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Trainer profile

Paula Smith

104 runners in the lifetime window · 25 individual horses
As at 31 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 283 days ago 100% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2019→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
3–104
Wins / Runs
2.9%
Strike rate
n=104
7 (7%)
Placed
0.77
Fair A/E
n=104 · 0.66 incl. margin
−80.00
£1 level stake
n=104 at SP · −76.9%
£29,611
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 3% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).

Deterministic profile computed from 104 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 31 Oct 2026
KTB at a glance Emma Smith-Chaston: 5.5% from 55 Claiming riders: 4%
The read

Emma Smith-Chaston rides 53% of the entries and edges the yard's average (5.5% vs 2.9%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well in Chase races (6.5%, n=31). The market has consistently overbet the yard in Hurdle races: Fair A/E 0.55 across 66 runners (1.5% strike, −56.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.9% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−0.3
n=38 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −28.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
5.3%+2.4
n=19 · A/E 1.09 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−2.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−2.9
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−2.9
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4%+1.1
n=75 · A/E 1.02 · £1 −51.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Chase races 6.5% vs 2.9% · n=31
With Emma Smith-Chaston 5.5% vs 2.9% · n=55
In Hurdle races 1.5% vs 2.9% · n=66 · A/E 0.55
With a new jockey booking 2% vs 2.9% · n=51 · A/E 0.58
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 66 1 1.5% −56.00
Chase 31 2 6.5% −17.00
NH Flat 7 0 0% −7.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 43 1 2.3% −33.00
Soft 29 1 3.4% −25.00
Good to Soft 21 1 4.8% −11.00
Heavy 6 0 0% −6.00
Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00
Good to Firm 2 0 0% −2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Market Rasen 26 1 3.8% −22.00
Hexham 18 0 0% −18.00
Sedgefield 15 0 0% −15.00
Catterick 11 2 18.2% +9.00
Wetherby 8 0 0% −8.00
Newcastle 7 0 0% −7.00
Carlisle 4 0 0% −4.00
Kelso 3 0 0% −3.00
Stratford 2 0 0% −2.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00
Musselburgh 2 0 0% −2.00
Uttoxeter 1 0 0% −1.00
Haydock 1 0 0% −1.00
Southwell 1 0 0% −1.00
Huntingdon 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 5 58 2 3.4% −44.00
Class 4 43 1 2.3% −33.00
Class 3 2 0 0% −2.00
Class 2 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 1 1 100% 4.80 +3.00
2nd–3rd fav 4 1 25% 1.64 +6.00
4th–6th fav 31 1 3.2% 0.57 −21.00
7th+ in betting 68 0 0% 0.00 −68.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
71.1% completed · 97 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 31 71% 0 0 9 0 0
Hurdle 66 71.2% 0 0 19 0 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Dallas Cowboy (IRE)from Tim Fitzgerald 13 2 3 2 Dec 21
One Fer Mamma (IRE)from Matt Sheppard 9 0 0 3 Feb 25
Molly Whuppie (GB)from Tim Fitzgerald 8 0 3 20 Jun 21
Hallowed Ground (IRE) 7 0 0 6 May 23
Across The Channel (FR)from Philip Hobbs 7 0 0 14 Mar 23
Sporting Press (IRE)from Keith Dalgleish 6 0 0 20 Jan 21
Carrigmoorna Matt (IRE)from Neil Mulholland 6 0 0 14 Mar 20
Strip Light (IRE)from R K Watson 5 0 0 6 Sep 24
Iheardupainthouses (IRE)from Gordon Elliott 5 0 0 17 Jun 23
Dudley's Bar (IRE)from C A Murphy 4 0 0 12 Dec 25
Ryedale Cowboy (IRE) 4 0 0 27 Sep 22
Edmond Dantes (FR)from Ruth Jefferson 3 0 0 16 Nov 23
All 25 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 25 horses listed, 19 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Tim Fitzgerald (2); 6 had their first archived run for this yard.

