5:02 Downpatrick
The 5:02 at Downpatrick is a competitive 18-runner Vianstown Handicap Steeplechase over 2m7f110y on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five principals rated between 63 and 65, underlining how little separates the leading contenders on the numbers. With a lone-leader pace shape expected to deliver an uncontested lead, the ability to close effectively from off the pace will be at a premium in what looks a thorough test.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will bowl along in front with little to no pressure from the rest of the field. The overwhelming majority of runners are held-up types who produce their efforts late, which sets up a race where the leader could prove hard to reel in. The key question is whether any of the closers possess the necessary stamina and finishing kick to bridge the gap on this stiff trip before the line.
The KTB Fit ranking
-
1Western Model65/100
Western Model arrives with a KTB Fit of 65 and is a useful performer boasting solid recent form that includes a win and a fourth last time out. The Andrew Kinirons yard posts a 38% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 2.96 from 16 runs, though the 1/8 record with Conor Smithers is more modest. He has placed on his only visit to the track and acts well on good ground with one win and three places from five starts. The trip is ideal, as he has two wins from four attempts at this distance. Usually held up, he will be produced late in a race where the uncontested lead may make life tough for closers.
-
2Mickey Cohen KTB Selection65/100
Mickey Cohen is rated 65 on KTB Fit and is the selection. A smart performer, he has already won over this course and stays the longer trip well enough to have been placed at it. Recent form is a shade patchy yet the underlying ratings still stack up, while Noel Meade's 23% strike rate at Downpatrick from 405 runs adds confidence. Donagh Meyler operates with a 17% strike rate here and an A/E of 1.25 from 82 rides, above the course average. He has been placed twice from nine starts on good ground and boasts a record of one win from two course visits. Usually held up, his ability to produce a late effort will be tested by the lone leader's uncontested advantage.
-
3Anodandawink64/100
Anodandawink carries a KTB Fit of 64 and is a smart performer who has won his last two starts and therefore arrives in form. He has already placed over this trip and on this ground, though he could only finish second when tried here once before. The Ciaran Murphy stable has a modest 3% strike rate at Downpatrick with an A/E of 0.38 from 34 runs, a clear negative, while Peter Smithers rides with an 11% strike rate and A/E of 1.23 from nine rides. With two wins from three starts on good ground he handles the surface, and his held-up style means he will be relying on the leaders coming back to him in a race with an uncontested front-runner.
-
4Jackson Lamb63/100
Jackson Lamb is rated 63 on KTB Fit and is a smart performer with solid course knowledge after winning here from just two starts. He has been placed on good ground with three wins from 11 starts and his recent form suggests he remains competitive at this level. John McConnell has a 12% strike rate at Downpatrick from 312 runs, but the combination with Eoghan Finegan shows a modest 4% strike rate and A/E of 0.38 from 27 rides for the jockey. The step up in trip is an unknown and his held-up run style will need to overcome the clear advantage held by the expected lone leader.
-
5Littlebiggie63/100
Littlebiggie is another on 63 KTB Fit and is a smart performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He steps up in trip today having won at this distance in the past though his most recent efforts have been modest. Ray Hackett brings a solid 14% strike rate at Downpatrick from 14 runs, yet the 8% record with Liam Quinlan from 142 runs is more ordinary. He has been placed four times from eight starts on good ground without winning and has no course form on record. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be coming from the rear in a contest shaped by an uncontested lead.
-
6Tell Nobody Nothin61/100
Tell Nobody Nothin is a useful performer who has won over this track and placed when tried at today's trip. Recent form has been patchy but Noel Meade's strong record here and Sam Ewing's solid strike-rate at Downpatrick add encouragement, while the ground looks fine on the balance of his career figures.
-
7Driveonwill60/100
Driveonwill is a smart performer with solid course connections having won twice from four runs here. Recent form has been in and out with two wins and two unseats in his last four starts while he steps up in trip today having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous attempt at this distance. Both trainer and jockey have established if modest records at Downpatrick.
-
8Howdoyalikeherhome59/100
Howdoyalikeherhome is a smart performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning. He steps up in trip having been placed once in three runs at this distance and has a solid record on good ground. John McConnell holds a 12% strike rate here from 312 runs while Alex Harvey is operating at 10% from 77 rides.
-
9Ringdufferin58/100
Ringdufferin is a smart performer who has won over this trip and landed a race here. He drops back from 3m1½f having shown some spark when second at this track in May. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Downpatrick.
