5:37 Bath
The second division of this Class 6 handicap over a mile at Bath on good ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers, several of whom are in reasonable recent form yet lack real depth of quality. KTB’s numbers identify a clear top five on Fit ratings, headed by Desert Charm on 61, with the remainder of the field trailing off sharply below the 50 mark. The race looks competitive on paper but the strong pace anticipated could create opportunities for those capable of timing a late run.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, an early battle for the lead is expected. Who Is Alice and Coiled are the types to go forward, while Eye Of The Water is likely to race prominently. This setup raises the strong possibility of the pace collapsing in the final furlong, which would hand the advantage to the numerous hold-up performers in the line-up.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Desert Charm KTB Selection61/100
Desert Charm arrives in excellent order with recent form figures of -31128 and is the clear KTB Selection on a Fit rating of 61. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late, a run-style that looks ideal given the anticipated strong pace. Trainer Mike Murphy has a 12% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.92 from 25 runs, while Daniel Muscutt’s 17% strike rate at the track from 130 rides adds further confidence. The horse has recorded two wins from three starts on good ground with a further placing, though it has no course form on record. It went off at SP in a field of 14 last time and is taken to capitalise on a favourable set-up here.
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2Freedom Bay56/100
Freedom Bay is the second highest rated on KTB Fit at 56 and brings solid recent form of -01328. Like the selection, this four-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late with high confidence. Trainer Zoe Hawkins has an impressive 25% strike rate at Bath from only four runs with an A/E of 1.8, and the horse has already won here from one visit. Kieran O’Neill’s 10% strike rate at the track from 382 rides is respectable, and the gelding has a win and a placing from two starts on good ground. It went off at SP in a field of 14 last time and is sure to be in the mix if the race falls apart late.
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3Thai Princess54/100
Thai Princess is next on KTB Fit at 54 with recent form of 464530. The three-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late, though the confidence in that assessment is only medium. Trainer Adrian Wintle has a 16% strike rate at Bath from 266 runs with an A/E of 1.11, while Finley Marsh’s 15% strike rate at the venue from 245 rides is similar. The filly has no runs on good ground so remains unproven on the surface, and her sole course visit produced a third but no win or place. She went off at SP in a field of 14 last time and could improve if the ground is not an issue.
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4Who Is Alice50/100
Who Is Alice is rated 50 on KTB Fit with recent form of 096553. This three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which could see it contest the lead in a race expected to be strongly run. Trainer Grace Harris has a 9% strike rate at Bath from 304 runs with an A/E of 0.89, though Harry Vigors has a 0% strike rate at the track from just two rides. The filly has been placed twice from three starts on good ground without winning, and her two course visits produced a third and a ninth. She went off at SP in a field of 14 last time and her ability to get the early fractions could prove important.
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5Typeface48/100
Typeface completes the principals on a KTB Fit of 48 with recent form of 7-6433. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late with high confidence, fitting the profile that could be favoured if the strong pace collapses. Trainer Ian Williams has a 12% strike rate at Bath from 163 runs with an A/E of 0.86, while Jack Callan’s 11% strike rate at the track from 27 rides is lower. The horse has two wins from four starts on good ground with three placings overall on the surface, though it has no course form on record. It went off at SP in a field of 14 last time and remains capable of a bold show.
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6Quite Sweet47/100
Quite Sweet has recent form of -60949 and is rated 47 on KTB Fit. Usually held up with high confidence, the trainer has an 11% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.02 from 863 runs, though the horse has no course form and has failed to win or place in two runs on good ground.
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7Girls Allowed45/100
Girls Allowed has recent form of 6-4629 and a KTB Fit of 45. Usually held up with medium confidence, the trainer has a 22% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.16 from nine runs, though the horse has no course form and showed no win or place in its only run on good ground.
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8Coiled42/100
Coiled has recent form of 000739 and is rated 42 on KTB Fit. Tends to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence, the trainer has a 14% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.99 from 21 runs, and the horse has been placed three times from five starts on good ground without winning.
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9Amarachi42/100
Amarachi has recent form of 226296 and a KTB Fit of 42, now fitted with first-time headgear. Usually held up with high confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Bath from nine runs, the horse has no course form and remains unproven on good ground.
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10Savvi Row39/100
Savvi Row has recent form of 97-75 and is rated 39 on KTB Fit. Usually held up though with only limited evidence and low confidence, the trainer has a 10% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.87 from 716 runs, and the horse remains unproven on good ground with no course form.
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11Rival37/100
Rival has recent form of 4-8657 and a KTB Fit of 37. Usually held up with medium confidence, the trainer has a 5% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 0.51 from 60 runs, and the horse has been placed once from six course visits but without a win.
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12Mooretown Lad36/100
Mooretown Lad has recent form of 747275 and is rated 36 on KTB Fit. Usually held up with high confidence, the trainer has a 16% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.11 from 266 runs, though the jockey has a 4% strike rate at the track from 47 rides and the horse has one win from seven starts on good ground.
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13Lady V35/100
Lady V has recent form of 6-869 and a KTB Fit of 35. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at Bath from four runs, the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track from 45 rides, and the horse has shown no win or place in its only run on good ground with no course form.
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14Eye Of The Water34/100
Eye Of The Water has recent form of 463635 and is rated 34 on KTB Fit. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence, the trainer has a 0% strike rate at Bath from four runs, though the horse has won twice here from 27 visits and has been placed four times from 15 starts on good ground without winning.
KTB verdict
Desert Charm is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of current form, suitable run-style and conditions. The four-year-old’s hold-up style should be perfectly suited if the strong pace materialises as expected, and the trainer-jockey combination adds further appeal. Freedom Bay is the most obvious danger given its course win and similar late-run profile, while Thai Princess, Who Is Alice and Typeface are the other principals who cannot be dismissed in a race that could fall apart in the closing stages.
KTB Selection Desert Charm
This is the narrative read of the 5:37 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Bath results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the early pace?
Who Is Alice tends to make the running or race on the pace, Coiled tends to make the running or race on the pace, and Eye Of The Water usually races handily on or close to the lead.
Why is Desert Charm the KTB Selection?
Desert Charm has the highest KTB Fit rating of 61, recent form of -31128, a hold-up run-style that suits the expected strong pace, and a good record on good ground with two wins from three starts.
Which runners are unproven on good ground?
Thai Princess has no runs on good, Amarachi has no runs on good, Savvi Row has no runs on good, and Lady V has one run on good with no win or place.
Which horses have previous course wins at Bath?
Freedom Bay has won here from one visit, and Eye Of The Water has won here twice from 27 visits.
Which trainers have the strongest strike rates at Bath according to the supplied data?
Zoe Hawkins has a 25% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.8 from four runs, and the Birkett stable has a 22% strike rate at Bath with an A/E of 1.16 from nine runs.
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