What is John Ferguson's strike rate?

John Ferguson has won 224 of 899 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 24.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does John Ferguson do best at?

Stratford by strike rate: 19 wins from 48 runners (39.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for John Ferguson?

Denis O'Regan, with 256 runners since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 57 (22.3%).

What is John Ferguson's Fair A/E?

1.09, from 896 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

John Ferguson

899 runners in the lifetime window · 174 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2016 100% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2010→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

224–899

Wins / Runs

24.9%

Strike rate

n=899

444 (49%)

Placed

1.09

Fair A/E

n=896 · 0.94 incl. margin

−141.05

£1 level stake

n=899 at SP · −15.7%

£1.85m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

3.3%

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 130 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 25% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.09). Debutants are a strength: 33% on first career starts (45 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 899 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Jul–Oct 46% when favourite Denis O'Regan: 22.3% from 256 New recruits: 29.5% Sent off the favourite in 33% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Stratford (39.6%, n=48), clear of the yard's 24.9% baseline. It is weakest at Aintree (4.4% over 45 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Debutants strike at 33.3% (n=45, Fair A/E 1.45), but in Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 10.7% (n=121, Fair A/E 0.92). Denis O'Regan rode 28% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (22.3% vs 24.9%, A/E 1.07) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The record read poorly in Class 1 — 9.8% over 153 runners, 15.1pts below the baseline. 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the StanJames.com Elite Hurdle at Wincanton (Nov 2014, £34,170). The stable star of the record was Ittirad (USA) — 8 wins from 19 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fired Jul–Oct.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 24.9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

19.7%−5.2

n=310 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −76.41

New recruits · first run for the yard

29.5%+4.6

n=129 · A/E 1.16 · £1 −0.04

Debutants · first career start

33.3%+8.4

n=45 · A/E 1.45 · £1 +0.01

First-time headgear · true-first definition

17.3%−7.6

n=52 · A/E 0.90 · £1 −7.81

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

21.2%−3.7

n=33 · A/E 1.30 · £1 −5.51

When favourite

46%

n=298 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −12.95

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

23.6%−1.3

n=216 · A/E 1.24 · £1 −1.86

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

10.7%−14.2

n=121 · A/E 0.92 · £1 −45.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 24.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Aintree 4.4% vs 24.9% · n=45

At Cheltenham 7.5% vs 24.9% · n=80

In Class 1 9.8% vs 24.9% · n=153

In Group / Graded races 10.7% vs 24.9% · n=121

At Stratford 39.6% vs 24.9% · n=48

Over 2m5f – 3m 14.1% vs 24.9% · n=85

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 686 174 25.4% −90.72

Chase 114 17 14.9% −56.59

NH Flat 99 33 33.3% +6.26

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 376 103 27.4% −55.74

Good to Soft 232 55 23.7% −25.95

Soft 194 39 20.1% −60.45

Good to Firm 68 23 33.8% +15.43

Heavy 28 4 14.3% −13.34

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Cheltenham 80 6 7.5% −46.48

Huntingdon 64 23 35.9% +24.05

Market Rasen 58 17 29.3% +4.66

Stratford 48 19 39.6% +4.89

Aintree 45 2 4.4% −36.75

Worcester 43 16 37.2% −8.19

Doncaster 40 11 27.5% +1.73

Musselburgh 38 11 28.9% +0.79

Newton Abbot 37 14 37.8% +10.17

Fakenham 35 9 25.7% +1.62

Kempton 30 5 16.7% −17.50

Southwell 27 8 29.6% +0.66

Ludlow 26 4 15.4% −12.43

Wetherby 26 6 23.1% −12.40

Fontwell 23 6 26.1% −9.49

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 361 113 31.3% −30.87

Class 1 153 15 9.8% −66.17

Class 3 143 27 18.9% −41.04

Class 5 90 28 31.1% −1.83

Class 2 80 15 18.8% −17.16

Class 6 72 26 36.1% +16.02

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 336 148 44% 1.14 −2.62

2nd–3rd fav 299 61 20.4% 1.04 −20.93

4th–6th fav 169 11 6.5% 0.77 −80.50

7th+ in betting 95 4 4.2% 1.08 −37.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

91.9% completed · 800 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 114 79.8% 7 2 12 1 1

Hurdle 686 93.9% 7 9 21 1 4

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Ittirad (USA)from Roger Varian 19 8 15 7 Feb 16

Ruacana (GB)from Michael Bell · then Tim Vaughan 18 3 5 9 Apr 16

Three Kingdoms (IRE)from D K Weld · then D K Weld 18 6 10 16 Mar 16

Cayman Islands (GB)from A Fabre 18 2 4 20 Dec 15

Sea Lord (IRE)from Mark Johnston 18 7 11 21 Nov 15

Purple Bay (IRE) 16 5 10 28 Nov 15

Aalim (GB)from Saeed bin Suroor 16 5 11 5 Jul 15

New Year's Eve (GB) 16 5 10 17 Jan 15

Monarch's Way (GB)from A Fabre 16 3 6 18 Jun 13

Aqalim (GB)then Tim Vaughan 15 5 10 9 Apr 16

Father Edward (IRE)then David Pipe 15 3 9 11 Dec 15

Pine Creek (GB)from A Fabre 14 3 5 11 Feb 16

The 60 most-raced of 174 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 44 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Johnston (11) and Charlie Appleby (5); 16 had their first archived run for this yard.