1 has since run for another yard; 24 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
006000000067
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderEmma Smith-Chaston
53% of all rides
5.5% SR · A/E 1.26
RiderRWSR£1
Emma Smith-Chaston 55 3 5.5% −31.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2019→
3
Archived wins
£29,611
Prize money
2019
Best season · 2 wins
Dallas Cowboy (IRE) — Gamble Responsibly With MansionBet Handicap Chase Market Rasen · Dec 2019 · Class 5
£4,874
Assorda (FR) — racingtv.com Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) Catterick · Mar 2025 · Class 4
£4,524
Dallas Cowboy (IRE) — Jumping For Joy With Free RacingTV Handicap Chase Catterick · Nov 2019 · Class 5
£3,834
Notable horses
Dallas Cowboy (IRE) Assorda (FR)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Beneficial (GB) 12.5% · 2–16
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,045 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,491 runs since 2008 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Outstrip (GB) 0% · 0–9
Progeny have won 8.8% of 3,284 runs since 2008 (240 horses). Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 12.8% from 634. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.7% from 264.
Beat Hollow (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 11.3% of 6,031 runs since 2008 (412 horses).
Mahler (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 10.8% of 8,859 runs since 2008 (785 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.1% from 119.
Westerner (GB) 0% · 0–8
Progeny have won 12.2% of 11,843 runs since 2008 (942 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 188.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 31 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 104 · newest first

The latest 50 of 104 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 September 2019 to 21 January 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
21 Jan 26 Catterick Sun Lady Marine (FR)J: Charlie Maggs Jumps Look Better On Racing TV Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 15 ran PU 150/1
30 Dec 25 Haydock Sun Lady Marine (FR)J: Charlie Maggs Betfred 'Happy New Year' Handicap HurdleClass 3 · 15.5f · Good · 8 ran PU 66/1
12 Dec 25 Doncaster Dudley's Bar (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Lady Florence Of Chapeltown Novices' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran PU 50/1
06 Dec 25 Wetherby Melrose Jack (GB)J: Charlie Maggs racingtv.com Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Soft · 14 ran 13th 500/1
13 Nov 25 Sedgefield Dudley's Bar (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Canine Premier Flex Plus Joint Supplement Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Soft · 10 ran 7th 33/1
06 Nov 25 Sedgefield Dudley's Bar (IRE)J: Peter Kavanagh Fairlight Studios At Sedgefield Racecourse Conditional Jockeys' Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 6 ran 4th 125/1
14 Apr 25 Hexham Melrose Jack (GB)J: Charlotte Jones Download The At The Races App 'National Hunt' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran 9th 150/1
03 Apr 25 Sedgefield Selectivelistening (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Lakeland Dairies 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 20f · Good · 8 ran PU 80/1
22 Mar 25 Kelso Assorda (FR)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Ladbrokes Herring Queen Series Final Mares' Novices' Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 2 · 16f · Good To Soft · 12 ran PU 80/1
15 Mar 25 Newcastle He's A Ripper (FR)J: Brian Hughes Pimm's At Ramside Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 17f · Good To Soft · 5 ran 4th 33/1
05 Mar 25 Catterick Assorda (FR)J: Emma Smith-Chaston racingtv.com Mares' Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 15.5f · Good · 4 ran 1st 9/1
03 Feb 25 Carlisle One Fer Mamma (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Every Race Live On Racing TV Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24.5f · Soft · 15 ran 10th 40/1
01 Feb 25 Wetherby He's A Ripper (FR)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Watch Race Replays At racingtv.com Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race) (Div 1)Class 5 · 16f · Soft · 9 ran 9th 150/1
05 Dec 24 Market Rasen One Fer Mamma (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Discover What's Trending At Rhino.Bet Casino Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 24f · Soft · 8 ran 4th 25/1
05 Nov 24 Sedgefield Selectivelistening (IRE)J: Brian Hughes George Reveley Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 21f · Good · 11 ran 7th 12/1
06 Sep 24 Bangor-on-Dee Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Bangor-On-Dee Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 12 ran 11th 100/1
27 Aug 24 Stratford Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston National Racehorse Week 7th -15th September Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 15 ran 14th 125/1
20 Jul 24 Market Rasen Hill Spirit (GB)J: Brian Hughes Unibet More Extra Places Everyday Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran 5th 28/1
07 Jun 24 Market Rasen Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Gallery Premium Partners Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 125/1
23 May 24 Market Rasen Strip Light (IRE)J: Emma Smith-Chaston Nicholsons Centenary Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16.5f · Good · 6 ran 5th 125/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paula Smith's strike rate?
Paula Smith has won 3 of 104 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.9% (as at 31 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Who rides most for Paula Smith?
Emma Smith-Chaston, with 55 runners since 2008 — 53% of the total. That pairing has won 3 (5.5%).
What is Paula Smith's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 104 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 31 October 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).