5:45 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 6 handicap division at Wolverhampton over 7f on standard ground brings together a field of limited performers, several of whom are winless for some time and others making their first appearance at the track. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Elias Escape heading the numbers on 55 despite modest form to date, followed closely by Nubough, Sanditon, Liberty Bird and Enjoy The Night all in the 48-54 range. Most of the runners are exposed and modest on their overall records, though several hold placed form at the course and the race features a strong pace shape that could create opportunities for those coming from off the speed.
How the race shapes up
With a strong pace likely and at least two habitual front-runners present, the race is set to be run at a solid gallop that may leave the leaders vulnerable late on. Enjoy The Night and Gloriola are the types to make or contest the running from their respective draws, while the bulk of the field consists of hold-up performers who will look to conserve energy early and pounce when the pace collapses. This sets up a race that could be won from off the pace, posing the key question of whether any of the hold-up types can produce the necessary late kick once the leaders come back to them in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Elias Escape KTB Selection55/100
Elias Escape has shown only modest form in three runs to date and carries the limited label for this company. The yard posts a solid 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton but this lightly raced colt remains largely unexposed. Trip looks about right having tried 7f twice already. He is a 3-year-old dropping in class from a wide draw of 9 and will be held up to produce his effort late. Cam Hardie takes the ride for the Richard and Peter Fahey stable, which has a 2/46 record with this jockey, and the colt remains unproven on standard ground with no previous course form.
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2Nubough54/100
Nubough is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well held on his only previous visit to this track. He drops back from a mile today having won once at this trip from 20 attempts but his overall record on the all-weather is modest. The 10-year-old has four wins from 29 starts on standard ground and will again be held up to deliver his effort late. Mark Pattinson's yard operates at a 6% strike rate here from 18 runs while Kieren Fox has a 9% record at the track; the pair combine with a 0/9 record together and the horse has no win or place from his sole course start.
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3Sanditon51/100
Sanditon is a limited performer who has won over this trip and at this track. Recent form has been patchy and he is now 26 runs into a busy campaign. He will be held up with high confidence in that run-style and has two wins from 15 starts on standard ground along with a win from six course visits. The Charlie Johnston yard has a 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton while Jack Mitchell rides at a 17% rate here; their combined record stands at 26/182. The 4-year-old comes from draw 8 with a recent form line of 513757.
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4Liberty Bird48/100
Liberty Bird is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and has failed to trouble the judge in five runs here. She drops back to a trip she has won at before but her recent efforts give little encouragement. The 4-year-old will race held up with high confidence and has one win from 11 starts on standard along with a placed effort from five course visits. Trainer James Evans posts a 9% strike rate at the track while 3 lb claimer Harry Burns has a 12% record here; the yard and rider combine at 0/9. Recent form reads -09P79 from draw 12.
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5Enjoy The Night48/100
Enjoy The Night is a limited horse who has shown only modest form in seven starts and was well held when fifth of six at Southwell last time. She steps up to 7f for the first time today having been placed without winning at the distance on her one previous attempt. The 3-year-old tends to make the running or race prominently and is unproven on standard ground with no previous course form. Seb Spencer's yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 75 runs while 5 lb claimer Shay Farmer is still seeking a winner from seven rides at the track; they combine at 2/29. Recent form is 97-536 from draw 6.
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6Al Suil Eile44/100
Al Suil Eile is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and rarely wins these days. He has placed once from six runs at Wolverhampton without looking dangerous and his recent form is ordinary.
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7Vitalline40/100
Vitalline is a limited performer who has run ten times at Wolverhampton without winning and has shown no recent improvement. He has two wins from 32 starts on standard ground and has won at this trip in the past but his overall record is modest.
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8Twitch40/100
Twitch is a limited performer who has been running to a similar level all year without winning. He has shown some ability on this track and at today's trip, plus he handles the standard surface well enough.
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9Mickey Mongoose39/100
Mickey Mongoose is a limited class performer who has been in and out this year with a recent form line of 581400. He has won twice at this trip but is making his first start at Wolverhampton and the trainer has a 0% strike rate from 35 runs here.
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10Gloriola38/100
Gloriola is a limited performer who has shown some spark on this track, finishing second and third in her two runs here. She drops back from a mile to 7f having failed to win at either trip and remains winless after nine starts.
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11Tortola37/100
Tortola is a limited performer who has been out of the frame in four of his last five starts and is dropping back from 1m2f to a trip at which he has placed but never won. He has shown some ability on standard ground but remains winless after 12 runs.
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12Aplaceinthesun35/100
Aplaceinthesun is a limited performer who has struggled since an early promise, with four efforts at this trip yielding no win or place. He has handled standard going in three runs without placing and makes a first start at Wolverhampton today.
KTB verdict
Elias Escape is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit rating in a race full of exposed and modest types, and while his three runs to date read modestly he remains lightly raced and unexposed for a yard with a strong record at Wolverhampton. The trip is suitable and the strong pace shape should play to his strengths as a hold-up performer. Main dangers are Sanditon, who has already won over course and distance, and Enjoy The Night, who can make the running and represents a trainer in solid form at the track. Nubough and Liberty Bird are others with placed course form who could figure if the leaders fold as expected.
KTB Selection Elias Escape
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Elias Escape | 11/1 | Bet365 |
| Nubough | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Sanditon | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Liberty Bird | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Enjoy The Night | 9/2 | Bet365 |
| Al Suil Eile | 16/1 | 7Bet |
| Vitalline | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Twitch | 3/1 | Bet365 |
| Mickey Mongoose | 18/1 | 7Bet |
| Gloriola | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Tortola | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Aplaceinthesun | 25/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most unexposed in this field?
Elias Escape, with only three runs to date and described as largely unexposed.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
At least two habitual front-runners are present, with Enjoy The Night and Gloriola both tending to make the running or race prominently.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Wolverhampton in this race?
Ollie Sangster with a 16% strike rate from 118 runs, followed by Craig Benton at 17% from a small sample of 12 runs.
Who has the best placed record at the course without a win?
Vitalline has been placed five times from ten runs at Wolverhampton without winning.
Which 3-year-olds in the race are dropping in class or stepping up in trip?
Elias Escape is dropping in class while Enjoy The Night is stepping up to 7f for the first time.
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