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Trainer profile

Dave Roberts

491 runners in the lifetime window · 77 individual horses
As at 1 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Runners today 91% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
31–491
Wins / Runs
6.3%
Strike rate
n=491
112 (23%)
Placed
0.91
Fair A/E
n=489 · 0.78 incl. margin
−183.59
£1 level stake
n=491 at SP · −37.4%
£255k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
10%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91).

Deterministic profile computed from 491 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 1 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Nov Lee Edwards: 7.1% from 406 Claiming riders: 7.1%
The read

It is weakest at Uttoxeter (2.4% over 41 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.7% (n=149, Fair A/E 0.69). Lee Edwards rides 83% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.1%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (11.3%, n=71). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 38 runners, 6.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a break of 180+ days: Fair A/E 0.63 across 84 runners (2.4% strike, −61.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: G'day Aussie (GB) — 6 wins from 36 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.7%−3.6
n=149 · A/E 0.69 · £1 −96.17
New recruits · first run for the yard
3.3%−3.0
n=61 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −43.67
Debutants · first career start
5.9%−0.4
n=17 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +9.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
6.3%+0.0
n=16 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +1.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
10.7%+4.4
n=28 · A/E 1.93 · £1 −6.50
When favourite
15.4%
n=13 · A/E 0.54 · £1 −5.17
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.1%+0.8
n=85 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −18.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In NH Flat races 0% vs 6.3% · n=38
Off a 8-14-day break 11.3% vs 6.3% · n=71
Off a break of 180+ days 2.4% vs 6.3% · n=84
At Uttoxeter 2.4% vs 6.3% · n=41
With horses switching code 3.4% vs 6.3% · n=118
With a new jockey booking 3.4% vs 6.3% · n=117
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 332 23 6.9% −90.17
Chase 79 6 7.6% −37.42
Flat 42 2 4.8% −18.00
NH Flat 38 0 0% −38.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 278 19 6.8% −81.17
Good to Soft 63 4 6.3% −38.42
Soft 51 2 3.9% −35.50
Standard (AW) 38 2 5.3% −14.00
Good to Firm 29 1 3.4% −12.00
Heavy 29 2 6.9% −10.50
Firm 3 1 33.3% +8.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Worcester 98 7 7.1% −33.00
Bangor-on-Dee 59 3 5.1% −45.67
Uttoxeter 41 1 2.4% −31.00
Ludlow 26 1 3.8% +0.00
Stratford 25 1 4% −10.00
Hereford 22 0 0% −22.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 21 2 9.5% +3.00
Market Rasen 19 3 15.8% +22.00
Southwell 19 2 10.5% +2.50
Southwell (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00
Cartmel 13 0 0% −13.00
Fontwell 12 0 0% −12.00
Ffos Las 12 1 8.3% −3.50
Towcester 12 1 8.3% −1.00
Warwick 12 2 16.7% +3.33

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 255 17 6.7% −118.42
Class 4 176 12 6.8% −29.17
Class 6 32 2 6.3% −8.00
Class 3 23 0 0% −23.00
Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 18 2 11.1% 0.42 −10.17
2nd–3rd fav 66 9 13.6% 0.88 −21.92
4th–6th fav 194 16 8.2% 1.23 −13.00
7th+ in betting 213 4 1.9% 0.64 −138.50
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
90.5% completed · 411 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 79 82.3% 1 5 7 1 0
Hurdle 332 92.5% 7 1 16 0 1
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
G'day Aussie (GB)from Brian Ellison 36 6 15 18 Oct 25
Stamina Chope (FR)from Gavin Cromwell 33 4 11 19 Oct 26
Racing Spirit (GB)from Kevin Frost 31 1 12 23 Jul 23
Highland River (GB)from Aytach Sadik · then Edward Bevan 26 2 8 11 Jun 15
Quick Of The Night (GB) 24 3 6 1 Nov 26
Milan Of Crystal (IRE)from Robert Stephens 24 3 10 9 Nov 20
Tantalized (GB)from Andrew Balding 20 0 3 28 Jun 15
Play Pretend (IRE) 15 2 6 10 Jul 26
Raven's Raft (IRE)from David Loughnane 14 0 2 23 Aug 22
Chicago Alley (GB)from Tony Carroll 14 0 1 22 Jun 14
Moaning Butcher (GB)from Mark Johnston 13 0 0 15 Sep 14
Vif Argent (FR)from Andrew Reid 12 0 4 16 Dec 19
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 77 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 50 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Frank Sheridan (4) and Tony Carroll (4); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

8 have since run for another yard; 52 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
1 from 4
Only 4 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
6301123152210105
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderLee Edwards
83% of all rides
7.1% SR · A/E 0.99
RiderRWSR£1
Lee Edwards 406 29 7.1% −122.59
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
31
Archived wins
£255k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 5 wins
Milan Of Crystal (IRE) — Central Roofing West Wales Mares' Handicap Hurdle Worcester · Oct 2017 · Class 4
£6,330
G'day Aussie (GB) — Allan Atkinson Memorial Handicap Hurdle Stratford · Jul 2018 · Class 4
£5,328
G'day Aussie (GB) — Bangor-On-Dee Handicap Hurdle Bangor-on-Dee · Jul 2025 · Class 5
£5,281
Notable horses
G'day Aussie (GB) Stamina Chope (FR) Quick Of The Night (GB) Milan Of Crystal (IRE) Highland River (GB) Play Pretend (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Aussie Rules (USA) 16.7% · 6–36
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,515 runs since 2010 (297 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 177.
Muhaymin (USA) 12.1% · 4–33
Progeny have won 10.6% of 662 runs since 2010 (100 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 7.1% from 113.
Sir Percy (GB) 3.2% · 1–31
Progeny have won 11.1% of 7,150 runs since 2011 (473 horses).
Indian Creek (GB) 7.7% · 2–26
Progeny have won 5.9% of 85 runs since 2008 (5 horses).
Gentlewave (IRE) 12.5% · 3–24
Progeny have won 13% of 1,657 runs since 2010 (219 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.3% from 432.
Milan (GB) 12.5% · 3–24
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,866 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 1 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 491 · newest first

The latest 50 of 491 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 22 May 2011 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Huntingdon Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Copybet Overnight Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 25f · Good · 8 ran 4th 5/1
01 Nov 26 Huntingdon Shallow River (IRE)J: Lee Edwards CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Claiming Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 1st 3/1
22 Oct 26 Ffos Las Shallow River (IRE)J: Lee Edwards bettingsites.co.uk Same Day Payouts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 24f · Soft · 8 ran 7th 20/1
19 Oct 26 Plumpton Stamina Chope (FR)J: Lee Edwards Aldaniti Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 3rd 11/4
17 Oct 26 Market Rasen Troy Story (GB)J: Lee Edwards Pertemps Network Maiden Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 8 ran 5th 150/1
13 Oct 26 Hereford Whinney Hill (GB)J: Lee Edwards Betting.Bet Free Bets Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Firm · 8 ran 7th 22/1
10 Oct 26 Hexham Shallow River (IRE)J: Lee Edwards Tackling Insights Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 23.5f · Good · 6 ran 4th 20/1
08 Oct 26 Market Rasen Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Market Rasen Racecourse Caravan Park Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 8 ran 1st 9/2
07 Oct 26 Worcester Billy Butcher (IRE)J: Lee Edwards Pj Nicholls Kgm Korea Genuinely Made Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 13/2
04 Oct 26 Uttoxeter Troy Story (GB)J: Lee Edwards F Ball 140th Anniversary Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 40/1
25 Sep 26 Worcester Whinney Hill (GB)J: Lee Edwards Copybet Fixed Brush Hurdle Series Final Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (gbb Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good · 15 ran 12th 100/1
10 Sep 26 Worcester Troy Story (GB)J: Lee Edwards CopyBet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 11th 100/1
10 Sep 26 Worcester Billy Butcher (IRE)J: Lewis Saunders CopyBet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 6th 100/1
05 Sep 26 Stratford Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Andy Townsend Memorial Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 22f · Good · 9 ran 4th 13/2
04 Sep 26 Worcester Stamina Chope (FR)J: Lee Edwards Copybet Bog Now For Saturday's Racing Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good · 10 ran 6th 22/1
23 Aug 26 Worcester Kottayam (FR)J: Lee Edwards Neu-Servo Supports Larsen's Pride Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 9th 22/1
23 Aug 26 Worcester Whinney Hill (GB)J: Lee Edwards Neu-Servo Phils Last Shift Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 11 ran 5th 11/1
15 Aug 26 Market Rasen Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards oddschecker.com Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good · 10 ran 6th 14/1
22 Jul 26 Worcester Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Bathroom Studio Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20f · Good · 13 ran 10th 7/1
10 Jul 26 Worcester Quick Of The Night (GB)J: Lee Edwards Amodil Group Mares' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 3/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 3 runs (won 0) · to 22 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Dave Roberts's strike rate?
Dave Roberts has won 31 of 491 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 1 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Dave Roberts do best at?
Worcester by strike rate: 7 wins from 98 runners (7.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Dave Roberts?
Lee Edwards, with 406 runners since 2008 — 83% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (7.1%).
Is Dave Roberts in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 4 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Dave Roberts's Fair A/E?
0.91, from 489 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 1 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).