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Trainer profile

Paul Stephen Kiely

223 runners in the lifetime window · 39 individual horses
As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 31 days ago 92% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2016→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
11–223
Wins / Runs
4.9%
Strike rate
n=223
34 (15%)
Placed
0.98
Fair A/E
n=222 · 0.78 incl. margin
−88.90
£1 level stake
n=223 at SP · −39.9%
£126k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.98).

Deterministic profile computed from 223 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 5.6%
The read

Debutants struggle at 0% (n=31, Fair A/E 0.00). The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (10.3%, n=39) and on Good going (8.5%, n=71). The record reads poorly on Good to Soft going — 0% over 33 runners, 4.9pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m5f – 3m: Fair A/E 0.30 across 56 runners (1.8% strike, −43.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 4.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−2.3
n=38 · A/E 0.62 · £1 −17.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
12.5%+7.6
n=8 · A/E 2.53 · £1 +13.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.9
n=31 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −31.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.9
n=11 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −11.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
18.2%+13.3
n=11 · A/E 3.23 · £1 +4.50
When favourite
50%
n=4 · A/E 2.12 · £1 +2.60
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
5.6%+0.7
n=125 · A/E 0.99 · £1 −66.90
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−4.9
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Off a 31-60-day break 10.3% vs 4.9% · n=39
On Good to Soft going 0% vs 4.9% · n=33
With debutants 0% vs 4.9% · n=31
In Chase races 0% vs 4.9% · n=30
On Good going 8.5% vs 4.9% · n=71
Over 2m5f – 3m 1.8% vs 4.9% · n=56
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 149 9 6% −25.00
Chase 30 0 0% −30.00
NH Flat 27 1 3.7% −24.90
Flat 17 1 5.9% −9.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Soft 86 3 3.5% −42.50
Good 71 6 8.5% −14.40
Good to Soft 33 0 0% −33.00
Heavy 31 2 6.5% +3.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cork 38 3 7.9% +13.00
Wexford 36 3 8.3% −17.40
Tramore 32 1 3.1% −22.00
Clonmel 19 0 0% −19.00
Tipperary 18 0 0% −18.00
Limerick 13 0 0% −13.00
Kilbeggan 12 0 0% −12.00
Thurles 10 0 0% −10.00
Gowran Park 8 2 25% +21.00
Punchestown 7 0 0% −7.00
Listowel 6 0 0% −6.00
Sligo 4 1 25% +0.50
Fairyhouse 4 0 0% −4.00
Navan 3 0 0% −3.00
Killarney 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 5 2 40% 1.84 +1.60
2nd–3rd fav 19 0 0% 0.00 −19.00
4th–6th fav 61 8 13.1% 2.03 +40.50
7th+ in betting 138 1 0.7% 0.27 −112.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
89.9% completed · 179 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 30 93.3% 0 1 1 0 0
Hurdle 149 89.3% 0 3 13 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Inchiquin Star (IRE)from David Marnane · then Terence O'Brien 31 4 6 23 Nov 25
Thedancingfarrier (IRE) 31 3 6 6 Sep 24
Chenery (IRE)then Martin Keighley 15 1 4 8 Jun 22
Nashville Notions (IRE) 13 1 1 13 Aug 26
Lady Nightingale (IRE)then Declan Queally 12 0 2 2 Oct 25
Kalnoo (IRE)from P M Hurley 11 0 3 5 Sep 25
Native Song (IRE) 9 0 1 28 May 25
Lily Milan (IRE) 8 0 0 27 May 26
Femme Magnifique (IRE)from W P Mullins · then David Harry Kelly 8 0 1 28 Feb 26
Ladybela (GB) 7 0 0 24 Jul 25
Rose Mahler (IRE)from John Joseph Hanlon 6 0 3 5 Aug 22
Black Soul (IRE)from John E & Thomas Kiely · then Conor Houlihan 5 1 1 22 Oct 25
All 39 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 39 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from John E & Thomas Kiely (2); 31 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Conor Houlihan (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
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A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderCian Quirke
21% of all rides
6.4% SR · A/E 1.18
RiderRWSR£1
Cian Quirke 47 3 6.4% −20.50
Mr R J Kiely 35 1 2.9% −32.90
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2016→
11
Archived wins
£126k
Prize money
2025
Best season · 3 wins
Inchiquin Star (IRE) — County Wexford Vintners Federation Opportunity Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Wexford · Oct 2024
£7,080
Inchiquin Star (IRE) — Tom Murphy Mercedes Benz Mares Handicap Hurdle (80-109) Tramore · Aug 2023
£6,785
Inchiquin Star (IRE) — Robert Grace Live After Racing June 2nd Handicap Gowran Park · May 2025
£6,785
Notable horses
Inchiquin Star (IRE) Thedancingfarrier (IRE) Chenery (IRE) Nashville Notions (IRE) Black Soul (IRE) Inchiquin High (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dansant (GB) 9.7% · 3–31
Progeny have won 7.9% of 545 runs since 2014 (64 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 11.8% from 110.
Mount Nelson (GB) 12.9% · 4–31
Progeny have won 10% of 6,287 runs since 2012 (538 horses).
Milan (GB) 4.8% · 1–21
Progeny have won 11.3% of 16,886 runs since 2008 (1,464 horses).
Court Cave (IRE) 6.7% · 1–15
Progeny have won 10.1% of 7,964 runs since 2008 (553 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 6.8% from 937.
Pillar Coral (GB) 0% · 0–12
Progeny have won 5.4% of 295 runs since 2022 (49 horses). Strongest on Good going: 8.4% from 107.
Kalanisi (IRE) 0% · 0–11
Progeny have won 10.5% of 6,752 runs since 2008 (648 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16.1% from 355.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 223 · newest first

