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Trainer profile

Patrick Downey

365 runners in the lifetime window · 57 individual horses
As at 23 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
23–365
Wins / Runs
6.3%
Strike rate
n=365
52 (14%)
Placed
1.43
Fair A/E
n=365 · 1.11 incl. margin
−206.87
£1 level stake
n=365 at SP · −56.7%
£187k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.43).

Deterministic profile computed from 365 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 23 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Robbie Colgan: 8.3% from 60
The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=39, Fair A/E 0.00). The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.79 and −122.00 to a £1 stake over 156 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Robbie Colgan rides 16% of the entries and edges the yard's average (8.3% vs 6.3%, A/E 1.67) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (17.9%, n=39) and over 6f – 7f (13.1%, n=61). The record reads poorly on Heavy going — 0% over 42 runners, 6.3pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 1m5f – 2m: Fair A/E 0.77 across 110 runners (1.8% strike, −97.25 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Three Bells (IRE) — 8 wins from 47 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6.3% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
5.6%−0.7
n=125 · A/E 1.85 · £1 −60.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.3
n=18 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −18.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.3
n=39 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −39.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
8%+1.7
n=25 · A/E 3.05 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.3
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
When favourite
28.6%
n=14 · A/E 1.47 · £1 −0.75
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.6%−3.7
n=156 · A/E 0.79 · £1 −122.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−6.3
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m 17.9% vs 6.3% · n=39
Over 6f – 7f 13.1% vs 6.3% · n=61
With a new jockey booking 1.5% vs 6.3% · n=201
On Heavy going 0% vs 6.3% · n=42
With debutants 0% vs 6.3% · n=39
Over 1m5f – 2m 1.8% vs 6.3% · n=110
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 202 12 5.9% −109.12
Flat 140 9 6.4% −87.50
Chase 15 1 6.7% −12.25
NH Flat 8 1 12.5% +2.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 119 11 9.2% −46.25
Soft 101 3 3% −73.50
Standard (AW) 46 1 2.2% −40.00
Heavy 42 0 0% −42.00
Good to Soft 38 3 7.9% −24.62
Good to Firm 19 5 26.3% +19.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Navan 57 1 1.8% −50.00
Dundalk (AW) 45 1 2.2% −39.00
Fairyhouse 38 3 7.9% −24.25
Down Royal 28 3 10.7% −5.50
Naas 17 1 5.9% −9.50
Bellewstown 15 3 20% +4.50
Punchestown 14 1 7.1% −5.50
Cork 13 1 7.7% −10.12
Gowran Park 13 0 0% −13.00
Thurles 12 2 16.7% +8.00
Limerick 12 0 0% −12.00
Curragh 11 0 0% −11.00
Kilbeggan 10 2 20% +9.00
Tipperary 10 0 0% −10.00
Listowel 10 1 10% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 3 0 0% −3.00
Class 6 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 22 6 27.3% 1.53 +2.75
2nd–3rd fav 25 7 28% 2.20 +15.38
4th–6th fav 52 10 19.2% 2.73 +41.00
7th+ in betting 266 0 0% 0.00 −266.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Three Bells (IRE) 47 8 16 22 Jul 16
Penny Jar (IRE) 35 3 7 16 Jul 26
Letters To Juliet (IRE) 15 1 2 19 Sep 26
The King Of Brega (IRE)then Henry De Bromhead 14 3 4 5 Jul 15
Larkin (IRE) 14 2 4 27 Sep 14
Dolly Rose (IRE)from Tracey Collins 13 0 0 25 Jul 19
Brega Queen (IRE) 13 1 2 11 Aug 12
Breakintheclouds (IRE)from Denis Gerard Hogan 10 0 0 12 Oct 24
Little Big Rocky (IRE) 9 2 4 23 Sep 22
Dream Crusher (IRE) 9 1 2 28 Aug 15
Mind The Pin (IRE) 9 0 0 11 Oct 14
Tipolino (GER)from H Rogers 9 0 0 19 Apr 13
All 57 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 57 horses listed, 18 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John C McConnell (3) and Denis Gerard Hogan (2); 39 had their first archived run for this yard.

