What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's strike rate?

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies has won 91 of 575 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.8% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies do best at?

Newton Abbot by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 runners (20.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies?

Sam Twiston-Davies, with 293 runners since 2008 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (17.7%).

Is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies in form?

In the last 14 days: 38 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 15.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 15.8% since 2008.

What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?

0.91, from 572 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies

575 runners in the lifetime window · 120 individual horses

As at 13 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 6.3% of 463 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.2–8.0% over 364 racing days). As at 13 Nov 2026.

Runners today 99% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

91–575

Wins / Runs

15.8%

Strike rate

n=575

201 (35%)

Placed

0.91

Fair A/E

n=572 · 0.79 incl. margin

−201.31

£1 level stake

n=574 at SP · −35.1%

£1.48m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

14.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 30 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 16% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.91). New recruits from other yards win at 23% first time out (80 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 575 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 13 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Sep–Nov Fresh horses: 21.6% 40% when favourite Sam Twiston-Davies: 17.7% from 293 New recruits: 22.5% Sends off the favourite in 20% of races

The read

It is weakest at Cheltenham (5.1% over 39 runners) — the widest gap in the record. New recruits from other stables on their first run win at 22.5% (n=80, Fair A/E 1.19), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.9% (n=34, Fair A/E 0.25). Sam Twiston-Davies rides 51% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (17.7%, A/E 0.88). The yard also reads well off a break of 180+ days (23.7%, n=97). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 3.6% over 56 runners, 12.2pts below the baseline. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase at Cheltenham (Jan 2026, £56,950). The stable star of the record: Intosomethinggood (GB) — 5 wins from 13 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Sep–Nov.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 15.8% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

21.6%+5.8

n=153 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −6.73

New recruits · first run for the yard

22.5%+6.7

n=80 · A/E 1.19 · £1 −3.69

Debutants · first career start

17.5%+1.7

n=40 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −7.52

First-time headgear · true-first definition

9.1%−6.7

n=22 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −8.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−15.8

n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00

When favourite

40%

n=115 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −16.93

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

15%−0.8

n=214 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −52.04

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

2.9%−12.9

n=34 · A/E 0.25 · £1 −32.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 15.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

In Class 1 3.6% vs 15.8% · n=56

On last-time-out winners 26.7% vs 15.8% · n=90

In Group / Graded races 2.9% vs 15.8% · n=34

At Cheltenham 5.1% vs 15.8% · n=39

With James Turner 6% vs 15.8% · n=50

Off a break of 180+ days 23.7% vs 15.8% · n=97

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 343 60 17.5% −131.17

Chase 172 25 14.5% −44.38

NH Flat 53 6 11.3% −18.76

Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 274 50 18.2% −82.41

Good to Soft 157 18 11.5% −80.43

Soft 84 15 17.9% −13.65

Good to Firm 35 4 11.4% −10.30

Heavy 18 4 22.2% −7.52

Standard (AW) 7 0 0% −7.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Worcester 40 8 20% −3.86

Cheltenham 39 2 5.1% −19.00

Ludlow 37 7 18.9% −2.11

Newton Abbot 34 7 20.6% −10.26

Stratford 34 5 14.7% −7.42

Chepstow 32 6 18.8% −13.72

Warwick 31 2 6.5% −25.14

Market Rasen 26 7 26.9% −12.34

Aintree 26 4 15.4% −1.50

Ascot 22 1 4.5% −16.50

Uttoxeter 22 6 27.3% −5.03

Hereford 19 1 5.3% −17.80

Newbury 17 1 5.9% −16.00

Doncaster 16 3 18.8% −0.75

Bangor-on-Dee 16 5 31.3% −5.37

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 229 42 18.3% −87.20

Class 3 107 20 18.7% −28.24

Class 5 107 17 15.9% −32.37

Class 2 72 10 13.9% −2.00

Class 1 56 2 3.6% −47.50

Class 6 4 0 0% −4.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 128 47 36.7% 0.96 −25.43

2nd–3rd fav 175 29 16.6% 0.88 −40.88

4th–6th fav 165 12 7.3% 0.90 −63.00

7th+ in betting 106 2 1.9% 0.56 −72.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

86.4% completed · 515 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 172 78.5% 8 4 24 1 0

Hurdle 343 90.4% 6 1 24 1 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Norman Fletcher (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 14 1 5 13 Nov 26

Intosomethinggood (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 13 5 8 13 Nov 26

Broadway Honey (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 13 4 5 11 Nov 26

Miss Denver (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 12 0 6 12 Nov 26

Josh The Boss (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 11 3 5 7 Nov 26

Lightning Flash (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 3 3 12 Nov 26

The Egyptian Ginge (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 3 5 7 Nov 26

Moveit Like Minnie (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 1 6 31 Oct 26

Chief Sunday (FR)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 0 0 15 Oct 26

Bagheera Ginge (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 10 3 5 15 Sep 26

Harbour Light (GB)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 4 5 7 Nov 26

Gowel Road (IRE)from Nigel Twiston-Davies 9 0 2 5 Nov 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 120 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 5 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 51 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Nigel Twiston-Davies (44) and Miss Amber Jackson-Fennell (2); 9 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard, most often for Dan Skelton (2); 57 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

6 from 38 15.8% · +0.0pts vs baseline

Last 14 days15.8%

Lifetime base15.8%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

71715610135629241713

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderSam Twiston-Davies

51% of all rides
17.7% SR · A/E 0.88

RiderRWSR£1

Sam Twiston-Davies 293 52 17.7% −109.32

Mr Toby McCain-Mitchell 80 14 17.5% +3.47

Amber Jackson-Fennell 50 4 8% −25.65

James Turner 50 3 6% −35.25

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.48m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 49 wins

Matata (IRE) — Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (GBB Race) Cheltenham · Jan 2026 · Class 1

£56,950

Potters Charm (IRE) — Weatherbys Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide Hurdle (GBB Race) Windsor · Jan 2026 · Class 2

£52,030

Potters Charm (IRE) — Star Sports National Spirit Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Fontwell · Feb 2026 · Grade 2

£45,560

Notable horses

Intosomethinggood (GB) Broadway Honey (IRE) Harbour Light (GB) Un Sens A La Vie (FR) Josh The Boss (GB) Bagheera Ginge (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Vadamos (FR) 15.2% · 5–33

Progeny have won 9.6% of 2,125 runs since 2020 (227 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 5.6% from 160.

Mount Nelson (GB) 16.7% · 5–30

Progeny have won 10% of 6,290 runs since 2012 (538 horses).

Pether's Moon (IRE) 16.7% · 5–30

Progeny have won 13.1% of 919 runs since 2020 (107 horses).

Dragon Dancer (GB) 27.8% · 5–18

Progeny have won 8.9% of 582 runs since 2013 (81 horses). Strongest on Good going: 12.2% from 164.

Jack Hobbs (GB) 5.6% · 1–18

Progeny have won 10.2% of 1,100 runs since 2021 (205 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 17.7% from 124.

Califet (FR) 17.6% · 3–17

Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,814 runs since 2008 (399 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 13 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 575 · newest first

The latest 50 of 575 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 May 2025 to 13 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Ferocimo (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle Race(grade 2) (Registered As The Hyde) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 8 ran 3rd 100/30F

13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Intosomethinggood (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Novices' Steeple Chase (Listed Race) (Registered As The Doctor Fothergill Novices' Steeple Chase) (GBB Race)Class 1 · 25f · Good · 5 ran 2nd 100/30

13 Nov 26 Cheltenham Norman Fletcher (GB)J: Jamie Brace AIS Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle Race (Challenger Stayers' Hurdle Series Qualifier)Class 3 · 21f · Good · 18 ran 1st 12/1

12 Nov 26 Market Rasen Bits Ballou (GB)J: James Turner PricedUp Boosts And BOG Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 23f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 7th 14/1

12 Nov 26 Market Rasen C'Est Pour Moi (FR)J: Amber Jackson-Fennell NFU Mutual Agriculture Raceday Novices' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 9/1

12 Nov 26 Market Rasen Miss Denver (GB)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Lincolnshire Rural Support Network Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 21.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 2nd 3/1

12 Nov 26 Hereford Lightning Flash (IRE)J: Mr Eddie Edge CopyBet For Nations League Profit Boosts Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 21.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 6/1

12 Nov 26 Market Rasen Ivor Bear (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies PricedUp Now With Best Odds 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 4th 6/4

11 Nov 26 Warwick Broadway Honey (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Newton LDP Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 24f · Good · 4 ran 3rd 15/8F

11 Nov 26 Warwick Orchard County (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies FCN Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 21f · Good · 3 ran 2nd 10/1

10 Nov 26 Lingfield Port Glen One (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Sharon Knapp Memorial Cup EBF 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 3 · 19.5f · Good · 5 ran F 30/100F

09 Nov 26 Stratford Locker Boum (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Trailertrek Towbars Novices' Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 15/8

09 Nov 26 Stratford Lord Of Cheshire (FR)J: Sam Twiston-Davies Jumps Look Better On Racing TV Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 3 · 22.5f · Good To Soft · 8 ran PU 9/1

08 Nov 26 Sandown Amatchmadeinheaven (GB)J: Amber Jackson-Fennell Oddschecker Bet Builder Novices' Handicap Hurdle Race (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good To Soft · 8 ran 2nd 8/1

07 Nov 26 Aintree Will Adam (IRE)J: Sam Twiston-Davies William Hill Extra Places Every Day "Junior" National Hunt Flat Race (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 17f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 3rd 17/2

07 Nov 26 Kelso Moon Over America (IRE)J: Jamie Brace luckytiger.co.uk Best Odds Guaranteed The Night Before Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 3 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 2nd 5/2J

07 Nov 26 Aintree Josh The Boss (GB)J: Mr Jamie Neild Play Lucky Stable With William Hill Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 2 · 20f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 1st 13/2

07 Nov 26 Aintree The Egyptian Ginge (IRE)J: Mr Jamie Neild Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Race (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 24.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 4th 9/2

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Harbour Light (GB)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Bet £20 Get £40 In Free Bets At matchbook.com Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 4 · 23.5f · Good · 9 ran 1st 6/4F

07 Nov 26 Uttoxeter Shabalko D'herm (FR)J: Toby McCain-Mitchell Follow Matchbook On X Novices' Handicap Steeple Chase (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 7 ran 2nd 9/2

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 8 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 14 runs (won 3) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 12 runs (won 3) · fastest on KTB Speed in 12 runs (won 2) · to 12 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's strike rate?: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies has won 91 of 575 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 15.8% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies do best at?: Newton Abbot by strike rate: 7 wins from 34 runners (20.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies?: Sam Twiston-Davies, with 293 runners since 2008 — 51% of the total. That pairing has won 52 (17.7%).
Is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies in form?: In the last 14 days: 38 runners, 6 winners, a strike rate of 15.8%. That is in line with the baseline of 15.8% since 2008.
What is Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies's Fair A/E?: 0.91, from 572 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.