3:55 Doncaster
A competitive Class 2 handicap over 1m2f43y on heavy ground at Doncaster features a field of 16, with the KTB Fit Scores tightly bunched at the top end. The principals are headed by Devil's Peak on a mark of 91, closely followed by high-rated performers such as Mondo Man (OR 100) and Castlemont (OR 98). With several runners dropping back in trip and others unproven on the surface, the race asks pertinent questions about trip, ground and the effect of first-time headgear on a number of contenders.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated given the presence of at least two habitual front-runners in Castlemont and Mondo Man, with others such as Ultrasoul, Galyx, Principality, City of Delight, Have Secret and Spioradalta all likely to race prominently or on the pace. This shape suggests the leaders could go hard early and the pace may collapse in the latter stages, which would play into the hands of hold-up performers. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate and sustain their effort on this testing ground, or if the race will fall apart late to suit those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Devil's Peak KTB Selection62/100
Devil's Peak is a useful performer who won here on his only previous visit to Doncaster. He now drops back from 1m4f to a trip at which he has been twice beaten, while the heavy ground is another unknown as he has never raced on it. First-time headgear is now applied. The three-year-old is held up, usually producing his effort late, which could be an advantage given the expected strong pace. Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 171 runs and jockey Benoit de la Sayette operates at 22% from 49 rides here, both above their general figures.
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2Mondo Man61/100
Mondo Man is a useful sort who has been below form on his last two starts and now drops back in trip from 1m4f. He is 0-1 at this distance and has been placed once from two runs on heavy ground. This represents his first run at Doncaster for the Moores and Tom Queally who both have no recorded wins at the track. The five-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace, which fits the expected strong pace shape. He arrives off an official rating of 100.
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3Castlemont59/100
Castlemont is a useful performer who has won two of his three starts including at this trip. He drops back from 1m4f today with first-time headgear added and boasts a strong pedigree as full brother to Group 1 winner Bay Bridge. The dam has had four other runners, three of them winners. Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 252 runs and jockey William Buick operates at 21% from 526 rides here. The three-year-old tends to make the running or race on the pace and is dropping in class.
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4Ultrasoul59/100
Ultrasoul is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after winning on his latest start and boasting a solid recent record of 311-10. He is proven on heavy ground from a placed effort and has won at today's trip from a single attempt, though he drops back in distance from 1m3f. The yard has a 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 404 runs, above their 19% elsewhere, while jockey Ray Dawson operates at a 12% strike rate here from 91 rides. The four-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
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5Mustazeed55/100
Mustazeed is a fair handicapper who has won once from five runs at Doncaster and holds a solid record on heavy ground with one win and three places from four starts. He has also won six times from 29 runs at this trip and arrives off an official rating of 89. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from 25 runs, in line with his record elsewhere. The eight-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late, stepping up in class.
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6Shafdar55/100
Shafdar is a useful performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a fourth last time out. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance from just two attempts, though he remains unproven on heavy ground. The trainer and jockey both operate at 11% and 10% strike rates at Doncaster respectively, both in line with their records elsewhere.
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7Bunyola Bay55/100
Bunyola Bay is a useful performer who won here on debut and has an official rating of 97 to his name. Recent form has been patchy with two heavy defeats after the initial promise, and he has yet to show anything at this trip. Half-brother to Silver Ghost who won twice from 18 runs, with the dam having had three other runners that were all winners. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 12-13% strike rate at Doncaster which sits in line with their records elsewhere.
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8Galyx54/100
Galyx is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a win and a fourth in his last two starts. He has won both starts on heavy ground and two from six at this trip, though he makes his first appearance at Doncaster. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here with 15% and 12% strike rates respectively.
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9Principality54/100
Principality is a useful performer who has run twice here without placing. He is 1 from 1 on heavy ground and steps up in trip today for the first time which asks a fresh question. Trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level at Doncaster.
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10Pearl Eye52/100
Pearl Eye is a fair performer who has won here from two runs and also won on heavy ground from two attempts. He has scored at today's trip and arrives in decent nick judged on his latest efforts. The yard's 9% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere.
