Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 8% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.10).
Deterministic profile computed from 659 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 7 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceFires Dec–FebLee Edwards: 7.9% from 240Claiming riders: 7.9%
The read
New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 0% (n=38, Fair A/E 0.00). Lee Edwards rides 36% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (7.9%, A/E 1.04) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 0% over 57 runners, 7.6pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the EBF/Thoroughbred Breeders' Association Mares' Novices' Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (Apr 2018, £22,780). The stable star of the record: Pret A Thou (FR) — 10 wins from 57 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Dec–Feb.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.5%−1.1
n=170 · A/E 1.37 · £1 −29.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−7.6
n=38 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −38.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−7.6
n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
4.3%−3.3
n=23 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
11.1%+3.5
n=18 · A/E 1.29 · £1 −8.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=14 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −1.38
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.9%+0.3
n=291 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −97.47
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
50%+42.4
n=2 · A/E 4.32 · £1 +2.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With C&D winners20.4% vs 7.6% · n=54
On last-time-out winners18% vs 7.6% · n=50
In NH Flat races0% vs 7.6% · n=57
With debutants0% vs 7.6% · n=39
With new recruits0% vs 7.6% · n=38
With Liam Heard0% vs 7.6% · n=36
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Chase3053712.1%−32.94
Hurdle291134.5%−161.87
NH Flat5700%−57.00
Flat600%−6.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good221115%−91.17
Soft1691710.1%−48.04
Good to Soft151127.9%−62.05
Heavy941010.6%−32.55
Good to Firm1900%−19.00
Standard (AW)500%−5.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Ludlow118119.3%−15.38
Bangor-on-Dee11254.5%−88.00
Uttoxeter9188.8%−46.88
Hereford3925.1%−18.00
Southwell3425.9%−21.67
Warwick3326.1%−25.17
Chepstow3200%−32.00
Worcester2827.1%+25.00
Leicester26726.9%+25.50
Huntingdon2129.5%−12.67
Stratford1715.9%−7.00
Towcester1516.7%−11.25
Market Rasen1218.3%−6.50
Wetherby10220%+26.00
Taunton800%−8.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 4323288.7%−124.34
Class 5253176.7%−77.05
Class 35846.9%−35.92
Class 61500%−15.00
Class 2700%−7.00
Class 13133.3%+1.50
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite26830.8%1.27+1.12
2nd–3rd fav1032019.4%1.21−6.93
4th–6th fav200157.5%1.04−71.00
7th+ in betting33072.1%0.86−181.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m220135.9%−116.09
2m1f – 2m4f216198.8%−62.67
2m5f – 3m183147.7%−87.38
Over 3m36411.1%+12.33
6f – 7f200%−2.00
1m2f – 1m4f100%−1.00
1m – 1m1f100%−1.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20082613.8%−9.00
20099111.1%−5.00
201033412.1%−16.34
201132412.5%+22.25
20122428.3%−13.88
20133425.9%−23.12
20143400%−34.00
201517317.6%−3.88
201650510%−6.17
201740410%+9.00
201864812.5%−27.67
20197879%−26.50
20207034.3%−31.00
20217633.9%−49.00
20225335.7%−24.50
20231900%−19.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps4364811%−42.06
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners228229.6%−30.92
11-13 runners17542.3%−138.67
5-7 runners1471812.2%−49.22
14-16 runners8655.8%−20.00
17+ runners1200%−12.00
2-4 runners1119.1%−7.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 80 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 2 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 60 horses listed, 28 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tom Dascombe (5) and James Unett (3); 32 had their first archived run for this yard.
19 have since run for another yard, most often for Belinda Clarke (5) and Dave Roberts (2); 41 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
91554900009512
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
59
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£457k
Prize money
2018
Best season · 8 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Progeny have won 14.7% of 143 runs since 2008 (7 horses).
Rudimentary (USA)18% · 9–50
Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,114 runs since 2008 (201 horses).
Midnight Legend (GB)8.7% · 4–46
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Kayf Tara (GB)9.4% · 3–32
Progeny have won 12.6% of 13,757 runs since 2008 (1,148 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 16.2% from 1,708.
Black Sam Bellamy (IRE)0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,687 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.
Sir Harry Lewis (USA)6.9% · 2–29
Progeny have won 11.8% of 2,425 runs since 2008 (190 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 17.3% from 306.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 7 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 762 · newest first
The latest 50 of 762 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 18 March 2005 to 22 May 2023.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is John Groucott's strike rate?
John Groucott has won 50 of 659 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.6% (as at 7 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Groucott do best at?
Ludlow by strike rate: 11 wins from 118 runners (9.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Groucott?
Lee Edwards, with 240 runners since 2008 — 36% of the total. That pairing has won 19 (7.9%).
What is John Groucott's Fair A/E?
1.10, from 658 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
John Groucott·SR 7.6%·A/E 1.10
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