What is Geoff Oldroyd's strike rate?

Geoff Oldroyd has won 119 of 1,113 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Geoff Oldroyd do best at?

Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 68 runners (19.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Geoff Oldroyd?

P J McDonald, with 197 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (14.7%).

Is Geoff Oldroyd in form?

Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Geoff Oldroyd's Fair A/E?

1.16, from 1,107 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Geoff Oldroyd

1,113 runners in the lifetime window · 98 individual horses

As at 27 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 10 days ago 99% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

119–1,113

Wins / Runs

10.7%

Strike rate

n=1,113

298 (27%)

Placed

1.16

Fair A/E

n=1,107 · 0.98 incl. margin

−32.48

£1 level stake

n=1,113 at SP · −2.9%

£1.50m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

15.1%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 60 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 11% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.16). In Group and Graded company the record reads 19% (48 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 1,113 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 27 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Oct–Feb 33.7% when favourite P J McDonald: 14.7% from 197 Group/Graded: 18.8% Sends off the favourite in 8% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Newcastle (AW) (19.1%, n=68), clear of the yard's 10.7% baseline. It is weakest at Newcastle (0% over 39 runners) — the widest gap in the record. In Group and Graded company the record reads well at 18.8% (n=48, Fair A/E 1.94). P J McDonald rides 18% of the entries and edges the yard's average (14.7% vs 10.7%, A/E 1.43) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 9 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy at Redcar (Oct 2010, £130,003). The stable star of the record: Just Bond (IRE) — 13 wins from 89 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Oct–Feb.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 10.7% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.4%−1.3

n=203 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −25.13

New recruits · first run for the yard

4.5%−6.2

n=22 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −17.50

Debutants · first career start

10.8%+0.1

n=65 · A/E 2.12 · £1 +84.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.3%−1.4

n=43 · A/E 1.21 · £1 +23.62

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

4.3%−6.4

n=23 · A/E 0.52 · £1 −15.00

When favourite

33.7%

n=89 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +14.57

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

9.3%−1.4

n=355 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −26.75

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

18.8%+8.1

n=48 · A/E 1.94 · £1 +34.25

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 10.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Robert Tart 25% vs 10.7% · n=40

With Silvestre De Sousa 21.7% vs 10.7% · n=60

On last-time-out winners 20% vs 10.7% · n=115

At Newcastle 0% vs 10.7% · n=39

With Slade O'Hara 0% vs 10.7% · n=34

At Newcastle (AW) 19.1% vs 10.7% · n=68

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 1,106 119 10.8% −25.48

Hurdle 4 0 0% −4.00

NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 447 59 13.2% +22.26

Good to Firm 267 27 10.1% +7.38

Good 210 18 8.6% +21.00

Good to Soft 92 5 5.4% −60.00

Soft 77 4 5.2% −50.50

Heavy 14 5 35.7% +30.63

Firm 6 1 16.7% −3.25

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Wolverhampton (AW) 247 29 11.7% −47.25

Redcar 119 13 10.9% +4.63

York 104 9 8.7% +2.50

Southwell (AW) 98 12 12.2% +6.98

Doncaster 92 6 6.5% −30.00

Newcastle (AW) 68 13 19.1% +61.53

Beverley 67 7 10.4% −7.50

Thirsk 46 3 6.5% −7.00

Haydock 43 6 14% +8.13

Newcastle 39 0 0% −39.00

Ripon 26 3 11.5% +45.50

Lingfield (AW) 22 5 22.7% +13.00

Musselburgh 20 3 15% +2.50

Carlisle 17 2 11.8% −5.75

Pontefract 15 2 13.3% +2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 348 38 10.9% +11.66

Class 6 292 28 9.6% −37.47

Class 4 216 27 12.5% +55.50

Class 2 112 8 7.1% −67.75

Class 3 89 9 10.1% −20.67

Class 1 48 9 18.8% +34.25

Class 7 8 0 0% −8.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 104 34 32.7% 1.30 +17.07

2nd–3rd fav 227 39 17.2% 1.08 −30.05

4th–6th fav 327 27 8.3% 1.08 −23.50

7th+ in betting 455 19 4.2% 1.19 +4.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Just Bond (IRE)from Bryan Smart 68 6 21 11 Aug 12

Alfred Hutchinson (GB)then David O'Meara 48 8 21 18 Nov 15

Bond City (IRE)from Bryan Smart 44 4 7 27 Aug 11

Chosen Forever (GB)then Lee James 41 7 15 19 Jul 13

Forever's Girl (GB) 41 8 19 6 Jan 12

Bond Fastrac (GB)then Shaun Harris 40 5 12 17 Feb 15

Ladies Are Forever (GB) 34 8 13 4 Oct 14

Jamaican Bolt (IRE)from Bryan Smart · then David O'Meara 29 3 12 7 Nov 15

Lady Royale (GB) 29 3 7 11 Aug 13

Admiral Bond (IRE) 27 1 8 26 Feb 10

Project Geofin (GB) 25 4 9 10 Oct 26

Reggie Bond (GB) 25 5 11 3 Nov 15

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 98 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 6 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 15 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Bryan Smart (9); 45 had their first archived run for this yard.

