5:31 Chepstow
This Class 5 mares' handicap hurdle at Chepstow over 2m16y on good to soft ground brings together an 11-runner field where the KTB Fit ratings point to a competitive but open contest. The top-rated horse on KTB numbers carries an OR of 102 and is the clear pick at a Fit score of 65, while the next four principals sit in a narrow band between 54 and 55, suggesting little between them on pure ability. With no obvious front-runner in the race and most runners tending to be held up, the KTB numbers underline that this steadily-run, tactical affair will place a premium on timing and positioning.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical race in which being handy should pay dividends. With the majority of the field, including all five principals, tending to race held up or in mid-division, the early gallop is likely to be modest and the race could develop into a sprint for the line from the home turn. The key question is whether the first-time headgear on the selection can sharpen him sufficiently to produce his effort at the right moment in a race where late closers will be queuing up.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Eremenko KTB Selection65/100
Eremenko is a useful performer who has already placed here over this trip and showed he stays the distance when winning at it last year. Recent form has been patchy with a fall and a pulled-up effort mixed in, while he has done little on good-to-soft ground so far. First-time headgear is now fitted and the yard has a solid record at the track. Donald McCain operates at a 13% strike rate at Chepstow from 102 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while Theo Gillard has a 10% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.5 from 10 rides. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 10% strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.82. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Eremenko is the KTB selection in a race where his course form and the addition of headgear could prove decisive.
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2Clear Sky55/100
Clear Sky is a useful performer on the balance of his ratings and race history. He has shown little spark in two starts this year yet drops back to 2m having failed to land a blow at the trip in four previous runs. The yard and jockey both hold solid records at Chepstow. Jeremy Scott has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.96 from 211 runs, while Lorcan Williams posts a 15% strike rate with an A/E of 1.08 from 136 rides. The trainer and jockey combination records a 14% strike rate with an A/E of 0.99. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Clear Sky remains a threat if he can rediscover his best form on this ground.
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3Adba55/100
Adba is a useful performer on the balance of her ratings and race history, with a recent win at this trip from three attempts. She has no experience of good to soft ground and makes her first visit to Chepstow. The trainer holds a 17% strike rate here from six runs while the jockey is operating at 8% from 60 rides. Faye Bramley and Harry Kimber combine at an 11% strike rate overall. Typically settling in midfield, Adba drops in class and could be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race if the ground does not prove against her.
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4Siorai54/100
Siorai is a useful performer who arrives in solid nick after two placed efforts this spring. He has shown enough at this trip to suggest the distance is within range though he is unproven on good to soft ground and has never run here before. Harry Derham has a good 24% strike rate at Chepstow with an A/E of 1.06 from 38 runs while Paul O'Brien is operating at 10% from 97 rides at the track. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 23% strike rate with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up and producing his effort late, Siorai is respected on his recent placed form.
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5Sheezer Diva54/100
Sheezer Diva is a useful performer who showed promise in bumpers and has placed once over this trip. The yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Chepstow from a large sample while Harry Skelton matches that with 13% from his rides here. Lightly raced with only three career starts and the going remains an unknown. Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton combine at a 22% strike rate with an A/E of 0.90. Usually held up and producing her effort late on limited evidence, Sheezer Diva drops in class and could improve further given her light profile.
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6Burning Embers52/100
Burning Embers is a useful performer who has yet to translate that ability into a win. Three runs at this trip have produced no success and a sixth here on his only previous visit to Chepstow adds little encouragement. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate at the track from a large sample while the jockey's A/E of 1.35 from limited rides is respectable. Usually held up, he drops in class.
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7Dalcassian Girl51/100
Dalcassian Girl is a fair mare who showed her best effort when second on her final start last season. She has a poor run on her only previous visit to Chepstow and is now dropping back in trip having failed to make an impact in two runs at this distance before. The trainer holds a solid 19% strike rate here while the jockey records an 11% strike rate at the track. Usually held up, she drops in class.
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8Getarose48/100
Getarose has shown fair form and arrives in decent nick after a recent win at this trip. The switch to Chepstow is an unknown and the one run on good to soft ground brought no reward. Trainer and jockey both have established records here that sit around the course average. Usually held up, she represents connections with a 20% strike rate together.
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9Reel Orange46/100
Reel Orange is a useful performer who arrives in solid form having won at Taunton in January before finishing second at Wincanton last time. Drops back to 2m having been placed three times at the trip without winning, and has handled good to soft ground in the past though without scoring on it. Trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Chepstow while the jockey fares a little better with 12%. Usually held up.
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10Georgia's Charm45/100
Georgia's Charm is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning lately, finishing fifth on both starts this year. Drops back from 2m4f to a trip where she has placed twice from six attempts, and she has shown she can be competitive on good to soft ground. Trainer holds a solid 12% strike rate here while the claiming jockey has an above-average 17% record from a small sample. Usually held up.
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11Freddiemissmolli39/100
Freddiemissmolli is a fair performer who has shown some ability at this trip, finishing placed once in four attempts. Dropping back from 2m4f should suit and the course connections are solid. Trainer records a 14% strike-rate here from seven runners while the jockey operates at 6% from a large sample of rides. Usually held up.
KTB verdict
Eremenko stands out as the KTB selection. He has already placed over this course and distance, stays the trip, and now receives first-time headgear in a race where his held-up style could be ideally suited to the expected steady pace. The yard's record at Chepstow adds further confidence. His main dangers are Clear Sky, who brings solid Chepstow figures from yard and rider, and Adba, who arrives on the back of a recent win at the trip despite questions about the ground and course. Siorai and Sheezer Diva complete the principals and cannot be ruled out in a race that could be decided by timing in the straight.
KTB Selection Eremenko
This is the narrative read of the 5:31 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Chepstow results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Chepstow racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear significant for Eremenko?
Eremenko's recent form has been patchy with a fall and a pulled-up effort, and the first-time headgear is now fitted in a bid to sharpen him up.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race shape?
With no one obviously wanting the lead, the race is likely to be a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
What are the ground concerns for the leading contenders?
Eremenko has done little on good-to-soft ground so far, Clear Sky has had two runs on it without placing, Adba is unproven on it, Siorai is unproven on it, and Sheezer Diva is unproven on good to soft.
Which trainer has the strongest record at Chepstow among the principals?
Harry Derham has a 24% strike rate at Chepstow from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.06.
Why is Eremenko the KTB selection ahead of Clear Sky and Adba who share the same Fit score as each other?
Eremenko has a higher KTB Fit score of 65 compared to the 55 recorded by both Clear Sky and Adba, plus his course placing over this trip.
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