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Trainer profile

Fergal Birrane

407 runners in the lifetime window · 37 individual horses
As at 10 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 29 days ago 91% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
12–407
Wins / Runs
2.9%
Strike rate
n=407
45 (11%)
Placed
0.63
Fair A/E
n=406 · 0.51 incl. margin
−221.67
£1 level stake
n=407 at SP · −54.5%
£167k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.63).

Deterministic profile computed from 407 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 10 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 4.1%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.3%−1.6
n=75 · A/E 0.44 · £1 +26.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.3%+2.4
n=19 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −4.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=23 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −23.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
5%+2.1
n=20 · A/E 1.40 · £1 +81.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.63 · £1 −2.25
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.1%+1.2
n=218 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −63.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−2.9
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
With Denis Linehan 15.2% vs 2.9% · n=33
With C&D winners 8.7% vs 2.9% · n=46
At Dundalk (AW) 5.4% vs 2.9% · n=186
Over 1m2f – 1m4f 5.7% vs 2.9% · n=88
On Soft going 0% vs 2.9% · n=67
Off a 8-14-day break 5.6% vs 2.9% · n=72
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 370 12 3.2% −184.67
Hurdle 33 0 0% −33.00
Chase 2 0 0% −2.00
NH Flat 2 0 0% −2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 207 10 4.8% −137.67
Good 75 1 1.3% +26.00
Soft 67 0 0% −67.00
Heavy 25 1 4% −10.00
Good to Soft 20 0 0% −20.00
Good to Firm 13 0 0% −13.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 186 10 5.4% −116.67
Roscommon 32 1 3.1% −17.00
Ballinrobe 20 0 0% −20.00
Sligo 15 0 0% −15.00
Naas 15 0 0% −15.00
Wolverhampton (AW) 14 0 0% −14.00
Limerick 13 0 0% −13.00
Cork 12 0 0% −12.00
Galway 12 0 0% −12.00
Tipperary 11 1 9.1% +90.00
Navan 11 0 0% −11.00
Leopardstown 11 0 0% −11.00
Fairyhouse 9 0 0% −9.00
Gowran Park 8 0 0% −8.00
Curragh 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 5 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 9 1 11.1% 0.44 −5.25
2nd–3rd fav 32 5 15.6% 1.01 −6.42
4th–6th fav 85 3 3.5% 0.57 −60.00
7th+ in betting 281 3 1.1% 0.45 −150.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
California Lad (GB)from Harry Dunlop · then Ivan Furtado 36 3 7 22 Jun 20
Vormir (IRE)from G M Lyons 34 1 3 28 May 24
Tamazu (IRE) 24 1 4 12 Oct 26
Glenmoore (GB) 24 2 5 20 Mar 20
I Know I Can (GB)from John M Oxx 23 0 5 12 Sep 23
Boasty (IRE)from Charlie Fellowes · then Ivan Furtado 18 0 3 14 Jan 22
Roman Warrior (GB)from Harry Dunlop 17 0 2 10 Apr 21
Bar Room Bore (IRE)from Mrs John Harrington 15 0 0 14 Jan 22
Rock On Dandy (FR)from Harry Dunlop · then Gavin Hernon 15 3 4 4 Jan 19
But I Like It (IRE)from Joseph Patrick O'Brien 14 0 0 15 Jun 21
Captain Dion (GB)from Kevin Ryan · then Ivan Furtado 14 0 0 7 Nov 18
Dubirango (IRE) 13 1 2 19 May 25
All 37 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 37 horses listed, 20 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Harry Dunlop (6) and Charlie Fellowes (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

14 have since run for another yard, most often for Ivan Furtado (4) and Harry Dunlop (3); 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
3164000050039
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDenis Linehan
8% of all rides
15.2% SR · A/E 1.40
RiderRWSR£1
Denis Linehan 33 5 15.2% −7.67
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
12
Archived wins
£167k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 5 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Rock On Dandy (FR) — ASM Chartered Accountants Race Dundalk (AW) · Feb 2018
£12,320
Tamazu (IRE) — Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Tipperary · Aug 2022
£8,850
Sir Danilo (GB) — Celebrate At Dundalk Stadium Maiden Dundalk (AW) · Mar 2018
£7,392
Notable horses
California Lad (GB) Rock On Dandy (FR) Glenmoore (GB) Vormir (IRE) Tamazu (IRE) Dubirango (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Equiano (FR) 5.3% · 2–38
Progeny have won 9.1% of 7,543 runs since 2014 (549 horses).
Aussie Rules (USA) 8.3% · 3–36
Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,515 runs since 2010 (297 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 177.
Elzaam (AUS) 2.9% · 1–34
Progeny have won 9.2% of 4,531 runs since 2016 (374 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.2% from 328.
Dandy Man (IRE) 0% · 0–31
Progeny have won 9.1% of 14,989 runs since 2013 (930 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.3% from 171.
Sir Prancealot (IRE) 0% · 0–24
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,688 runs since 2016 (216 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 13.6% from 627. Weakest on Heavy going: 5.3% from 171.
Tamayuz (GB) 4.2% · 1–24
Progeny have won 10.4% of 5,189 runs since 2012 (401 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 10 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 410 · newest first

