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Trainer profile

Robson De Aguiar

267 runners in the lifetime window · 65 individual horses
As at 11 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Non-runners: 12.2% of 304 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 11 Nov 2026.
Last runner 5 days ago 100% of runners on the flat
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2025→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
31–267
Wins / Runs
11.6%
Strike rate
n=267
76 (29%)
Placed
1.01
Fair A/E
n=267 · 0.84 incl. margin
−15.85
£1 level stake
n=267 at SP · −5.9%
£1.19m
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
11.3%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01).

Deterministic profile computed from 267 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 11 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance 48.4% when favourite Donagh O'Connor: 13% from 123 Sends off the favourite in 12% of races
The read

The record is strongest at Dundalk (AW) (19.5%, n=82), clear of the yard's 11.6% baseline. In Group and Graded company the record reads poorly at 2.7% (n=74, Fair A/E 0.36). Donagh O'Connor rides 46% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (13%, A/E 1.18) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well on Standard (AW) going (18.6%, n=86). The record reads poorly in Class 1 — 2.7% over 74 runners, 8.9pts below the baseline. 2 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Glenroyal Hotel And Shoda Café Minstrel Stakes at Curragh (IRE) (Jul 2026, £78,000).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 11.6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
10.8%−0.8
n=37 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −28.22
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.5%−0.1
n=26 · A/E 0.66 · £1 −19.13
Debutants · first career start
12.5%+0.9
n=40 · A/E 0.98 · £1 +29.69
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−11.6
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−11.6
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
48.4%
n=31 · A/E 1.29 · £1 +3.49
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.3%−5.3
n=16 · A/E 1.39 · £1 +35.00
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
2.7%−8.9
n=74 · A/E 0.36 · £1 −54.90

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 11.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
In Class 1 2.7% vs 11.6% · n=74
In Group / Graded races 2.7% vs 11.6% · n=74
At Dundalk (AW) 19.5% vs 11.6% · n=82
With David Egan 3.4% vs 11.6% · n=58
With C&D winners 20.6% vs 11.6% · n=34
On Standard (AW) going 18.6% vs 11.6% · n=86
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 86 16 18.6% +15.81
Good 77 7 9.1% −23.45
Soft 42 3 7.1% −34.31
Good to Firm 38 4 10.5% +40.60
Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00
Good to Soft 10 1 10% −0.50

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Dundalk (AW) 82 16 19.5% +19.81
Curragh 78 5 6.4% +0.93
Naas 28 3 10.7% +0.80
Leopardstown 18 0 0% −18.00
Cork 13 3 23.1% +6.00
Navan 11 3 27.3% +2.61
Ascot 9 0 0% −9.00
Gowran Park 6 1 16.7% +3.00
Fairyhouse 3 0 0% −3.00
Newmarket 2 0 0% −2.00
Bellewstown 2 0 0% −2.00
Doncaster 2 0 0% −2.00
Newcastle (AW) 2 0 0% −2.00
York 2 0 0% −2.00
Down Royal 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 74 2 2.7% −54.90
Class 2 8 0 0% −8.00
Class 4 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 33 15 45.5% 1.23 +1.49
2nd–3rd fav 60 9 15% 0.88 −15.34
4th–6th fav 92 5 5.4% 0.81 −22.00
7th+ in betting 82 2 2.4% 0.91 +20.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Valiant Force (USA)from Adrian Murray 14 1 2 23 Oct 26
Carolina Jetstream (GB)from Adrian Murray 12 2 5 6 Nov 26
Flanker Jet (GB)from Adrian Murray 10 2 5 6 Nov 26
Reposado (GB)from Adrian Murray · then Dylan Cunha 10 0 3 3 Jul 26
Spicy Margarita (IRE)from Adrian Murray 9 0 0 6 Nov 26
Dallas Star (FR)from Adrian Murray · then Emmet Mullins 9 0 2 22 Aug 26
Ipanema Queen (IRE)from Adrian Murray 8 1 2 23 Oct 26
Belle Island (GB) 8 0 1 23 Oct 26
Power Blue (IRE)from Adrian Murray 8 1 2 17 Oct 26
Fate's Gambit (IRE)then Ruth Carr 8 0 2 24 Jul 26
Controlla (IRE) 6 1 3 2 Oct 26
Tosca No Candis (IRE) 6 1 1 27 Sep 26
Showing the 60 most-raced of the 65 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 22 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Adrian Murray (17) and Kevin Philippart De Foy (4); 38 had their first archived run for this yard.

