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Trainer profile

Patrick Downey

105 runners in the last 5 seasons · 17 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 25 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2022
7–105
Wins / Runs
6.7%
Strike rate
n=105
17 (16%)
Placed
1.55
Fair A/E
n=105 · 1.21 incl. margin
−59.12
£1 level stake
n=105 at SP · −56.3%
£68,995
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across five seasons (Fair A/E 1.55). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 11% off breaks of two months or more (38 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 105 archived runs (last 5 seasons) · updated 20 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 10.5%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a positive signal at 10.5% (n=38, Fair A/E 3.10), but runners with a claiming rider up have been a poor signal at 2.9% (n=68, Fair A/E 0.83). The yard also reads well over 2m1f – 2m4f (13.9%, n=36) and on Good going (9.7%, n=31). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 36 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Three Bells (IRE) — 8 wins from 47 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.5%+3.8
n=38 · A/E 3.10 · £1 −6.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.7
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.7
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.7
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.7
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.9%−3.8
n=68 · A/E 0.83 · £1 −53.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.7
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 13.9% vs 6.7% · n=36
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 6.7% · n=36
With claiming riders up 2.9% vs 6.7% · n=68
On Soft going 2.7% vs 6.7% · n=37
In Flat races 3.3% vs 6.7% · n=30
On Good going 9.7% vs 6.7% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 73 6 8.2% −33.12
Flat 30 1 3.3% −24.00
Chase 1 0 0% −1.00
NH Flat 1 0 0% −1.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 37 1 2.7% −28.50
Good 31 3 9.7% −7.50
Good to Soft 16 2 12.5% −8.12
Heavy 11 0 0% −11.00
Standard (AW) 10 1 10% −4.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Navan 12 0 0% −12.00
Fairyhouse 12 0 0% −12.00
Dundalk (AW) 10 1 10% −4.00
Naas 7 0 0% −7.00
Cork 7 1 14.3% −4.12
Bellewstown 6 2 33.3% +9.00
Listowel 6 1 16.7% −1.00
Killarney 6 1 16.7% +2.50
Punchestown 5 1 20% +3.50
Limerick 5 0 0% −5.00
Thurles 4 0 0% −4.00
Down Royal 4 0 0% −4.00
Leopardstown 3 0 0% −3.00
Gowran Park 3 0 0% −3.00
Roscommon 2 0 0% −2.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 4 0 0% 0.00 −4.00
2nd–3rd fav 7 3 42.9% 2.73 +6.88
4th–6th fav 18 4 22.2% 2.65 +14.00
7th+ in betting 76 0 0% 0.00 −76.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
81.1% completed · 74 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 1 0% 0 0 1 0 0
Hurdle 73 82.2% 4 1 8 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Penny Jar (IRE) 25 3 7 16 Jul 26
Letters To Juliet (IRE) 15 1 2 19 Sep 26
Breakintheclouds (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan 10 0 0 12 Oct 24
Glengarriff (IRE)from W P Browne 7 0 1 25 Sep 26
Company Keeping (IRE)from John C McConnell 7 1 3 18 Nov 22
Can't Catch Molly (IRE) 6 0 0 2 Jul 26
Little Big Rocky (IRE) 6 2 3 23 Sep 22
The Son Of Brega (IRE) 5 0 0 18 Feb 26
Colin's Friend (IRE)then Henry De Bromhead 4 0 0 3 Feb 26
Mumma Mac (GB)from Hughie Morrison 4 0 0 30 May 24
Castlerock Lady (IRE) 3 0 0 21 Mar 26
Naughty Aimee (IRE) 3 0 0 17 May 25
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 17 horses listed, 7 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John C McConnell (2); 10 had their first archived run for this yard.

3 have since run for another yard; 14 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
0001700171380130
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderPatrick M O'Brien
31% of all rides
6.1% SR · A/E 1.03
RiderRWSR£1
Patrick M O'Brien 33 2 6.1% −18.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
23
Archived wins
£187k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 6 wins
The King Of Brega (IRE) — Allianz Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Down Royal · Nov 2013
£9,315
Letters To Juliet (IRE) — Boardsmill Stud Mares Handicap Hurdle Bellewstown · Apr 2025
£8,555
Little Big Rocky (IRE) — Fermoy Handicap Hurdle Cork · Aug 2022
£8,555
Notable horses
Three Bells (IRE) Penny Jar (IRE) The King Of Brega (IRE) Larkin (IRE) Little Big Rocky (IRE) Letters To Juliet (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Court Cave (IRE) 12% · 3–25
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,928 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Califet (FR) 14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,787 runs since 2008 (399 horses).
Excelebration (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9% of 3,605 runs since 2008 (244 horses).
Profitable (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 9.5% of 4,408 runs since 2008 (356 horses).
Tagula (IRE) 14.3% · 1–7
Progeny have won 9.1% of 5,557 runs since 2008 (382 horses). Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 6.1% from 909.
Mount Nelson (GB) 0% · 0–6
Progeny have won 9.9% of 6,257 runs since 2008 (538 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 364 · newest first

The latest 50 of 364 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 January 2011 to 25 September 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Glengarriff (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 8th 50/1
19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Letters To Juliet (IRE)J: Josh Williamson SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 13th 50/1
04 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Glengarriff (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley WTW Willis Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 300/1
16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Penny Jar (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20.5f · Good · 15 ran PU 14/1
10 Jul 26 Cork My Poetic Queen (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle DNG John Ryan Auctioneer Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 20 ran 14th 300/1
06 Jul 26 Roscommon Glengarriff (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Shanagher Hearing Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16f · Good · 15 ran 12th 300/1
02 Jul 26 Limerick Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Munster Suite At Limerick Races Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 20/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown Glengarriff (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 24 ran 18th 200/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown My Poetic Queen (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 17th 66/1
05 Jun 26 Clonmel Penny Jar (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Bulmers Zero Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Good · 16 ran 10th 50/1
18 Apr 26 Bellewstown Penny Jar (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Tony Marmion Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 18/1
16 Apr 26 Limerick Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 6th 14/1
21 Mar 26 Navan Castlerock Lady (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Mongey Communications Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 23 ran 22nd 250/1
04 Mar 26 Naas Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft To Heavy · 17 ran 10th 40/1
18 Feb 26 Punchestown The Son Of Brega (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Soft · 16 ran PU 11/1
03 Feb 26 Fairyhouse Colin's Friend (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien BetVictor Still Best Odds Guaranteed Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 15 ran 10th 100/1
14 Jan 26 Fairyhouse Castlerock Lady (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Download The Tote App Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Yielding · 12 ran 12th 200/1
09 Jan 26 Naas Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 25 ran 18th 300/1
31 Dec 25 Punchestown Penny Jar (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16.5f · Yielding · 18 ran 17th 20/1
26 Dec 25 Down Royal Letters To Juliet (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 20 ran 15th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Downey's strike rate?
Patrick Downey has won 7 of 105 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Patrick Downey's Fair A/E?
1.55, from 105 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).