11 have since run for another yard, most often for Henry De Bromhead (2) and Noel Meade (2); 46 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 1
Only 1 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
0001054131755110
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRobbie Colgan
16% of all rides
8.3% SR · A/E 1.67
RiderRWSR£1
Robbie Colgan 60 5 8.3% −18.75
Patrick M O'Brien 33 2 6.1% −18.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→
23
Archived wins
£187k
Prize money
2022
Best season · 6 wins
The King Of Brega (IRE) — Allianz Handicap Hurdle (80-102) Down Royal · Nov 2013
£9,315
Letters To Juliet (IRE) — Boardsmill Stud Mares Handicap Hurdle Bellewstown · Apr 2025
£8,555
Little Big Rocky (IRE) — Fermoy Handicap Hurdle Cork · Aug 2022
£8,555
Notable horses
Three Bells (IRE) Penny Jar (IRE) The King Of Brega (IRE) Larkin (IRE) Little Big Rocky (IRE) Letters To Juliet (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Court Cave (IRE) 9.1% · 8–88
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,930 runs since 2008 (551 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 934.
Moss Vale (IRE) 15.7% · 8–51
Progeny have won 8.3% of 2,012 runs since 2008 (145 horses).
Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–26
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,743 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Califet (FR) 12% · 3–25
Progeny have won 11.8% of 3,788 runs since 2008 (399 horses).
Insan (USA) 14.3% · 2–14
Progeny have won 11.3% of 362 runs since 2008 (45 horses). Strongest on Good going: 14.3% from 126.
Duke Of Marmalade (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,539 runs since 2008 (307 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 23 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 365 · newest first

The latest 50 of 365 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 25 January 2011 to 22 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Glengarriff (IRE)J: Mr Finian Maguire Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 9th 33/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Glengarriff (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley Trant Goodwill Stakes Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 8th 50/1
19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Letters To Juliet (IRE)J: Josh Williamson SIS, Supporting Irish Racing Handicap Hurdle16f · Good · 13 ran 13th 50/1
04 Sep 26 Kilbeggan (IRE) Glengarriff (IRE)J: Kieren Buckley WTW Willis Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 3rd 300/1
16 Jul 26 Killarney (IRE) Penny Jar (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20.5f · Good · 15 ran PU 14/1
10 Jul 26 Cork My Poetic Queen (IRE)J: Ricky Doyle DNG John Ryan Auctioneer Maiden Hurdle17f · Good · 20 ran 14th 300/1
06 Jul 26 Roscommon Glengarriff (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Shanagher Hearing Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16f · Good · 15 ran 12th 300/1
02 Jul 26 Limerick Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Munster Suite At Limerick Races Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)22.5f · Good · 18 ran PU 20/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown Glengarriff (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 24 ran 18th 200/1
06 Jun 26 Punchestown My Poetic Queen (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Ladbrokes 'Big Daily Boosts On Racing' Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 22 ran 17th 66/1
05 Jun 26 Clonmel Penny Jar (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Bulmers Zero Handicap Hurdle19.5f · Good · 16 ran 10th 50/1
18 Apr 26 Bellewstown Penny Jar (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Tony Marmion Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Yielding · 16 ran PU 18/1
16 Apr 26 Limerick Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Professor Maria Hinfelaar Handicap Hurdle (0-100) (Div 1)19.5f · Soft To Heavy · 13 ran 6th 14/1
21 Mar 26 Navan Castlerock Lady (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Mongey Communications Maiden Hurdle16f · Soft · 23 ran 22nd 250/1
04 Mar 26 Naas Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Mares Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16f · Soft To Heavy · 17 ran 10th 40/1
18 Feb 26 Punchestown The Son Of Brega (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap Hurdle (0-100)20f · Soft · 16 ran PU 11/1
03 Feb 26 Fairyhouse Colin's Friend (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien BetVictor Still Best Odds Guaranteed Maiden Hurdle16f · Heavy · 15 ran 10th 100/1
14 Jan 26 Fairyhouse Castlerock Lady (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Download The Tote App Mares Maiden Hurdle18f · Yielding · 12 ran 12th 200/1
09 Jan 26 Naas Can't Catch Molly (IRE)J: Patrick M O'Brien Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 25 ran 18th 300/1
31 Dec 25 Punchestown Penny Jar (IRE)J: Alix Balfe Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16.5f · Yielding · 18 ran 17th 20/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick Downey's strike rate?
Patrick Downey has won 23 of 365 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.3% (as at 23 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick Downey do best at?
Fairyhouse by strike rate: 3 wins from 38 runners (7.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Patrick Downey?
Robbie Colgan, with 60 runners since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (8.3%).
Is Patrick Downey in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 1 runner, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Patrick Downey's Fair A/E?
1.43, from 365 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 23 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).