have each won here, while Slane Hill has placed without winning.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Lucy Wang is the only horse fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest trainer strike rate at Gowran in the field?
Slane Hill's trainer Barry Connell has a 15% strike rate at Gowran from 20 runs.
How many of the principals are proven on yielding to soft ground?
Only In For The Night and Positive Thinker have placed on yielding to soft, while The Friday Man, Slane Hill and Come On The Lads have either no joy or are unproven.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies