3:05 Listowel
The Brandon Hotel Handicap Hurdle at Listowel brings together a field of 21 for this 2m2f handicap on good ground. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks pace, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy could prove advantageous. The top five in the KTB Fit rankings are tightly bunched between 58 and 61, underlining the competitive nature of the contest and the likelihood that several with placed form will be in the mix.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of any confirmed front-runner, suggesting the field will go at no more than a steady gallop early on. Most of the principals are held-up types who produce their effort late, though Room For One More is the notable prominent runner who may take a handy position. This sets up a tactical race in which those able to creep into the contest from mid-division without expending too much energy stand to benefit, and the key question is which horse will time its run best off what is likely to be a modest pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Warm In Gorey61/100
Warm In Gorey is a useful performer who has been placed at this trip on five of his seven starts yet has never won over it. His only run at Listowel resulted in an 11th-place finish and the yard's modest 6% strike rate here adds little encouragement. The jockey has a solid 9% record from 11 rides at the track but the horse's overall profile suggests he will find a few too good again. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is set to be a steadily-run affair. He has one win from 18 starts on good ground with nine placed efforts.
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2Paul Collins KTB Selection61/100
Paul Collins is a useful performer who has shown competitive form on good ground, placing twice from seven starts, though he is yet to win at this trip despite one placed effort. He steps up in distance today which asks a fresh question, and his recent form has been patchy with a pulled-up effort and three modest finishes. The yard has a 7% strike rate from 28 runs at Listowel while the horse himself was well beaten on his only previous run here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to time his run well in a race that looks set to be tactical. He is the KTB Selection.
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3Champagne Dawn60/100
Champagne Dawn is a useful performer who has won over today's trip. Recent form is poor and he has never placed from four runs on good ground. The trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Listowel is offset by the jockey's solid 14% record here from 37 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he will be coming from towards the rear in a steadily-run contest. He has no course form on record.
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4Chemdawg59/100
Chemdawg is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after two wins and a second from his last four starts. He is 0-2 at today's shorter trip and has been placed just twice from eight runs on good ground so he needs to prove himself on both counts. The trainer holds a respectable 12% strike rate at Listowel from 34 runs while the jockey's modest 3% strike rate here is well established over 238 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will look to make late headway in what should be a tactical race.
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5Potters Pal58/100
Potters Pal is a useful performer who showed his best form when winning a handicap at Cork in April before pulling up on softer ground at Killarney last time. He drops back in trip to 2m2f today for the first time which poses a fresh question. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 204 runs at Listowel while the jockey is 6% from 65 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will need to be timed perfectly in a steadily-run affair. He has no runs on good ground so remains unproven on the surface.
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6Kazbek56/100
Kazbek is a useful performer who has been out of form this season with a string of pulled-up efforts. He drops back in trip having looked stretched by 3m last time though he has failed to place in his only previous run at this distance. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Listowel though the horse has shown nothing on good ground in six attempts.
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7Deep Warrior54/100
Deep Warrior is a useful sort who showed little in three starts last season. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question. The trainer and jockey both have solid records at Listowel though the small going sample leaves that side unknown.
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8Masego53/100
Masego is a useful performer who ran respectably when fourth over this course and distance on his only previous visit here. He has shown little spark in two starts this season and steps up in trip today having failed to land a blow at 2m1f last time. The trainer holds a solid 11% strike rate at Listowel from a big sample.
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9Blue Reed52/100
Blue Reed is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick with placed efforts in three of his last four starts. He drops back in trip to a distance where he has been competitive without winning, while the good ground is fine as he has placed three times from nine runs on it. The trainer has a modest 3% strike-rate from 36 runs at Listowel and the jockey has no recorded rides here.
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10Glin Road Boy52/100
Glin Road Boy is a useful performer who showed more when runner-up on return at this track last month. He steps up in trip today having already placed at the new distance, though his sole previous run here was poor. The trainer and jockey both have established but modest records at Listowel.
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11Room For One More51/100
Room For One More is a useful performer who has shown steady progress in recent starts with a solid second at this track last time out. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question though he was already stretched at 2m1f. The trainer has a strong 19% strike rate at Listowel from a huge sample of runners. He is the only prominent runner in the field and may race handily.
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12Aboras Mahler49/100
Aboras Mahler is a useful performer who has finished a clear second in both starts this season. He is dropping back in trip today having been well held over slightly further last time, while the course run earlier this year was poor. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Listowel.
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13Granlahan47/100
Granlahan is a fair performer who has been consistent this year without winning, placing four times from six starts at this trip and four times from eight runs on good ground. He arrives here in reasonable order having shown steady placed efforts. The trainer has an 11% strike rate from 141 runs at Listowel while the jockey is 9% from 169 rides here.
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14Installment45/100
Installment is a useful performer on his day but recent form has been patchy with a pulled-up effort and a poor run last time out. He drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on his only previous attempt. Both trainer and jockey have a 0% strike rate at Listowel and he wears first-time headgear.
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15Sidiriya44/100
Sidiriya is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form on good ground and at today's trip. He has course experience but finished well beaten on his only visit to Listowel and the trainer's modest 6% strike rate here offers little encouragement. He steps up in trip today which looks a fair question on his recent efforts.
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16Mr Erwitt43/100
Mr Erwitt is a modest performer with a dismal recent record of pulled-up efforts. The yard has a modest 4% strike rate at Listowel from 203 runs while the 5lb claimer has struck at a strong 22% rate from his nine rides here. Dropping back in trip to an untried 2m2f poses a fresh question.
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17Pixie Hill43/100
Pixie Hill is a fair sort who has shown very little in three starts so far, finishing well beaten on each occasion. The trainer has only four runs at Listowel so the track record is too small to judge while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate from 88 rides here. Stepping up in trip for the first time asks a fresh question of a horse that remains lightly raced overall.
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18Clonbury Court42/100
Clonbury Court is a fair maiden who has failed to complete in three of four starts and showed little spark when last seen. The step up in trip poses a fresh question while both trainer and jockey have modest records at Listowel. With only four runs on the board the overall picture remains tentative.
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19Springboard41/100
Springboard is a fair performer who showed his best form when winning over hurdles at Cork last summer and finishing fourth in a handicap at Galway. He was well below that level on return at Killarney last month and now drops back in trip to one he has never tried. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 47 runs at Listowel while the jockey is 1-33 here.
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20Crypto Crash40/100
Crypto Crash is a fair performer who showed improved form when winning last time out. He steps up in trip today having only tried this distance once before without success and makes his first appearance at Listowel. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 37 runs here while the jockey operates at a 10% strike rate from 202 rides.
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21Lunar Landscape39/100
Lunar Landscape is a fair performer who has shown consistency of late with a second and fourth in his last two starts. He steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question, while this is also his first run at Listowel. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from six runs here and the jockey is 5% from 19 rides.
KTB verdict
Paul Collins is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with competitive form on good ground, he has shown enough placed efforts to suggest he can be effective at this trip once the step up in distance is taken in his stride. His held-up style should suit the steadily-run, tactical nature of the race, and he can time his run to best effect. The main dangers are Chemdawg, who arrives in solid recent form, and Potters Pal, who showed his best form when winning at Cork earlier in the year before a poor run on soft ground. Warm In Gorey and Champagne Dawn also have claims on their best days but may find a few too good once more.
KTB Selection Paul Collins
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 23 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Warm In Gorey | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Paul Collins | 22/1 | Coral |
| Champagne Dawn | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Chemdawg | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Potters Pal | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Kazbek | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Deep Warrior | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Masego | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Blue Reed | 10/1 | Coral |
| Glin Road Boy | 2/1 | Coral |
| Room For One More | 14/1 | BetTom |
| Aboras Mahler | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Granlahan | 9/1 | Coral |
| Installment | 40/1 | BetTom |
| Sidiriya | 10/1 | BetTom |
| Mr Erwitt | 66/1 | William Hill |
| Pixie Hill | 33/1 | BetTom |
| Clonbury Court | 33/1 | Betfred |
| Springboard | 18/1 | BetMGM |
| Crypto Crash | 16/1 | Coral |
| Lunar Landscape | 17/2 | Coral |
This is the narrative read of the 3:05 Listowel. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Listowel racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Listowel results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence, so no one obviously wants the lead and it is likely to be a steadily-run affair where being handy pays.
Which horse is the only prominent runner?
Room For One More usually races handily on or close to the lead.
How many of the principals are usually held up?
Warm In Gorey, Paul Collins, Champagne Dawn, Chemdawg and Potters Pal are all usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Listowel?
W. P. Mullins has a 19% strike rate at Listowel from 754 runs.
Which horses are stepping up in trip today?
Paul Collins, Deep Warrior, Masego, Room For One More, Sidiriya, Pixie Hill, Clonbury Court, Springboard, Crypto Crash and Lunar Landscape are all stepping up in trip.
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