The latest 50 of 410 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 June 2006 to 12 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) Tamazu (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Roscommon Racecourse On Facebook Handicap (Div I)7.5f · Soft · 14 ran 14th 28/1
12 Oct 26 Roscommon (IRE) California Max (IRE)J: Rory Mulligan Roscommon Racecourse (C & G) Maiden7.5f · Soft · 11 ran 10th 250/1
22 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Tamazu (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Rose Hotel Handicap7f · Yielding · 15 ran 12th 20/1
31 Aug 26 Roscommon (IRE) Tamazu (IRE)J: Seamie Heffernan Elphin Handicap7.5f · Yielding · 14 ran 5th 50/1
19 Jun 26 Limerick Poet's Willow (IRE)J: Mel Sheridan Twilight Racing Summer Series Maiden (Div 2)7f · Soft · 13 ran 12th 300/1
10 Jun 26 Limerick Poet's Willow (IRE)J: Mel Sheridan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden8f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 12th 200/1
11 May 26 Roscommon Poet's Willow (IRE)J: Mel Sheridan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden12f · Good · 12 ran 12th 250/1
25 Apr 26 Limerick Poet's Willow (IRE)J: Mel Sheridan Anglo Printers Maiden8f · Yielding · 15 ran 15th 125/1
27 Mar 26 Dundalk (AW) Poet's Willow (IRE)J: Jack Cleary BAR 1 Betting 'Join Our Weekly Rewards' Maiden8f · Standard · 12 ran 12th 300/1
13 Feb 26 Dundalk (AW) Poet's Willow (IRE)J: Adam Caffrey Happy Valentine's Weekend Maiden12f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 150/1
04 Sep 25 Laytown (AW) Tamazu (IRE)J: Daniel King Gilna's Cottage Inn Handicap (0-60)6f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 25/1
15 Aug 25 Dundalk (AW) Glasheen Girl (IRE)J: Robyn Donaghue-Leahy Bar One Racing 'Visit Our New Website' Apprentice Maiden7f · Standard · 14 ran 14th 250/1
18 Jul 25 Down Royal Dabirsim Flyer (FR)J: Wesley Joyce Ampion Testing Across UK And Ireland Handicap (0-60)5f · Good · 12 ran 12th 100/1
12 Jul 25 Dundalk (AW) Glasheen Girl (IRE)J: Rory Cleary Catherine Allison & Co. Solicitors Maiden8f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 300/1
25 Jun 25 Naas Dabirsim Flyer (FR)J: James Ryan ARKequine Handicap (0-60)5f · Good · 12 ran 12th 50/1
21 Jun 25 Limerick Glasheen Girl (IRE)J: Yudish Geerdharry Darren's Way Maiden7f · Good · 13 ran 13th 300/1
23 May 25 Curragh Glasheen Girl (IRE)J: Yudish Geerdharry QuinnBet Irish European Breeders Fund Fillies Maiden6f · Good · 10 ran 10th 250/1
19 May 25 Roscommon Dubirango (IRE)J: Yudish Geerdharry McGowan Accountancy Services Handicap (0-60)7.5f · Good · 12 ran 11th 100/1
10 May 25 Naas Glasheen Girl (IRE)J: Yudish Geerdharry Nursery Of Champions Fillies Maiden8f · Good · 13 ran 13th 300/1
09 May 25 Ballinrobe Dabirsim Flyer (FR)J: Yudish Geerdharry SIS Supporting Irish Racing Maiden9.5f · Good · 11 ran 11th 200/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Fergal Birrane's strike rate?
Fergal Birrane has won 12 of 407 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 10 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Fergal Birrane do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 10 wins from 186 runners (5.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Fergal Birrane's Fair A/E?
0.63, from 406 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 10 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).