4:16 Gowran Park
This Racing TV Handicap Hurdle (Division II) at Gowran Park brings together a field of 23 for a 2m4f40y contest on yielding to soft ground. The KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but open event, with the top five all rated in the low-to-mid 60s and the remainder trailing off into the 50s and below, underlining the spread of ability across a large field. Most runners arrive with modest recent form and several unproven elements on the ground or at the trip, while the trainer and jockey combinations add varying layers of interest at this venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is clear, with a lone leader expected to enjoy an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for closers to reel in. Le Roi Arthur is the only front-runner in the field and should be allowed to dictate matters from the outset. The remainder are largely held-up types or those who settle in mid-division, meaning the race is likely to develop into a test of whether anything can bridge the gap to the uncontested leader in the latter stages. The key question is whether the prominent runner can maintain the advantage or if the pack of late closers can muster a concerted effort on this ground.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Jonny Carrol KTB Selection65/100
Jonny Carrol is a useful performer who has shown some promise but has failed to land a race in five attempts at this trip. Recent form has been patchy with a pulled-up effort and two modest placed runs mixed in, leaving him with a current official rating of 100. The Moses McCabe yard holds a 9% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.31 from 46 runs, though the jockey Miss Ella Herbison has no record at the track. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has no previous course form, while his held-up run-style means he will be produced late off what is expected to be a steady gallop. Overall he remains the KTB selection in a race where his ability can be given another chance to shine.
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2Free Flow63/100
Free Flow is a useful performer on his best days but has been out of form for most of this year and finished well beaten on his only previous run here. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched over further last time, though he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground with an official rating of 96. The Edward F Power stable has no record at Gowran Park, but jockey Ethan O'Sullivan brings a 20% strike rate from five rides at the venue with an A/E of 2.46. His only course visit resulted in a 14th-place finish, and as a usual held-up runner he will be among those trying to close the gap on an uncontested leader. The combination of trip drop and jockey booking keeps him firmly in the picture.
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3Midnight Musical62/100
Midnight Musical is a fair performer who has been struggling to land a blow of late with a string of modest efforts from an official rating of 88. The A McCann yard has a 12% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.44 from 51 runs, while jockey James Smith operates at 17% from six rides with an A/E of 1.56. He is unproven on yielding to soft ground and has failed to make the frame in three runs at today's trip, with this also marking his first visit to the course. Operating from a held-up position, he will need the race to fall right if he is to capitalise on the yard's solid local record.
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4Minority Interest59/100
Minority Interest is a useful performer who won over course and distance last year before a patchy spell, and he now steps back up in trip having looked laboured on his recent return over shorter. He has only one previous run on this sort of ground and carries an official rating of 94. The P J Rothwell stable has a modest 4% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 0.59 from 395 runs, while the jockey has no record at the track. His course record reads one win from two starts, and as a usual held-up type he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race with an uncontested leader. The prior success at this venue and trip gives him a clear foothold in the contest.
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5The Ducks Walk58/100
The Ducks Walk is a fair sort who has shown little spark in three runs this season from an official rating of 81. He has failed to place in three previous attempts at this trip and the small overall sample makes his ideal conditions hard to pin down, with no experience of yielding to soft ground. The N Dooly yard has a 10% strike rate at Gowran Park with an A/E of 1.33 from 39 runs, and jockey Richard Condon brings a 12% strike rate from 26 rides with an A/E of 1.84. As a held-up performer he will be among those waiting to pounce late, and the solid trainer-jockey record at the venue provides some interest despite his recent lack of spark.
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6Talas Kera55/100
Talas Kera is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip but has struggled to convert it into a win. He has not sparkled in recent runs and his sole try on yielding to soft produced no win or place, while the trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate here from 27 runs and the jockey has a stronger 17% from a small sample of six rides.
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7Bold Reflection52/100
Bold Reflection is a useful performer who has shown very little in three starts this season. He has failed to place in three attempts at this trip and the yard's modest record at Gowran offers no encouragement, though the jockey has a fair strike-rate at the track while the overall profile remains patchy.
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8Stumblin In50/100
Stumblin In is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form this season and failed to complete in three of his last four starts. He has no experience of yielding to soft ground and has shown little at this trip in two previous attempts, while the trainer's poor record at Gowran Park adds to the negatives.
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9Wildhorserider50/100
Wildhorserider is a useful sort who showed little in three starts last season but remains lightly raced and open to improvement as a chaser. He steps up in trip today having failed to complete over this distance on his only previous attempt, while trainer and jockey both have modest records at Gowran.
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10Trixaboutmaisie48/100
Trixaboutmaisie is a fair performer who has struggled to make an impact in five starts so far with a string of uncompetitive efforts. She drops back in trip from 3m to 2m4f having failed to trouble the judge on her only previous try at today's distance, while the trainer holds a solid 10% strike rate from 58 runs at Gowran.
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11Le Roi Arthur46/100
Le Roi Arthur is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He showed fair form when placed on his first two starts yet has failed to fire on his last two outings and now steps up markedly in trip as a lightly raced 5-year-old, while the yard has a modest record here and the jockey's 3% strike-rate from 34 rides adds little encouragement. As the only front-runner he is set to make the running in a race with a lone leader shape.
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12Lady Felicia46/100
Lady Felicia has shown steady placed form in three runs this year and carries a useful class rating. She now drops back from 3m1f to a trip she has never tried, which asks a fresh question of her, while the yard has a modest 2% strike rate at Gowran and the jockey sits on 6% from 83 rides here.
