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Trainer profile

John Long

161 runners in the lifetime window · 24 individual horses
As at 22 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Sep 2017 96% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
7–161
Wins / Runs
4.3%
Strike rate
n=161
22 (14%)
Placed
0.93
Fair A/E
n=161 · 0.69 incl. margin
−92.17
£1 level stake
n=161 at SP · −57.2%
£67,724
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.93).

Deterministic profile computed from 161 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 22 Oct 2026
The read

The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 3.3% strike, Fair A/E 0.78 and −94.17 to a £1 stake over 121 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. The yard also read well over 2m5f – 3m (8.6%, n=35). The record read poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 67 runners, 4.3pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
11.5%+7.2
n=26 · A/E 2.83 · £1 +10.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.3
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.3
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.3
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.3
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
66.7%
n=3 · A/E 4.04 · £1 +7.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.3%−1.0
n=121 · A/E 0.78 · £1 −94.17
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.3
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 4.3% · n=67
Over 2m5f – 3m 8.6% vs 4.3% · n=35
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 7% vs 4.3% · n=57
On Soft going 6.6% vs 4.3% · n=61
Off a 15-30-day break 2.3% vs 4.3% · n=43
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 101 3 3% −79.50
Chase 27 3 11.1% −2.67
NH Flat 26 1 3.8% −3.00
Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 61 4 6.6% −14.00
Good 36 1 2.8% −30.50
Heavy 31 1 3.2% −26.67
Good to Firm 22 1 4.5% −10.00
Good to Soft 6 0 0% −6.00
Firm 5 0 0% −5.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Limerick 25 0 0% −25.00
Cork 17 2 11.8% +11.50
Listowel 17 1 5.9% −6.00
Tramore 11 1 9.1% −3.00
Clonmel 10 1 10% −5.00
Thurles 7 0 0% −7.00
Kilbeggan 6 0 0% −6.00
Ballinrobe 6 0 0% −6.00
Roscommon 6 1 16.7% −1.67
Tipperary 5 0 0% −5.00
Galway 5 0 0% −5.00
Gowran Park 5 0 0% −5.00
Killarney 5 1 20% +7.00
Punchestown 5 0 0% −5.00
Wexford 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 3 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 5 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 6 2 33.3% 1.83 +4.50
2nd–3rd fav 8 2 25% 2.00 +4.33
4th–6th fav 37 1 2.7% 0.42 −26.00
7th+ in betting 110 2 1.8% 0.67 −75.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
89.1% completed · 128 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 27 74.1% 1 1 5 0 0
Hurdle 101 93.1% 2 3 2 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Baresi (IRE)from Michael Butler · then C Byrnes 26 3 9 11 Jun 13
Mileys Dream (IRE)then D E Fitzgerald 22 1 3 29 Sep 17
Caher Lass (IRE) 14 1 3 5 Aug 08
Rossbro Hall (IRE) 12 0 0 27 Aug 10
Slaney Time (IRE)from Anthony Mullins 10 0 1 23 Jul 11
Dickie Henderhoop (IRE)then Lucy Normile 9 0 0 22 Sep 10
Vintage Supreme (IRE)then John G Hayes 8 1 1 30 Nov 12
Sabre Mist (IRE)then Richard Anthony Foley 6 0 0 10 Sep 17
Where Is It (IRE) 6 0 0 1 Oct 08
Gone Wrong (IRE)then David Harry Kelly 5 0 1 11 Nov 12
Kilmurry Kid (IRE)then John G Hayes 5 1 1 25 Oct 12
Houmahaka (IRE)then Michael John O'Connor 5 0 0 30 Dec 10
All 24 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 24 horses listed, 6 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Michael Butler (2); 18 had their first archived run for this yard.

