7:42 Wolverhampton (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 1m4f51y on the standard surface at Wolverhampton promises a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove an advantage. The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, with the majority of the field inclined to be held up, so the race is likely to revolve around timing and positioning in the straight. KTB's Fit scores highlight It's A Love Thing as the top-rated on the numbers despite a modest recent run of form, while the principals are headed by a clutch of limited performers with varying degrees of course and trip experience.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the race is set to be steadily-run and tactical, where those able to produce their effort from a handy position late in the straight may hold the key. Most of the field, including all five principals, are typically held up and will look to come from off the pace, placing emphasis on the ability to quicken at the right moment in a race that could easily turn into a sprint for the line. The key question is which of these late runners can best navigate the traffic and find the clearest run as the field bunches up turning in.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1It's A Love Thing KTB Selection64/100
It's A Love Thing is a limited performer who has won three times here from 13 starts but has been out of form for some time with recent figures of 678083. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance in the past. The yard's 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 51 runs is solid while Jonny Peate knows the place well with a 10% strike rate from 193 rides. He handles standard going, having recorded five wins from 36 starts on it, and his held-up run-style should suit the expected tactical nature of the race. Drawn in stall 1 he has every chance to get a good position early before delivering his effort late.
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2Forever Perfect57/100
Forever Perfect is a limited performer who has shown a bit more at this track than elsewhere, winning once from five runs here. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance, though the recent form figures of 223009 suggest he has gone off the boil. First-time headgear is now applied in a bid to spark a revival. The trainer's 12% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 209 runs and the jockey's 13% strike rate from 96 rides here add some encouragement, as does his record of one win from eight starts on standard going. Like most of his rivals he is usually held up and will need the steadily-run race to unfold in his favour.
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3Satyress56/100
Satyress arrives in excellent order with four straight wins including three at this trip from four attempts. The limited-class performer handles standard ground and has a solid recent record on the all-weather. Trainer Harriet Bethell has a 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton while jockey Sean Dylan Bowen is 0-4 here. Usually held up, her run-style should be suited by the lack of an obvious pace-setter, allowing her to come from off the pace in what is likely to be a tactical affair. Drawn in stall 8 she has a fair chance of getting a clear run if the race develops as expected.
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4Arlecchino's Rex53/100
Arlecchino's Rex is a limited performer who has won twice at Wolverhampton from 16 runs and also scored on his only previous attempt at this trip. He showed a return to form when winning over C&D last time but his overall record in this grade remains modest. Trainer Mark Usher operates at an 8% strike rate here from 1202 runs while Rose Dawes, claiming 5 lb, has a 15% strike rate from 46 rides at the track. With three wins from 21 starts on standard going he should handle conditions, and his usual held-up style fits the steadily-run shape that is anticipated.
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5Grey Sands48/100
Grey Sands is a limited horse who has shown mixed form this year with a win on standard ground but has struggled in recent runs after a promising start, posting figures of 213755. He drops back from 2m today to a trip he has never tried which asks a fresh question of him. The yard have no previous runners at Wolverhampton while Dougie Costello has an 8% strike rate from 753 rides here. One win from seven starts on standard going offers some hope, and his held-up run-style should be compatible with the tactical pace that is likely to unfold.
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6Lawmans Blis47/100
Lawmans Blis is a limited performer who has done most of his winning here at Wolverhampton, landing five of his 16 runs including a success over this trip. He has been in and out of form this year with three wins from his last six starts but is drawn wide in stall 11. The trainer operates at a 6% strike rate from 106 runs at the track while the jockey is yet to add to his modest record here.
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7Highland Harvey46/100
Highland Harvey is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level, finishing in the first three in five of his last six starts. He has shown he can be competitive on the all-weather, placing three times from nine runs on standard going, and he has form over today's trip plus a placed effort here from his one visit to Wolverhampton. The yard's record at the track is too small a sample to judge while the 5 lb claimer takes the ride.
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8Baron Wagstaff45/100
Baron Wagstaff is limited on what he has shown in five runs and looks up against it from a modest level. Has already been tried over this trip and at this track without any encouragement. Trainer records a 6% strike rate here from a big sample of rides.
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9Make It Up43/100
Make It Up is a limited performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing third on his most recent visit here. Placed twice at this trip and twice on standard ground without winning either, he looks exposed now after eight runs this year. Trainer has a solid 14% strike-rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample.
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10Keeper of Secrets40/100
Keeper of Secrets is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and remains winless on both this track and this surface. Steps up in trip for the first time with first-time headgear applied but has already been tried twice at this distance without success. Trainer has a solid 12% strike rate here from a big sample.
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11Implied Volatility38/100
Implied Volatility is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent starts and has failed to win or place in five runs at this track. The step up to 1m4f is an unknown and the yard's modest 10% strike-rate here from a big sample offers no particular encouragement. Going is equally unproven with no win or place from seven starts on standard.
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12Late Claim38/100
Late Claim is a limited handicapper who has been placed twice over this trip at Wolverhampton without winning. Consistent rather than progressive on his recent starts and the latest form figures show no upward curve. Trainer's modest 10% strike-rate here from a big sample and the horse's own 0-6 course record underline that he is more likely to fill a minor placing than score.
KTB verdict
It's A Love Thing is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of course experience and suitability to the expected steadily-run pace. Three course wins from 13 starts, allied to previous placed efforts at this trip, give him a solid platform despite his recent modest form of 678083, and the trainer's healthy record at Wolverhampton adds further confidence. The main dangers are headed by Satyress, who arrives on the back of four straight wins and should relish the tactical nature of the race, while Arlecchino's Rex is respected after his recent C&D success. Forever Perfect and Grey Sands cannot be entirely dismissed if the first-time headgear or the drop in trip brings about improvement.
KTB Selection It's A Love Thing
This is the narrative read of the 7:42 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so it is likely to be a steadily-run affair where being handy pays.
Which horse has the strongest course record at Wolverhampton?
It's A Love Thing has won three times here from 13 starts while Lawmans Blis has won five times from 16 runs at the track.
How many of the principals are wearing headgear for the first time?
Forever Perfect is wearing first-time headgear and Keeper of Secrets is also in first-time headgear though he is not among the principals.
Which runner has the best recent winning sequence?
Satyress has four straight wins including three at this trip from four attempts.
What does the trainer/jockey combination for the selection show?
The trainer and jockey record for It's A Love Thing is 0/12 (0%) with an A/E of 0.00 and -£12.00 LSP.
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