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Trainer profile

Paul Cowley

206 runners in the lifetime window · 34 individual horses
As at 29 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner Jun 2018 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.
9–206
Wins / Runs
4.4%
Strike rate
n=206
45 (22%)
Placed
0.62
Fair A/E
n=206 · 0.54 incl. margin
−80.50
£1 level stake
n=206 at SP · −39.1%
£56,438
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.62). With a claiming rider up the record reads 7% (69 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 206 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 7.2%
The read

The record is strongest at Towcester (8.1%, n=37), clear of the yard's 4.4% baseline. The yard also read well on Soft going (9.1%, n=55) and over 2m5f – 3m (7.7%, n=65). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 34 runners, 4.4pts below the baseline.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.9%−2.5
n=54 · A/E 0.32 · £1 −50.75
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.4
n=13 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=17 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −17.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
6.7%+2.3
n=15 · A/E 0.68 · £1 −12.75
When favourite
28.6%
n=7 · A/E 1.04 · £1 −1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.2%+2.8
n=69 · A/E 1.12 · £1 +24.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
On Soft going 9.1% vs 4.4% · n=55
Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 4.4% · n=34
On Good to Firm going 0% vs 4.4% · n=30
Over 2m5f – 3m 7.7% vs 4.4% · n=65
At Towcester 8.1% vs 4.4% · n=37
With claiming riders up 7.2% vs 4.4% · n=69
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 109 4 3.7% −57.00
Chase 77 5 6.5% −3.50
NH Flat 20 0 0% −20.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 60 3 5% +0.00
Soft 55 5 9.1% −2.50
Good to Soft 38 1 2.6% −25.00
Good to Firm 30 0 0% −30.00
Heavy 23 0 0% −23.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Towcester 37 3 8.1% −6.75
Warwick 21 2 9.5% +14.00
Uttoxeter 18 0 0% −18.00
Southwell 14 0 0% −14.00
Worcester 13 1 7.7% +28.00
Stratford 11 1 9.1% −7.00
Leicester 10 1 10% −7.75
Huntingdon 10 0 0% −10.00
Fakenham 10 0 0% −10.00
Fontwell 8 1 12.5% +5.00
Chepstow 8 0 0% −8.00
Hereford 6 0 0% −6.00
Doncaster 6 0 0% −6.00
Market Rasen 5 0 0% −5.00
Kempton 5 0 0% −5.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 4 94 3 3.2% −46.00
Class 5 87 6 6.9% −9.50
Class 6 16 0 0% −16.00
Class 3 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 10 2 20% 0.80 −4.50
2nd–3rd fav 31 2 6.5% 0.43 −18.00
4th–6th fav 59 1 1.7% 0.23 −47.00
7th+ in betting 106 4 3.8% 1.36 −11.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
75.8% completed · 186 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 77 76.6% 0 2 14 0 2
Hurdle 109 75.2% 4 0 23 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Grand Article (IRE)from P J Prendergast 31 2 11 24 May 15
Seas Of Green (GB) 25 4 8 20 Apr 17
Billy Murphy (GB) 20 0 8 26 Mar 12
Glendermot (IRE) 16 1 5 15 Apr 17
Bill The Lad (IRE) 10 1 3 6 Nov 14
Kingfisher Niamh (GB) 10 1 1 21 Jul 10
Jolly Cooper (GB)then Mike Murphy 9 0 0 18 Dec 09
Busy Baro (IRE) 7 0 0 22 Jan 18
Harris Garden (IRE)from Paul Webber 7 0 4 17 Jun 14
Stockton Flyer (GB)from Martin Keighley 7 0 2 4 Apr 10
Frontline (IRE)from Peter Fahey 6 0 0 2 Jun 18
Next Level (IRE)then Jamie Snowden 6 0 1 14 Nov 17
All 34 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 34 horses listed, 14 arrived from another yard in our archive; 20 had their first archived run for this yard.

