5:23 Haydock
A competitive Class 5 handicap over 1m6f on soft ground at Haydock brings together 13 modest performers, several of whom are dropping in class while others step up in trip or tackle the surface for the first time. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Dust Cover heading the list on 62, followed closely by Percy Jones (59), Velvet Whisper (58), Circuit Breaker (57) and Arrange (54). Recent form is mixed and the race looks open, though the strong pace anticipated should play to those capable of producing their effort late.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is expected to be strong, potentially setting the race up for hold-up performers as the leaders come back to the field late on. Velvet Whisper and Circuit Breaker are the types to take the field along or race prominently, while Joanna Hiffernan could also be forward. Most of the principals and many of the remainder prefer to be held up, so the key question is whether the early gallop collapses in the soft conditions and hands the advantage to those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dust Cover KTB Selection62/100
Dust Cover is a modest performer whose recent form line of 102545 shows flashes of ability mixed with plenty of ordinary runs. He steps up to 1m6f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question, while his sole start on soft ground brought no win or place. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Haydock from a small sample of two runs with an A/E of 5.12, and Jack Mitchell brings a 17% strike rate at the track from 118 rides with an A/E of 1.12. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he drops in class from a middle draw. The KTB Fit rating of 62 marks him out as the selection.
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2Percy Jones59/100
Percy Jones is a modest performer who has been competitive without winning of late and arrives in reasonable form after a string of placed efforts including his recent 364423 figures. He has won over today's trip though his record on soft ground shows two places from six starts without a win, and he was only fifth on his one run at Haydock. The trainer's 5% strike rate at the track from 94 runs with an A/E of 0.65 adds no encouragement, though Paddy Bradley is effective here with a 25% strike rate and A/E of 2.01 from 12 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, he drops in class from draw 10 and is rated 59 on KTB Fit.
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3Velvet Whisper58/100
Velvet Whisper is a modest performer who won over 1m4f on soft ground last year but has been largely out of form since, as her figures of 1-8863 suggest. She steps up in trip today for the first time in a serious way and that remains an open question at this level. The trainer strikes at a solid 18% rate at Haydock from 96 runs with an A/E of 1.06, while Hector Crouch is effective at the track with a 17% strike rate and A/E of 0.98 from 161 rides. She tends to make the running or race on the pace and has a 1-2 record on soft with one placed effort. KTB rates her 58.
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4Circuit Breaker57/100
Circuit Breaker is a modest performer who has been placed on both previous runs at Haydock and handles soft ground with one win from six starts and two places. He drops back from 2m to a trip where he has been placed twice without winning, and first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer has a solid 14% strike rate at Haydock from 35 runs with an A/E of 0.93, and Cieren Fallon brings an 18% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.03 from 145 rides. He tends to make the running or race on the pace and his recent form reads 263644. KTB gives him a Fit rating of 57.
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5Arrange54/100
Arrange is a modest performer who has been running consistently this year with a string of placed efforts shown by his 062232 figures. He has won over today's trip and on soft ground with one win from seven starts and five places, while his record at Haydock reads one win from three starts. The yard's 10% strike rate at the track from 104 runs with an A/E of 0.78 is modest but established, though Billy Garritty has a low 2% strike rate here from 53 rides with an A/E of 0.15. Usually held up with high confidence, he drops in class from draw 6 and carries a KTB Fit of 54.
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6Marbuzet48/100
Marbuzet is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and arrives off the back of a win at Thirsk. Dropping back from 2m to a trip he has won at before is a plus, though his record on soft ground is poor with no win or place from two starts and he was well held on his only previous run at Haydock. The yard's modest record at the track adds little confidence.
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7Joanna Hiffernan47/100
Joanna Hiffernan is a limited performer who has shown steady placed form over longer distances, finishing second on her last two starts. She now drops back to an untried 1m6f which asks a fresh question of her, and she has no experience of soft ground. The trainer has a strong 35% strike rate at Haydock from 40 runs.
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8Good Onya Mate45/100
Good Onya Mate is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the frame on four of his last six starts. He has placed once at this trip and the trainer holds a solid 15% strike rate at Haydock from a big sample of 364 runs, though soft ground remains a question as his one run on it produced no win or place.
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9Ottoman42/100
Ottoman is a modest performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and a string of placed efforts. Placed on his only visit to Haydock, he steps up to an untested 1m6f on soft ground that he has never encountered so both trip and going remain open questions. The yard has a 10% strike rate here from 89 runs.
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10Billy No Mates41/100
Billy No Mates is a limited handicapper who has won three times at Haydock from eight runs and also has a solid record at today's trip. He acts on soft ground with two wins and four places from 16 starts and the yard's 12% strike rate at the track from a big sample is respectable, though a recent run of modest form leaves him with questions to answer from a wide draw.
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11Shaffron40/100
Shaffron is a limited performer on the balance of his eight runs and recent form figures of 59-932. He steps up to an unproven 1m6f today which asks a fresh question while his sole soft-ground start brought no win or place. This is the horse's first visit to Haydock and the yard has a 10% strike rate from 52 runs at the track.
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12Kotari35/100
Kotari is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in his last six starts and drops back from 2m3f to a trip where he has been beaten all six times. He has handled soft ground in the past but without winning or placing, and this is his first run at Haydock. The yard's modest record here adds little encouragement.
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13Togeather Forever31/100
Togeather Forever is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date. The step up to 1m6f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest record at Haydock offers no encouragement. Lauren Young takes the ride on a horse with plenty to prove.
KTB verdict
Dust Cover is the KTB Selection. He is rated the best on Fit at 62 and drops in class while the trainer's small-sample record at Haydock is eye-catching. His hold-up style should be favoured if the strong pace collapses late on soft ground, though the step up to 1m6f is an unknown. Main dangers are Percy Jones, who arrives in consistent form and is another who wants to come late, and Velvet Whisper, who has the speed to set the pace on a ground she likes. Circuit Breaker and Arrange are also capable of playing a part if the race shape unfolds as expected.
KTB Selection Dust Cover
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:05 UTC, 25 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Dust Cover | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Percy Jones | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Velvet Whisper | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Circuit Breaker | 15/2 | BetMGM |
| Arrange | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Marbuzet | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Joanna Hiffernan | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Good Onya Mate | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Ottoman | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Billy No Mates | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| Shaffron | 9/1 | 7Bet |
| Kotari | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Togeather Forever | 50/1 | Bet Victor |
This is the narrative read of the 5:23 Haydock. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Haydock racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Haydock results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Velvet Whisper, Circuit Breaker and Joanna Hiffernan are the types to make the running or race prominently.
Who is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit rating?
Dust Cover is the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 62.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Dust Cover, Percy Jones, Arrange, Marbuzet and Togeather Forever are dropping in class.
Which horses have previous placed form at Haydock?
Circuit Breaker has been placed on both previous runs here, Billy No Mates has won three times from eight runs, Arrange has won once from three starts, and Ottoman has been placed on his only visit.
Which principals are unproven on soft ground?
Dust Cover has one run on soft with no win or place, while Velvet Whisper and Circuit Breaker have soft-ground form.
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