16 have since run for another yard, most often for David O'Meara (5) and Ian McInnes (2); 44 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 2

Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

1714814879108121413

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderP J McDonald

18% of all rides
14.7% SR · A/E 1.43

RiderRWSR£1

P J McDonald 197 29 14.7% +133.60

Barry McHugh 118 8 6.8% −23.50

Dale Swift 90 7 7.8% −23.00

Tom Eaves 66 3 4.5% −52.24

Harry Russell 65 12 18.5% +85.50

Silvestre De Sousa 60 13 21.7% +32.12

Duran Fentiman 41 3 7.3% +1.75

Robert Tart 40 10 25% +0.75

Slade O'Hara 34 0 0% −34.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→

134

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.60m

Prize money

2025

Best season · 15 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Ladies Are Forever (GB) — totepool Two-Year-Old Trophy (Listed) Redcar · Oct 2010 · Listed

£130,003

Air Force One (IRE) — Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap) York · Aug 2026 · Class 2

£69,579

Air Force One (IRE) — Betfred Portland (Class 2 Heritage Handicap) Doncaster · Sep 2026 · Class 2

£51,540

Notable horses

Just Bond (IRE) Alfred Hutchinson (GB) Forever's Girl (GB) Ladies Are Forever (GB) Chosen Forever (GB) Doctor Khan Junior (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Monsieur Bond (IRE) 11.2% · 47–420

Progeny have won 8.9% of 5,979 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Misu Bond (IRE) 8.5% · 9–106

Progeny have won 9.8% of 1,118 runs since 2008 (67 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.3% from 126.

Namid (GB) 8.8% · 6–68

Progeny have won 8.2% of 4,102 runs since 2008 (276 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 2.4% from 164. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 0.8% from 119.

Trans Island (GB) 9.1% · 4–44

Progeny have won 9% of 4,741 runs since 2008 (295 horses).

Choisir (AUS) 17.1% · 7–41

Progeny have won 10.7% of 5,779 runs since 2008 (392 horses).

Muhaarar (GB) 20% · 8–40

Progeny have won 11.6% of 4,796 runs since 2008 (412 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 27 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 1,304 · newest first

The latest 50 of 1,304 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 April 2006 to 17 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

17 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Monsieur Bondy (GB)J: Cam Hardie Saturday 24th October Gents Night Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 5 · 7f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/4

16 Oct 26 Redcar Reginald Charles (GB)J: P. J. McDonald racingtv.com Handicap StakesClass 6 · 7f · Good · 18 ran 8th 4/1

10 Oct 26 York Project Geofin (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Sky Bet Price Boosts Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)Class 4 · 10.5f · Good To Soft · 19 ran 13th 28/1

09 Oct 26 Newmarket In The Black (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Newmarket Academy Godolphin Beacon Project Cornwallis Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 9/2

03 Oct 26 Ascot Air Force One (IRE)J: P. J. McDonald Betmgm Rous Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 5f · Good To Firm · 11 ran 1st 17/2

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Monsieur Bondy (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Today's Wonderful Sponsors Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 10th 15/2

25 Sep 26 Newcastle (AW) Reginald Charles (GB)J: P. J. McDonald Mwh Treatment Handicap StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 4/1

22 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Managing Director (IRE)J: P. J. McDonald Free Bets On attheraces.com Handicap StakesClass 5 · 5f · Standard · 7 ran 4th 5/6F

12 Sep 26 Doncaster Air Force One (IRE)J: Clifford Lee Betfred Portland (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 5.5f · Good · 21 ran 1st 11/2

11 Sep 26 Doncaster In The Black (GB)J: P J McDonald Carlsberg Danish Pilsner Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2)Class 1 · 5f · Good · 11 ran 5th 50/1

06 Sep 26 York Managing Director (IRE)J: P J McDonald Fine Details Car Valeting Sprint Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5.5f · Good To Soft · 21 ran 11th 13/2

29 Aug 26 Beverley Project Geofin (GB)J: P J McDonald Dearing Plastics Celebrating 40 Years Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Soft · 8 ran 8th 17/2

22 Aug 26 York Pocklington (GB)J: Clifford Lee Sky Bet Constantine Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 13th 40/1

22 Aug 26 York Air Force One (IRE)J: P J McDonald Sky Bet Constantine Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 8th 4/1

20 Aug 26 York In The Black (GB)J: P J McDonald Sky Bet Lowther Stakes (Group 2)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 17 ran 8th 25/1

19 Aug 26 York Air Force One (IRE)J: P J McDonald Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap Stakes (Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 5.5f · Good · 21 ran 1st 13/2

15 Aug 26 Doncaster Project Geofin (GB)J: Donagh Murphy Suit Direct At Meadowhall Apprentice Handicap StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 3rd 11/4J

14 Aug 26 Thirsk Managing Director (IRE)J: P J McDonald Heineken 0% Handicap StakesClass 4 · 5f · Good · 9 ran 2nd 7/2

31 Jul 26 Newcastle (AW) Reginald Charles (GB)J: P J McDonald Quinnbet Extra Place Handicap Stakes (Div I)Class 6 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 10 ran 3rd 6/4F

25 Jul 26 York Pocklington (GB)J: Joanna Mason Sky Bet Dash (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)Class 2 · 6f · Good To Firm · 21 ran 14th 11/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Geoff Oldroyd's strike rate?: Geoff Oldroyd has won 119 of 1,113 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 10.7% (as at 27 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Geoff Oldroyd do best at?: Newcastle (AW) by strike rate: 13 wins from 68 runners (19.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Geoff Oldroyd?: P J McDonald, with 197 runners since 2008 — 18% of the total. That pairing has won 29 (14.7%).
Is Geoff Oldroyd in form?: Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Geoff Oldroyd's Fair A/E?: 1.16, from 1,107 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.