6 have since run for another yard; 28 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
04440600014412
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderAdam Wedge
18% of all rides
2.7% SR · A/E 0.32
RiderRWSR£1
Adam Wedge 37 1 2.7% −22.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2006→
9
Archived wins
£60,714
Prize money
2014
Best season · 4 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Glendermot (IRE) — South Notts Hussars Handicap Chase Leicester · Mar 2017 · Class 5
£3,899
Seas Of Green (GB) — Totepool Racecourse Debit Card Betting Handicap Hurdle Fontwell · Feb 2017 · Class 4
£3,899
Kingfisher Niamh (GB) — Bet Austria V Croatia - Betdaq Handicap Chase Worcester · Jun 2008 · Class 5
£3,253
Notable horses
Seas Of Green (GB) Grand Article (IRE) Glendermot (IRE) Kingfisher Niamh (GB) Bill The Lad (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Definite Article (GB) 6.1% · 2–33
Progeny have won 10.5% of 5,617 runs since 2008 (527 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.1% from 138. Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 4.3% from 211.
Karinga Bay (GB) 13.8% · 4–29
Progeny have won 10.1% of 3,407 runs since 2008 (315 horses).
Silver Patriarch (IRE) 0% · 0–29
Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,609 runs since 2008 (262 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.3% from 274. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 11.3% from 300.
Portrait Gallery (IRE) 6.3% · 1–16
Progeny have won 11% of 1,448 runs since 2008 (124 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.3% from 223.
Classic Cliche (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 8% of 2,328 runs since 2008 (231 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 11.1% from 244.
Cloudings (IRE) 10% · 1–10
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,885 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 410. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 233 · newest first

The latest 50 of 233 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 1 December 2006 to 2 June 2018.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
02 Jun 18 Worcester Frontline (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield laclothing.co.uk Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 33/1
14 May 18 Kempton Gortnagirl (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Better Odds With Matchbook Mares' Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good · 7 ran 4th 12/1
27 Apr 18 Chepstow Sanok (POL)J: Nick Scholfield Sun Trade Windows Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran F 14/1
26 Apr 18 Warwick Gortnagirl (IRE)J: Jamie Moore 188Bet Noel Fehily Punchestown Blog Maiden HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Good To Soft · 18 ran 6th 100/1
09 Apr 18 Kempton Sanok (POL)J: Ciaran Gethings Matchbook Betting Exchange Novices' Hurdle (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 11 ran 4th 50/1
26 Mar 18 Huntingdon Gortnagirl (IRE)J: Jamie Moore Enhanced Place Odds At 188Bet Mares' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 20.5f · Good To Soft · 16 ran 14th 50/1
05 Feb 18 Southwell Frontline (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Free Betting Offers At freebetting.co.uk Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 15.5f · Soft · 7 ran PU 25/1
22 Jan 18 Fakenham Sanok (POL)J: Nick Scholfield Racing Partnership Maiden HurdleClass 3 · 16f · Heavy · 7 ran 6th 100/1
22 Jan 18 Fakenham Busy Baro (IRE)J: Nick Scholfield Taverham Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 10 ran 7th 20/1
11 Jan 18 Leicester Sanok (POL)J: Ciaran Gethings Roa/racing Post Owners' Jackpot Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 15.5f · Heavy · 12 ran PU 100/1
05 Dec 17 Southwell Busy Baro (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Shawthing Racing Partnership Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 11 ran PU 20/1
14 Nov 17 Huntingdon Next Level (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Cheltenham Betting At 188Bet Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 20.5f · Good · 15 ran 10th 25/1
14 Nov 17 Huntingdon Nicolosio (IRE)J: Tom O'Brien Read Noel Fehily At 188Bet Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 7th 150/1
13 Nov 17 Kempton Frontline (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings BetVictor Chase (Novices' Limited Handicap)Class 4 · 18f · Good · 11 ran 9th 66/1
06 May 17 Uttoxeter Next Level (IRE)J: Ciaran Gethings Sentinel May Un Mar Lady Novices' Handicap Hurdle (Div 1)Class 5 · 23.5f · Good · 13 ran 2nd 40/1
20 Apr 17 Cheltenham Seas Of Green (GB)J: Ciaran Gethings Kingston Stud Supporting The Ijf Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 24f · Good · 11 ran 8th 50/1
15 Apr 17 Stratford Glendermot (IRE)J: Nico de Boinville Rio Gold Syndicate Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 22.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 6/1
30 Mar 17 Warwick Glendermot (IRE)J: Danny Cook Download The App At 188Bet Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good To Soft · 4 ran 4th 3/1
12 Mar 17 Warwick Seas Of Green (GB)J: Richard Johnson Warwickshire & Northamptonshire Air Ambulance Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 21f · Soft · 7 ran 3rd 11/2
10 Mar 17 Leicester Glendermot (IRE)J: Danny Cook South Notts Hussars Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 22.5f · Soft · 5 ran 1st 5/4F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Cowley's strike rate?
Paul Cowley has won 9 of 206 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Cowley do best at?
Towcester by strike rate: 3 wins from 37 runners (8.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Paul Cowley's Fair A/E?
0.62, from 206 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 29 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).