7:00 Kempton (AW)
A competitive Class 6 handicap over 7f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together 14 three-year-olds, most of them modest performers with relatively limited winning form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with five horses rated between 54 and 60, underlining how little separates many of these runners on paper. Several hold-up types feature prominently, which is significant given the strong pace anticipated.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is expected to be strong, and the early gallop could prove testing. This sets up a race that is likely to collapse late, handing the advantage to those delivered from off the pace. The key question is whether any hold-up horse can pick up the pieces effectively once the leaders tire in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Senor Campanaro60/100
Senor Campanaro is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his last two starts but remains winless since his debut success. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip earlier in his career yet his one run here ended in a remote ninth and he has only one effort on standard to slow going. The yard hold a strong 33% strike rate at Kempton but this draw in stall 14 looks far from ideal. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the strong pace materialises as expected. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 3/14 record with an A/E of 2.59.
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2Seeing Stars KTB Selection60/100
Seeing Stars is a modest performer who has won once here from two runs and also scored on standard to slow ground. He has shown inconsistent form this year with a string of placed efforts but no win since the spring. Dropping in class should help, and his record at Kempton reads positively with one win from two starts. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is well placed to take advantage should the strong pace collapse. The yard's modest strike rate at the track is offset by a solid volume of runners, while Luke Morris has a 9% strike rate here from 3382 rides.
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3Royal County Glory57/100
Royal County Glory is a modest performer who has been in and out this year but showed his better side when winning twice over this trip on turf in the summer. He is unproven on standard to slow going and makes his first start at Kempton. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need the race to fall his way if the strong pace materialises. Trainer Jack Jones has a 7% strike rate here from 57 runs while Oisin Murphy is aboard, the pair combining for a 7/23 record with an A/E of 1.14.
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4Because We Can55/100
Because We Can is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability, winning once at this trip from five attempts. Has run just once at Kempton, finishing fifth, while the trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate here from nearly a thousand runs. Recent form has been patchy and the small overall sample leaves some questions unanswered. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is another who could be suited by the anticipated strong pace. Dropping in class is a positive.
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5Cixi54/100
Cixi is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing third and fourth in two runs here. Has been placed on standard to slow going and at today's trip, though without winning, and her recent form has been patchy. Trainer's 9% strike rate from 816 runs at Kempton reflects a yard that keeps plenty of modest sorts on the go. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be on the premises if the leaders go hard early. The trainer and jockey combination is 0/6.
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6Station Bar52/100
Station Bar is a modest performer who has run four times at Kempton without winning, best effort a second over this trip. Placed once from four starts on standard to slow ground and has shown enough to be competitive at this level. The trainer records a 9% strike rate here from 835 runs while the 7 lb claimer is aboard.
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7Black Endeavour50/100
Black Endeavour is a modest performer who has been generally out of form this year with a string of poor efforts after an early win. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having been placed at the trip without winning, while first-time headgear is now tried. Trainer Mark Rimell has a solid 13% strike rate from 107 runs at Kempton, though the horse himself has shown little here in two previous runs.
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8Surgeon Commander50/100
Surgeon Commander is a limited horse who has shown mixed form this year with a recent win over 6f. Steps up to 7f today having won three times at the trip already and looks suited by standard to slow ground with a win from one run on it. Trainer has only four runs at Kempton so too small a sample to judge while this is the colt's first run here. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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9Mojito48/100
Mojito is a modest performer who has shown little spark in three runs here, finishing no better than sixth. He did win over this trip earlier in the year but has weakened quickly on his last two starts and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard’s modest 11% strike rate at the track adds little confidence. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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10Upsomdowns42/100
Upsomdowns is a modest performer who has run four times here without winning or placing, showing his best efforts when finishing fourth on two occasions. Has placed once at today's trip from four attempts but remains winless after seven starts overall. Trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Kempton from a large sample adds little encouragement from the yard's side.
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11Oddjob42/100
Oddjob is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts so far, finishing no better than fourth. He steps up to 7f for the first time today after racing over 6f last time, which asks a fresh question. Ed Walker has a 13% strike rate from 681 runs at Kempton.
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12For Ever Hopefull42/100
For Ever Hopefull is a modest performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts over this trip, finishing a respectable third last time. The yard's modest record at Kempton offers little encouragement and the small sample on this surface leaves going suitability unclear. Stall three looks fine but he still has questions to answer.
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13Credit Forgedd It37/100
Credit Forgedd It is a limited performer who has shown consistency without winning, placing three times at this trip from seven attempts. Has run just once here at Kempton, finishing fourth, and has failed to place in two starts on standard to slow ground. Simon Dow operates at an 8% strike rate from 787 runs at the track while Sean Levey has a solid record here.
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14Barbuda Bay36/100
Barbuda Bay is a limited performer who has shown only modest form in eight runs and was well held when eighth on his sole visit here. He drops back from a mile to a trip at which he has placed once, but the first-time headgear is a sign that connections are running out of ideas. Trainer operates at a 9% strike rate over 507 runs at this track.
KTB verdict
Seeing Stars stands out as the KTB Selection. He has already won here from two runs and scored on standard to slow ground, and his hold-up style looks perfectly suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold. The drop in class is another plus for a horse who has shown enough placed form this year to suggest he can strike again. Main dangers include Senor Campanaro, who is bred to handle the trip and represents a yard in excellent form at the track, and Royal County Glory, who arrives in decent form from turf wins despite his lack of experience on the surface. Cixi and Because We Can add further depth to what looks an open race.
KTB Selection Seeing Stars
This is the narrative read of the 7:00 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Kempton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why does the pace shape favour hold-up horses?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace is likely with two or more habitual front-runners, which could cause the leaders to collapse late and play into the hands of those racing from off the pace.
How many times has Seeing Stars won at Kempton?
Seeing Stars has won once here from two runs.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Kempton in this field?
David Killahena & Graeme McPherson have a 33% strike rate at Kempton from nine runs.
Which horses are trying headgear for the first time?
Black Endeavour, Mojito and Barbuda Bay are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which runner is dropping in class from a higher level?
Seeing Stars, Because We Can, Station Bar, Mojito, Oddjob, For Ever Hopefull and Barbuda Bay are all dropping in class.
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