-
10Gorthill52/100
Gorthill is a useful performer who has won over this trip and scored once from seven starts at Downpatrick. Recent form has been patchy with two pulled-ups in his last three runs and he steps up markedly in distance today. The trainer remains winless from five runs at the track while the jockey operates at a solid 10% strike-rate here.
-
11Wild Mandate51/100
Wild Mandate is a useful performer who has shown some spark on his better days but has been out of form for a while and failed to complete last time. He has only modest course form here with a fifth on his sole visit and first-time headgear is now reached for. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Downpatrick while the jockey operates at 9%.
-
12Malton Groove49/100
Malton Groove is a fair handicapper who has placed without winning at this trip and on this ground. He showed his only visit to Downpatrick with a solid second and has been competitive in recent runs when avoiding falls. The trainer holds a 9% strike rate here from a large sample.
-
13Shantou Show47/100
Shantou Show is a useful performer who has won over this trip and at this track. He drops back from three miles having shown some spark when third here last time, though his overall profile is patchy with two pulled-ups in his last five starts. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at Downpatrick is worth noting while the claiming jockey has had too few rides here to judge.
-
14Walkmethroughit46/100
Walkmethroughit is a fair performer who has struggled since early promise, with recent form reading 77PP-7. He steps up in trip today having failed to make the frame in two previous tries at this distance, while two runs on good ground have also failed to produce a win or place. The trainer has no recorded runs at Downpatrick.
-
15Following Orders46/100
Following Orders is a useful performer who has been out of form lately with a string of poor efforts including a fall and a pulled-up run. He has only a modest course record here with a fifth on his one visit and steps up in trip today having shown little at 2m3f last time. Both trainer and jockey have established but below-average records at Downpatrick.
-
16Schiehallion45/100
Schiehallion is a fair performer who has shown some ability around here without ever winning. He has been out of form for most of this season and his record on good ground is poor. First-time headgear is tried as he drops back in trip today.
-
17Jimli's Cave43/100
Jimli's Cave is a fair handicapper who knows this track, having won here from 11 runs. He has placed three times at today's trip without winning and has been competitive on good ground without scoring. The yard's modest 3% strike rate at Downpatrick is a negative.
-
18Dearg Mor41/100
Dearg Mor is a fair performer who has shown consistent form of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts. He steps up in trip today having been well held in his only previous try at this distance, while the yard's modest record at Downpatrick adds a negative. The jockey has a low strike rate here from a large sample of rides.
KTB verdict
Mickey Cohen is the KTB Selection. A smart performer who has already won over this course, he stays the longer trip well enough to have been placed at it and the underlying ratings still stack up despite recent form being a shade patchy. Noel Meade's strong record at Downpatrick and Donagh Meyler's above-average course strike rate add further layers of confidence to his claims. The main dangers are likely to come from Western Model, who boasts excellent recent form and a trip that perfectly suits, and the in-form Anodandawink, though the latter must overcome his trainer's modest course record.
KTB Selection Mickey Cohen
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:02 UTC, 18 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Western Model | 17/2 | Dragon Bet |
| Mickey Cohen | 7/1 | Bet365 |
| Anodandawink | 10/3 | Dragon Bet |
| Jackson Lamb | 14/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Littlebiggie | 28/1 | Bet365 |
| Tell Nobody Nothin | 12/1 | Bet365 |
| Driveonwill | 5/1 | Bet365 |
| Howdoyalikeherhome | 14/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Ringdufferin | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Gorthill | 25/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Wild Mandate | 22/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Malton Groove | 18/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Shantou Show | 25/1 | BoyleSports |
| Walkmethroughit | 25/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Following Orders | 28/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Schiehallion | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Jimli's Cave | 25/1 | Dragon Bet |
| Dearg Mor | 10/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 5:02 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Downpatrick results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Gorthill is the sole front-runner in the field and is likely to take the uncontested lead given the supplied pace shape.
How many of the principals have previously won at Downpatrick?
Mickey Cohen and Jackson Lamb have both won at Downpatrick.
Which runner is stepping up markedly in distance?
Gorthill is stepping up markedly in distance today.
How many principals are usually held up?
All five principals – Western Model, Mickey Cohen, Anodandawink, Jackson Lamb and Littlebiggie – are usually held up.
Which horse is making its first appearance in first-time headgear?
Both Wild Mandate and Schiehallion are wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies