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Trainer profile

Paula Smith

57 runners in the last 5 seasons · 17 individual horses
As at 20 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 272 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2022
1–57
Wins / Runs
1.8%
Strike rate
n=57
1 (2%)
Placed
0.71
Fair A/E
n=57 · 0.61 incl. margin
−47.00
£1 level stake
n=57 at SP · −82.5%
£10,513
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 2.8%

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 1.8% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
4.5%+2.7
n=22 · A/E 2.31 · £1 −12.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
9.1%+7.3
n=11 · A/E 2.12 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−1.8
n=3 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −3.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−1.8
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−1.8
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
2.8%+1.0
n=36 · A/E 1.21 · £1 −26.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 1.8% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 43 1 2.3% −33.00
Chase 11 0 0% −11.00
NH Flat 3 0 0% −3.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 21 1 4.8% −11.00
Soft 18 0 0% −18.00
Good to Soft 12 0 0% −12.00
Heavy 5 0 0% −5.00
Good to Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Hexham 13 0 0% −13.00
Sedgefield 10 0 0% −10.00
Market Rasen 10 0 0% −10.00
Wetherby 6 0 0% −6.00
Catterick 5 1 20% +5.00
Carlisle 4 0 0% −4.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00
Newcastle 2 0 0% −2.00
Bangor-on-Dee 1 0 0% −1.00
Southwell 1 0 0% −1.00
Stratford 1 0 0% −1.00
Haydock 1 0 0% −1.00
Kelso 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 34 0 0% −34.00
Class 4 21 1 4.8% −11.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00
Class 3 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
2nd–3rd fav 2 1 50% 5.04 +8.00
4th–6th fav 16 0 0% 0.00 −16.00
7th+ in betting 39 0 0% 0.00 −39.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
68.5% completed · 54 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 11 72.7% 0 0 3 0 0
Hurdle 43 67.4% 0 0 14 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
One Fer Mamma (IRE)from Matt Sheppard 9 0 0 3 Feb 25
Across The Channel (FR)from Philip Hobbs 7 0 0 14 Mar 23
Strip Light (IRE)from R K Watson 5 0 0 6 Sep 24
Iheardupainthouses (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 5 0 0 17 Jun 23
Dudley's Bar (IRE)from C A Murphy 4 0 0 12 Dec 25
Edmond Dantes (FR)from Ruth Jefferson 3 0 0 16 Nov 23
Hallowed Ground (IRE) 3 0 0 6 May 23
Blooming Fortune (IRE) 3 0 0 31 Mar 23
Welsh Reign (IRE)from Tim Reed 3 0 0 10 Jan 23
Sun Lady Marine (FR)from D Bressou 2 0 0 21 Jan 26
Melrose Jack (GB) 2 0 0 6 Dec 25
Selectivelistening (IRE)from T Ellis 2 0 0 3 Apr 25
All 17 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 17 horses listed, 12 arrived from another yard in our archive; 5 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 16 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, 5 seasons
JFMAMJJASOND
008000000000
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Emma Smith-Chaston 29 1 3.4% −19.00
Brian Hughes 4 0 0% −4.00
Charlie Maggs 3 0 0% −3.00
Peter Kavanagh 3 0 0% −3.00
Danny McMenamin 3 0 0% −3.00
Charlotte Jones 2 0 0% −2.00
Stephen Mulqueen 2 0 0% −2.00
Conor O'Farrell 2 0 0% −2.00
Craig Nichol 1 0 0% −1.00
Ross Chapman 1 0 0% −1.00
Alan Doyle 1 0 0% −1.00
Dillan Hurst 1 0 0% −1.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
3
Archived wins
£29,611
Prize money
2019
Best season · 2 wins
Dallas Cowboy (IRE) — Gamble Responsibly With MansionBet Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Dec 2019 · Class 5
£4,874
Assorda (FR) — racingtv.com Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Catterick · Mar 2025 · Class 4
£4,524
Dallas Cowboy (IRE) — Jumping For Joy With Free RacingTV Handicap Chase Catterick · Nov 2019 · Class 5
£3,834
Notable horses
Dallas Cowboy (IRE) Assorda (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,487 runs since 2008 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Outstrip (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,273 runs since 2008 (239 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 631. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 263.
Dunkerque (FR) 0% · 0–7
Progeny have won 6.6% of 574 runs since 2008 (57 horses).
Born To Sea (IRE) 0% · 0–5
Progeny have won 9.1% of 4,271 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest on Soft going: 12.1% from 960. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 4.4% from 864. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 5.8% from 723.
Imperial Monarch (IRE) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 8.3% of 1,584 runs since 2008 (172 horses).
Mahler (GB) 0% · 0–3
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,836 runs since 2008 (784 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 20 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 104 · newest first

The latest 50 of 104 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 September 2019 to 21 January 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Jan 26 Catterick Sun Lady Marine (FR)J: Charlie Maggs Jumps Look Better On Racing TV Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 150/1
30 Dec 25 Haydock Sun Lady Marine (FR)J: Charlie Maggs Betfred 'Happy New Year' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 15.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 66/1
12 Dec 25 Doncaster Dudley's Bar (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Lady Florence Of Chapeltown Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 50/1
06 Dec 25 Wetherby Melrose Jack (GB)J: Charlie Maggs racingtv.com Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 14 ran 13th 500/1
13 Nov 25 Sedgefield Dudley's Bar (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Canine Premier Flex Plus Joint Supplement Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 33/1
06 Nov 25 Sedgefield Dudley's Bar (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Fairlight Studios At Sedgefield Racecourse Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 4th 125/1
14 Apr 25 Hexham Melrose Jack (GB)J: Charlotte Jones Download The At The Races App 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 150/1
03 Apr 25 Sedgefield Selectivelistening (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Lakeland Dairies 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran PU 80/1
22 Mar 25 Kelso Assorda (FR)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Ladbrokes Herring Queen Series Final Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 80/1
15 Mar 25 Newcastle He's A Ripper (FR)J: Brian Hughes Pimm's At Ramside Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 33/1
05 Mar 25 Catterick Assorda (FR)J: Emma Smith-Chaston racingtv.com Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 9/1
03 Feb 25 Carlisle One Fer Mamma (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24.5f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 40/1
01 Feb 25 Wetherby He's A Ripper (FR)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Watch Race Replays At racingtv.com Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 9th 150/1
05 Dec 24 Market Rasen One Fer Mamma (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Discover What's Trending At Rhino.Bet Casino Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 25/1
05 Nov 24 Sedgefield Selectivelistening (IRE)J: Brian Hughes George Reveley Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 7th 12/1
06 Sep 24 Bangor-on-Dee Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Bangor-On-Dee Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 11th 100/1
27 Aug 24 Stratford Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston National Racehorse Week 7th -15th September Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 14th 125/1
20 Jul 24 Market Rasen Hill Spirit (GB)J: Brian Hughes Unibet More Extra Places Everyday Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 28/1
07 Jun 24 Market Rasen Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Gallery Premium Partners Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 125/1
23 May 24 Market Rasen Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Nicholsons Centenary Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 125/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paula Smith's strike rate?
Paula Smith has won 1 of 57 runners since 2022, a strike rate of 1.8% (as at 20 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
What is Paula Smith's Fair A/E?
0.71, from 57 runners with a computed fair probability since 2022. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 20 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).