S Kobayashi
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Sends out around 80 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 6% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.94). Horses with headgear back on after a bare run strike at 9% (47 runs).
New recruits from other stables on their first run struggle at 2% (n=51, Fair A/E 0.46). The market has consistently overbet debutants: 2.5% strike, Fair A/E 0.40 and −113.20 to a £1 stake over 163 runners — those runners underperform what the price implies. Pierre Bazire rides 10% of the entries and sits below the yard's average (2.7% vs 6.1%, A/E 0.47). The yard also reads well on Heavy going (10.7%, n=159). 7 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Prix de Flore at Saint-Cloud (FR) (Oct 2024, £34,783).
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.1% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses trained
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleWhen the yard fires
strike by month, lifetimeJockey bookings
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2010→Sires in the string
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,449 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,449 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 April 2010 to 4 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is S Kobayashi's strike rate?
- S Kobayashi has won 89 of 1,449 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.1% (as at 4 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does S Kobayashi do best at?
- Maisons-Laffitte (FR) by strike rate: 11 wins from 110 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Who rides most for S Kobayashi?
- Pierre Bazire, with 149 runners since 2008 — 10% of the total. That pairing has won 4 (2.7%).
- Is S Kobayashi in form?
- Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 8 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is S Kobayashi's Fair A/E?
- 0.94, from 1,422 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.