9 have since run for another yard, most often for John G Hayes (2); 15 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
00001500851100
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Joseph Holly 15 0 0% −15.00
Robert Jones 13 3 23.1% +1.83
B C Byrnes 9 0 0% −9.00
Mr G M Mangan 9 0 0% −9.00
Patrick Mangan 8 0 0% −8.00
Tommy Treacy 7 0 0% −7.00
Martin Ferris 7 0 0% −7.00
Danny Mullins 6 1 16.7% +5.00
Mr M J O'Connor 5 2 40% +26.00
Stephen Gray 5 1 20% +7.00
Phillip Enright 5 0 0% −5.00
Pierce Gallagher 4 0 0% −4.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
8
Archived wins
£77,756
Prize money
2012
Best season · 5 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Caher Lass (IRE) — ladbrokes.com Handicap Chase (0-102) Killarney · May 2008
£7,601
Mileys Dream (IRE) — Speedy's Bars Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Listowel · Sep 2016
£7,380
Baresi (IRE) — Roscommon Herald Beginners Chase Roscommon · Aug 2012
£6,210
Notable horses
Baresi (IRE) Mileys Dream (IRE) Itsaboy (GB) Caher Lass (IRE) Vintage Supreme (IRE) Kilmurry Kid (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Milan (GB) 8.1% · 3–37
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,848 runs since 2008 (1,463 horses).
Papal Bull (GB) 3.6% · 1–28
Progeny have won 7.4% of 1,584 runs since 2008 (131 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 3.5% from 172. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 3.3% from 122.
Beneficial (GB) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 10.5% of 17,043 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Saddlers' Hall (IRE) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 7.7% of 4,861 runs since 2008 (460 horses).
Rock Of Gibraltar (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.8% of 11,563 runs since 2008 (871 horses).
Talkin Man (CAN) 12.5% · 1–8
Progeny have won 5.6% of 324 runs since 2008 (44 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 22 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 210 · newest first

The latest 50 of 210 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 6 April 2005 to 29 September 2017.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Sep 17 Gowran Park Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Kevin Brouder Bramblestown Handicap Hurdle (80-95)16f · Heavy · 19 ran 13th 28/1
23 Sep 17 Navan Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Mr L P Gilligan Sequence Events Handicap Hurdle (80-102)22f · Yielding · 22 ran 17th 16/1
10 Sep 17 Listowel Sabre Mist (IRE)J: Mr R A Foley Kerry Group Flat Race16f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 50/1
10 Sep 17 Listowel Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Low Low Irish Ebf Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20f · Heavy · 16 ran 15th 8/1
20 Aug 17 Tramore (IRE) Sabre Mist (IRE)J: Mr R A Foley Irish Stallion Farms EBF Mares Flat Race16f · Yielding · 11 ran 10th 100/1
17 Aug 17 Tramore Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Barry Browne O'neills Bar Handicap Hurdle (80-95)21f · Yielding · 15 ran 8th 25/1
22 Jul 17 Limerick Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Jody McGarvey Follow Limerick Racecourse On Twitter Handicap Hurdle (80-102)18f · Good · 18 ran 16th 20/1
14 Jul 17 Cork Sabre Mist (IRE)J: Kevin Brouder Family Fun Day August 7th Maiden Hurdle16f · Good · 24 ran 23rd 66/1
09 Jul 17 Limerick Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Rachael Blackmore Irish Stallion Farms EBF Handicap Hurdle (80-109) (Div 1)21f · Good · 17 ran 9th 16/1
26 Jun 17 Kilbeggan Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Greville Arms Hotel Mullingar Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)25f · Soft · 16 ran 12th 10/1
05 Jun 17 Listowel Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Harvest Festival 10th-16th September Handicap Hurdle (80-95) (Div 1)20f · Yielding · 18 ran 12th 11/1
05 Jun 17 Listowel Sabre Mist (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Kingdom Mares Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 17 ran 15th 100/1
21 May 17 Limerick Sabre Mist (IRE)J: Mr R A Foley Follow Limerick Racecourse On Twitter (Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Good · 7 ran 7th 66/1
12 May 17 Kilbeggan Sabre Mist (IRE)J: Mr R A Foley www.kilbegganraces.com (Pro/am) Flat Race16f · Yielding To Soft · 10 ran 6th 40/1
03 Nov 16 Thurles Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Ballagh Mares Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 11 ran 11th 11/1
30 Oct 16 Wexford (IRE) Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Cian Collins Casey Concrete Gorey Handicap Hurdle24f · Good · 14 ran 10th 8/1
16 Oct 16 Cork Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Paul Townend Christmas Party Package Handicap Hurdle (80-109)19f · Yielding · 17 ran 3rd 12/1
20 Sep 16 Ballinrobe Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Phillip Enright Brendan Mcnulty Memorial Handicap Hurdle (80-95)20f · Soft · 16 ran 12th 7/2J
17 Sep 16 Listowel Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Speedy's Bars Handicap Hurdle (80-102)20f · Yielding · 16 ran 1st 10/1
11 Sep 16 Listowel Mileys Dream (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Low Low E.B.F. Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-109)20f · Soft · 12 ran 3rd 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Long's strike rate?
John Long has won 7 of 161 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.3% (as at 22 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is John Long's Fair A/E?
0.93, from 161 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 22 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).