The latest 50 of 223 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 March 2016 to 11 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
11 Oct 26 Cork (IRE) Outlaw Thief (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle20.5f · Good · 7 ran PU 80/1
25 Sep 26 Listowel (IRE) Outlaw Thief (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald John J. Galvin Maiden Hurdle18f · Good To Yielding · 15 ran 9th 200/1
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 16 ran 10th 14/1
23 Jul 26 Wexford (IRE) Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Cottage Autism Network Handicap Hurdle (Div II)24f · Good · 14 ran 6th 20/1
03 Jul 26 Wexford Great Entirely (IRE)J: Dylan O'Connor Shamrock Enterprises Maiden Hurdle20f · Good · 14 ran 7th 33/1
15 Jun 26 Kilbeggan Great Entirely (IRE)J: Mr E P O'Brien Old Harbour Bar Tullamore (Q.R.) Maiden Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 12 ran 5th 22/1
05 Jun 26 Clonmel Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Paul Kavanagh Memorial Handicap Hurdle (0-100)22.5f · Good · 15 ran 12th 16/1
28 May 26 Limerick Great Entirely (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Daredevil Events Adrenaline Stunt Circus Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 18 ran PU 25/1
27 May 26 Wexford Lily Milan (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche Wexford Harbour Handicap Hurdle (0-100)24f · Good To Yielding · 14 ran 9th 16/1
16 May 26 Wexford Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche Ambrex Switchgear Handicap Hurdle24f · Good To Yielding · 13 ran 8th 12/1
10 Apr 26 Wexford Great Entirely (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction Maiden Hurdle20f · Good To Yielding · 8 ran 6th 40/1
05 Apr 26 Cork Lily Milan (IRE)J: Tiernan Power Roche O'Flynn Motors Mallow Mares Maiden Hurdle19f · Yielding · 14 ran 6th 40/1
31 Mar 26 Limerick Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Liam Quinlan Party Time Mares Handicap Hurdle21.5f · Soft · 14 ran 5th 50/1
19 Mar 26 Cork Lily Milan (IRE)J: Anna McGuinness William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Mares (Ladies Pro/Am) Flat Race16f · Yielding · 13 ran 8th 12/1
19 Mar 26 Cork Nashville Notions (IRE)J: Mr S P Queally Gentlemen's League Fegentri World Championship (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle24f · Yielding · 11 ran UR 22/1
28 Feb 26 Navan Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Balreask Bar, Restaurant & Guest Accommodation Mares Handicap Chase20.5f · Heavy · 5 ran 3rd 16/1
05 Feb 26 Thurles Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Racing Again On The 19th February Handicap Chase18f · Soft · 16 ran 7th 20/1
18 Jan 26 Thurles Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Carey Glass Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase (Grade 2)21f · Yielding · 6 ran 6th 100/1
01 Jan 26 Tramore Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke SIS Supporting Irish Racing Rated Novice Chase16f · Soft · 9 ran 5th 8/1
02 Dec 25 Clonmel Femme Magnifique (IRE)J: Cian Quirke Next Race Meeting January 8th Novice Handicap Chase18.5f · Heavy · 12 ran 3rd 25/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 11 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 11 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Paul Stephen Kiely's strike rate?
Paul Stephen Kiely has won 11 of 223 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.9% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Stephen Kiely do best at?
Wexford by strike rate: 3 wins from 36 runners (8.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Paul Stephen Kiely's Fair A/E?
0.98, from 222 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 11 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).