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13Glory Sky45/100
Glory Sky is a fair performer who has been largely out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. The step up in trip looks a logical move and he has shown he can handle this distance in the past, though he remains unproven on yielding to soft ground, while the trainer has a modest 3% strike rate here from 31 runs and the jockey is operating at a strong 24% strike rate from his 21 rides at the track.
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14Sunrise Strider45/100
Sunrise Strider is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today having never tried this far and the small sample on going leaves suitability unknown, while the trainer holds a 6% strike rate from 78 runs here and the jockey is 9% from 34 rides.
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15Allroadsleadtorome45/100
Allroadsleadtorome is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings and recent efforts yet has failed to build on an encouraging debut when finishing down the field in four subsequent starts. The trainer holds a modest 5% strike rate from 302 runs at Gowran Park while the jockey remains winless from 14 rides here, and he steps up markedly in trip today with only five career runs behind him so the race will tell us more about his stamina.
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16Hidalgo Des Mottes44/100
Hidalgo Des Mottes is a fair performer who has shown bits and pieces this season without looking on the verge of a win. He steps up in trip today having been placed at this distance before though he has looked happier racing shorter in recent runs, while trainer and jockey both operate at a modest 6% strike rate here and the horse has no previous experience of Gowran Park.
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17Arctic Piper44/100
Arctic Piper is a fair performer on his best days but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge in six previous attempts at this distance and his only run on yielding to soft ground brought no joy, while the trainer’s modest record at Gowran adds little encouragement on what is the horse’s first run at the track.
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18Comanche Moon43/100
Comanche Moon is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. This is the first time at Gowran Park for both horse and yard, with the trainer recording a 10% strike rate from 154 runs here and the jockey a 4% strike rate from 24 rides, and he steps up in trip today having only one run on yielding to soft ground.
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19Ardera Gun42/100
Ardera Gun is a fair performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and was pulled up or unseated in three of his last four outings. He has placed once from a single run at Gowran Park but remains unproven on yielding to soft ground and has failed to trouble the judge in three runs at this trip, while the trainer holds a modest record here and the jockey is operating below his course strike rate.
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20Silin Alainn42/100
Silin Alainn is a fair performer on the balance of his ratings but has been well beaten on all six starts and showed nothing at all on his most recent outing. The trainer has a solid 9% strike rate from 321 runs at Gowran Park while the jockey is operating at a 4% strike rate from 91 rides here, and he has tried this trip once without success while the small sample means his effectiveness on yielding to soft ground remains unknown.
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21Lariat41/100
Lariat is a fair 10-year-old who has largely struggled in recent starts with a string of poor efforts including two pulled-ups. He has shown some ability at today's trip without winning and has one placed effort on this sort of ground though the sample is tiny, while the yard's modest record here adds little encouragement and his sole visit to Gowran produced a remote fourth.
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22Thurman41/100
Thurman is a fair performer who has shown very little in four completed starts and was pulled up on his other run. He has been well beaten at this trip on both attempts and the yard's modest record here offers no encouragement, while the jockey is similarly quiet at Gowran with a 4% strike rate from 192 rides.
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23Rose Mountain39/100
Rose Mountain is a fair performer on the balance of her ratings and race history. Recent efforts have been poor with a string of unplaced finishes, while the step up from 2m to this 2m4f distance asks a fresh question, and the trainer holds a 7% strike rate from 57 runs at Gowran while the jockey is operating at 6% from 332 rides here.
KTB verdict
Jonny Carrol is the KTB selection and looks to have the best blend of ability and yard record to take advantage of what could be an uncontested lead up front. He has shown useful form in the past and the Moses McCabe stable's solid figures at Gowran Park provide encouragement, even if he is unproven on the ground and held up in his running. The main dangers are headed by Free Flow, who drops back in trip with a jockey in form at the venue, and Minority Interest, who won over course and distance last year and can build on a recent return. Midnight Musical and The Ducks Walk also have place claims if the race shape plays into the hands of the held-up brigade, but the selection can come out on top.
KTB Selection Jonny Carrol
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:01 UTC, 2 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Jonny Carrol | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Free Flow | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Midnight Musical | 25/1 | BetTom |
| Minority Interest | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| The Ducks Walk | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Talas Kera | 6/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Bold Reflection | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Stumblin In | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Wildhorserider | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Trixaboutmaisie | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Le Roi Arthur | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Lady Felicia | 11/1 | William Hill |
| Glory Sky | 16/1 | BetTom |
| Sunrise Strider | 12/1 | BetTom |
| Allroadsleadtorome | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Hidalgo Des Mottes | 8/1 | BetTom |
| Arctic Piper | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Comanche Moon | 13/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Ardera Gun | 16/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Silin Alainn | 8/1 | BetTom |
| Lariat | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Thurman | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Rose Mountain | 33/1 | BetTom |
This is the narrative read of the 4:16 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Gowran Park results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Le Roi Arthur is the only front-runner and should be allowed to dictate from the front in a race with a lone leader pace shape.
How many of the principals are unproven on yielding to soft ground?
Four of the top five principals — Jonny Carrol, Free Flow, Midnight Musical and The Ducks Walk — have no runs on yielding to soft.
Which horse has previously won over course and distance?
Minority Interest won over course and distance last year and has a record of one win from two starts at Gowran Park.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park among the principals?
Ethan O'Sullivan has a 20% strike rate at Gowran Park from five rides with an A/E of 2.46 when riding Free Flow.
How many runners in the full field have course form at Gowran Park?
Only a small number have course form: Free Flow (one run, 14th), Minority Interest (one win from two), Stumblin In (one run, PU), Ardera Gun (one run, 4th) and Lariat (one run, 4th).
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