7 have since run for another yard; 53 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 5
Only 5 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
3619167108915971120
A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderDonagh O'Connor
46% of all rides
13% SR · A/E 1.18
RiderRWSR£1
Donagh O'Connor 123 16 13% −34.66
David Egan 58 2 3.4% −52.56
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2025→
31
Archived wins
2
Pattern / graded wins
£1.19m
Prize money
2026
Best season · 29 wins
Power Blue (IRE) — Glenroyal Hotel And Shoda Café Minstrel Stakes (Group 2) Curragh (IRE) · Jul 2026 · Group 2
£78,000
Ballinea Star (IRE) — Jebel Ali Racecourse And Stables Anglesey Stakes (Group 3) Curragh · Jun 2026 · Group 3
£41,230
Ipanema Queen (IRE) — Doneraile Handicap Cork (IRE) · Jul 2026
£30,000
Notable horses
Carolina Jetstream (GB) Flanker Jet (GB) Ballinea Star (IRE) Force Noir (IRE) Bryant (IRE) Blanc De Blanc (USA)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Wootton Bassett (GB) 13% · 3–23
Progeny have won 13% of 5,710 runs since 2015 (793 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.
Space Blues (IRE) 13.6% · 3–22
Progeny have won 12.6% of 755 runs since 2025 (132 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 16% from 169.
Mehmas (IRE) 5.6% · 1–18
Progeny have won 11.5% of 8,241 runs since 2020 (755 horses).
Persian Force (IRE) 22.2% · 4–18
Progeny have won 13.5% of 222 runs since 2026 (54 horses).
Ubettabelieveit (IRE) 0% · 0–16
Progeny have won 10.4% of 461 runs since 2025 (78 horses).
Malibu Moon (USA) 7.1% · 1–14
Progeny have won 8.2% of 196 runs since 2008 (28 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 11 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 267 · newest first

The latest 50 of 267 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 14 November 2025 to 6 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Flanker Jet (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor BAR 1 Betting '2Up Early Payout' Handicap8f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 25/1
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Spicy Margarita (IRE)J: David Egan BAR 1 Betting '2Up Early Payout' Handicap8f · Standard · 8 ran 4th 18/1
06 Nov 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Carolina Jetstream (GB)J: David Egan Irish Stallion Farms EBF Cooley Fillies Stakes (Listed)Class 1 · 8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 11/4F
30 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Rejoinder (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 9/2
29 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Darlene (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Premiere Weekend Race & Dine Packages From €75pp Nursery Handicap7f · Yielding · 6 ran 2nd 9/1
28 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Mudyrk (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden7f · Standard · 11 ran 9th 5/4F
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Shamrock Flame (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor Des Byrne Memorial Maiden10.5f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 4/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Celtic Comet (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Irish EBF Median Sires Series Maiden (Smullen Series)8f · Standard · 14 ran 5th 16/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Ipanema Queen (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor BAR 1 Betting Mercury Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 12th 14/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Valiant Force (USA)J: Ben Coen BAR 1 Betting Mercury Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 5f · Standard · 13 ran 8th 10/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Cat Blade (GB)J: Patrick McGettigan Fastfix Quay Celtic 60th Anniversary Nursery Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 28/1
23 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Belle Island (GB)J: Nicola Burns Fastfix Quay Celtic 60th Anniversary Nursery Handicap5f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 40/1
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Sonny Hayes (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 11th 11/2
20 Oct 26 Curragh (IRE) Rejoinder (IRE)J: Leigh Roche 1xBet.ie Supporting October Racing Irish EBF Maiden6f · Yielding · 13 ran 2nd 50/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Flanker Jet (GB)J: Adam Browne-Souza Nord Anglia International School Dublin Foxrock Cup Handicap8.5f · Good · 16 ran 16th 40/1
18 Oct 26 Leopardstown (IRE) Shamrock Flame (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor Leopardstown Golf, Padel And Range Maiden9f · Good · 15 ran 4th 16/1
17 Oct 26 Ascot Power Blue (IRE)J: David Egan Qatar Racing British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1)Class 1 · 6f · Good · 16 ran 6th 33/1
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Valiant Force (USA)J: W. M. Lordan BAR 1 Betting 'Supporting Irish Racing' Handicap7f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 17/2
16 Oct 26 Dundalk (AW) (IRE) Firewalker (GB)J: Donagh O'Connor Book Online At DundalkStadium.com Maiden6f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 15/8F
11 Oct 26 Naas (IRE) Rejoinder (IRE)J: Donagh O'Connor Tifrums Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden6f · Soft · 7 ran 4th 22/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 11 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 3 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 1 run (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 4 runs (won 0, 1 did not run) · to 6 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Robson De Aguiar's strike rate?
Robson De Aguiar has won 31 of 267 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 11.6% (as at 11 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Robson De Aguiar do best at?
Dundalk (AW) by strike rate: 16 wins from 82 runners (19.5%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Robson De Aguiar?
Donagh O'Connor, with 123 runners since 2008 — 46% of the total. That pairing has won 16 (13%).
Is Robson De Aguiar in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 5 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Robson De Aguiar's Fair A/E?
1.01, from 267 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 11 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).