24 have since run for another yard, most often for Charlie Appleby (6) and David Pipe (2); 36 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

31257103024403336291923

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderDenis O'Regan

28% of all rides
22.3% SR · A/E 1.07

RiderRWSR£1

Denis O'Regan 256 57 22.3% −50.72

Aidan Coleman 184 60 32.6% −26.79

Jack Quinlan 162 40 24.7% +0.23

A P McCoy 88 26 29.5% −24.57

Sam Twiston-Davies 33 9 27.3% −8.95

Mr Alex Ferguson 31 4 12.9% −18.40

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2010→

224

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£1.85m

Prize money

2015

Best season · 84 wins

Purple Bay (IRE) — StanJames.com Elite Hurdle (Grade 2 Limited Handicap) Wincanton · Nov 2014 · Grade 2

£34,170

Nabucco (GB) — William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Ascot · Oct 2015 · Listed

£34,170

Pine Creek (GB) — William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Listed) Ascot · Nov 2013 · Listed

£28,135

Notable horses

Ittirad (USA) Sea Lord (IRE) Three Kingdoms (IRE) Dubai Prince (IRE) New Year's Eve (GB) Aalim (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Cape Cross (IRE) 29.9% · 32–107

Progeny have won 13.3% of 12,754 runs since 2008 (988 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 8.4% from 477. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 7.8% from 230.

Dubawi (IRE) 26.9% · 18–67

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,918 runs since 2008 (1,517 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Street Cry (IRE) 17.5% · 10–57

Progeny have won 12.7% of 4,258 runs since 2008 (373 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 15.8% from 1,577. Weakest on Heavy going: 6.9% from 131.

Authorized (IRE) 30.2% · 13–43

Progeny have won 13.5% of 7,019 runs since 2008 (543 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 9.3% from 1,043. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 19.8% from 126. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.4% from 267.

Monsun (GER) 34.1% · 14–41

Progeny have won 15.8% of 2,243 runs since 2008 (250 horses). Strongest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 19.6% from 276. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 9.3% from 150.

Shirocco (GER) 8.6% · 3–35

Progeny have won 11.2% of 9,154 runs since 2008 (920 horses). Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 7.4% from 203.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 899 · newest first

The latest 50 of 899 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 5 May 2010 to 9 April 2016.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

09 Apr 16 Aintree Nabucco (GB)J: Mr Alex Ferguson Pinsent Masons Handicap Hurdle (Conditional Jockeys And Amateur Riders)Class 2 · 16.5f · Soft · 17 ran 9th 20/1

09 Apr 16 Aintree Aqalim (GB)J: Aidan Coleman Liverpool Stayers' Hurdle (Grade 1)Class 1 · 24.5f · Soft · 6 ran 6th 50/1

09 Apr 16 Aintree Ruacana (GB)J: Mr Alex Ferguson Gaskells Waste Management Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 24.5f · Soft · 19 ran 13th 66/1

08 Apr 16 Aintree Qewy (IRE)J: Aidan Coleman Alder Hey Children's Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 20f · Soft · 22 ran BD 25/1

08 Apr 16 Aintree Francis Of Assisi (IRE)J: Mr Alex Ferguson Alder Hey Children's Charity Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 20f · Soft · 22 ran 12th 33/1

03 Apr 16 Ascot Berland (IRE)J: Aidan Coleman Coutts Juvenile Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 15.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 3rd 8/1

01 Apr 16 Fontwell London Prize (GB)J: Aidan Coleman Introducing The Baron To ChancelloroftheFormChecker Standard Open NH Flat RaceClass 6 · 13.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 2nd 2/1F

28 Mar 16 Market Rasen Blue Rambler (GB)J: Aidan Coleman Racing Uk Now In Hd! Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 18.5f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 2/1F

18 Mar 16 Cheltenham Nabucco (GB)J: Craig Nichol Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 2 · 20.5f · Good · 24 ran 14th 28/1

18 Mar 16 Cheltenham Devilment (GB)J: Aidan Coleman Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 26 ran 13th 33/1

18 Mar 16 Cheltenham Francis Of Assisi (IRE)J: Mr Alex Ferguson Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 26 ran 6th 40/1

18 Mar 16 Cheltenham Leoncavallo (IRE)J: Aidan Coleman JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)Class 1 · 17f · Good · 15 ran 5th 18/1

17 Mar 16 Cheltenham Ruacana (GB)J: Mr Alex Ferguson Pertemps Network Final (Listed Handicap Hurdle)Class 1 · 24f · Good · 24 ran 14th 66/1

16 Mar 16 Cheltenham High Bridge (GB)J: Aidan Coleman Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Grade 1 Standard Open NH Flat Race)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 23 ran 6th 12/1

16 Mar 16 Cheltenham Wolfcatcher (IRE)J: Jack Quinlan Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 22 ran 11th 33/1

16 Mar 16 Cheltenham Jaleo (GER)J: Aidan Coleman Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good · 22 ran 10th 6/1F

16 Mar 16 Cheltenham Three Kingdoms (IRE)J: Mr Alex Ferguson Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 26 ran 18th 50/1

16 Mar 16 Cheltenham Commissioned (IRE)J: Mikey Ennis Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 26 ran 13th 66/1

16 Mar 16 Cheltenham Qewy (IRE)J: Aidan Coleman Coral Cup (Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle)Class 1 · 21f · Good · 26 ran 11th 33/1

15 Mar 16 Cheltenham Penglai Pavilion (USA)J: Aidan Coleman Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Grade 1)Class 1 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 14 ran 12th 33/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is John Ferguson's strike rate?: John Ferguson has won 224 of 899 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 24.9% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does John Ferguson do best at?: Stratford by strike rate: 19 wins from 48 runners (39.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for John Ferguson?: Denis O'Regan, with 256 runners since 2008 — 28% of the total. That pairing has won 57 (22.3%).
What is John Ferguson's Fair A/E?: 1.09, from 896 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.