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11A Major Payne52/100
A Major Payne is a fair performer who arrives in solid form with three wins from his last six starts and an official rating of 89. He has won three times at this trip from nine attempts and has been competitive on heavy ground. The trainer and jockey both hold strike rates at Doncaster that sit in line with their records elsewhere.
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12City of Delight47/100
City of Delight is a fair performer who has won once from two runs at Doncaster and has scored six times from 13 starts at this trip. He arrives in reasonable form with a recent string of placed efforts and holds an official rating of 89. The trainer's 6% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey matches his 14% course figure.
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13Janey Mackers47/100
Janey Mackers is a useful performer who has already won once at Doncaster from two starts and has scored at today's trip. She showed fair form when third on reappearance last time but is drawn widest of all in stall 16 of 16 and has failed to place in her only run on heavy ground. The trainer's 6% strike rate here from 80 runs is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 12% from 227 rides is also in line with his figures at other tracks.
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14Have Secret46/100
Have Secret is a fair horse who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has placed on heavy ground and won at this trip but his recent record is modest and the big-field draw adds another unknown. Trainer and jockey records at the track are both in line with their overall figures.
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15Spioradalta44/100
Spioradalta is a fair 6-year-old who has won six times at today's trip from 17 attempts and holds an official rating of 89 after a mixed recent form of 106208. He has been well held in both runs at Doncaster and showed little on his only heavy-ground start. The trainer's 6% strike rate at the track is in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 8% here sits below his overall figure.
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16Wahdan44/100
Wahdan is a fair handicapper who has won once in 11 starts at this trip and arrives off the back of a solid recent sequence that includes a 7th of 12 last time. He has no previous experience at Doncaster and is 0-1 on heavy ground so both track and conditions pose fresh questions. Trainer Tim Easterby has a 7% strike rate here from 1,588 runs which is below his 10% at other courses while jockey David Allan records an 8% strike rate from 604 rides at the track which is also below his 10% elsewhere.
KTB verdict
Devil's Peak is the KTB Selection. A useful performer who won here on his only previous visit to Doncaster, he is held up and could be suited by the strong pace that is likely to collapse late. The first-time headgear may help him produce his best, and the yard and jockey both have strong records at the track. His main dangers include the front-running pair Castlemont and Mondo Man, along with Ultrasoul who arrives in decent nick and is proven on heavy ground.
KTB Selection Devil's Peak
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:04am, 24 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Devil's Peak | 14/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Mondo Man | 10/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Castlemont | 4/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Ultrasoul | 8/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Mustazeed | 33/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Shafdar | 6/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Bunyola Bay | 35/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Galyx | 13/2 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Principality | 9/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Pearl Eye | 12/1 | Midnite, 1:04am |
| A Major Payne | 9/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| City of Delight | 14/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
| Janey Mackers | 10/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Have Secret | 14/1 | Bet365, 1:04am |
| Spioradalta | 50/1 | Bet Victor, 1:04am |
| Wahdan | 50/1 | 7Bet, 1:04am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Doncaster racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which runners are proven on heavy ground?
Mondo Man has been placed once from two runs on heavy, Ultrasoul has placed once from one run on heavy, Mustazeed has one win and three places from four starts on heavy, Galyx has two wins from two on heavy, Principality is one from one on heavy, Pearl Eye has one win from two on heavy, A Major Payne has placed once from one on heavy and Have Secret has placed once from one on heavy.
How many runners have course form at Doncaster?
Devil's Peak has won from one run here, Bunyola Bay has won from two runs here, Mustazeed has won from five runs here, Pearl Eye has won from two runs here, City of Delight has won from two runs here, Janey Mackers has won from two runs here and Have Secret has placed from four runs here without winning.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Devil's Peak and Castlemont are both wearing first-time headgear.
Who are the main front-runners in the race?
Castlemont and Mondo Man both tend to make the running or race on the pace, with Ultrasoul, Galyx, Principality, City of Delight, Have Secret and Spioradalta also likely to race prominently.
Which horses are dropping back in trip from further than 1m2f?
Devil's Peak drops back from 1m4f, Mondo Man drops back from 1m4f, Castlemont drops back from 1m4f and Ultrasoul drops back from 1m3f.
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