4:25 Galway
A 21-runner Galway Races Handicap over 1m3f180y on heavy ground looks a competitive affair at this level. The official ratings are tightly bunched between 40 and 62, with every runner carrying the tag of limited performer according to the KTB numbers. The KTB Fit Scores top out at 57 for the selection Ellaat, with the next four principals closely grouped between 56 and 50, suggesting a race where small margins and how the race is run could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With a genuinely-run pace shape and high confidence, a front-runner is expected to be pressed by several handy types including Pure Granite, Metamorpheus, You Make Me Smile, Starting Monday, Sands Castle, Limestone Red and Chant d'Or. This sets up a fair test that should see the prominent runners come under pressure from halfway, with the held-up types such as Ellaat, Duke Of Leggagh, Calamint, Mapa, Tintinabulla, The Rock Factor, Inver Bay, Omissions, Duleek Street and Premier Princess looking to pick up the pieces late. The key question is whether the pace collapses or holds up sufficiently for the closers to get there in time on this testing surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Ellaat KTB Selection57/100
Ellaat is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well down the field in both runs at this track. He drops back from 2m1f to a trip he has won at twice from eight attempts, and his heavy-ground record reads a respectable 2-7. Ian O'Connor has a 17% strike rate at Galway from 12 runs while Gearoid Brouder's record at the course is not supplied. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be looking to come from off the pace in a race that should be run at a genuine gallop. Rated 52, he tops the KTB Fit Scores at 57 and is the selection.
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2Metamorpheus56/100
Metamorpheus is a limited horse who has placed here without winning in four runs at Galway. He drops back in trip today having been placed once in four starts at this distance and holds an official rating of 57. Trainer Andrew McNamara has a 2% strike rate at Galway from 52 runs in line with their record elsewhere while the 7lb claimer Adam Browne-Souza has no established record at the track. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent in a genuinely-run contest. His recent form of 35-143 suggests he retains some ability on heavy ground where he has a 1-4 record.
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3You Make Me Smile52/100
You Make Me Smile is a limited horse who has won once in two runs at Galway. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip he has won over before and has recorded a placed effort on heavy ground from five attempts. The trainer's 6% strike rate here is in line with his overall record. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be to the fore in what is set to be a genuine pace. Rated 55, his recent form of -73285 shows he can be competitive at this level when things fall right.
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4Starting Monday51/100
Starting Monday is a limited performer who has won once from six runs at Galway and arrives in reasonable form after a second and a third on his last two starts. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance on his only previous attempt. Trainer Gillian Scott records a 5% strike rate at the track from 22 runs which is in line with their record elsewhere. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with Nicola Burns aboard, he should be involved early. His recent form of -01523 underlines that he is one of the more consistent members of the field.
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5Duke Of Leggagh50/100
Duke Of Leggagh is a limited performer who has won once from six runs at Galway and holds a solid record on heavy ground with three wins from nine starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over further and arrives in poor recent form with a string of lesser efforts. The trainer's 6% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be hoping the genuine pace collapses in front. Rated 58, his heavy-ground record of 3-9 makes him of interest on the surface.
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6Dark Summit47/100
Dark Summit is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his last three starts without managing to get his head in front. He has run only once at Galway, finishing eighth, while the trainer's 3% strike rate here from 128 runs sits in line with his record elsewhere. Steps up in trip on heavy ground today having failed to win or place in two previous tries on that surface, so this is very much an unknown.
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7Sands Castle47/100
Sands Castle is a limited performer who has struggled for consistency this year with a string of modest efforts. He steps up in trip for the first time in first-time headgear having shown little on heavy ground in two previous attempts. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate at Galway from 25 runs which is in line with his record elsewhere.
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8Calamint46/100
Calamint is a limited performer who has been placed on heavy ground and at today's trip. He drops back from 2m having shown bits of form this year but remains winless in 21 starts. The trainer's 8% strike rate at Galway is in line with his record elsewhere while this is the horse's first run at the track.
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9Mapa46/100
Mapa is a limited horse who has been out of form for some time and finished 10th on his only previous run here. He has shown a bit of ability at this trip but the heavy ground is unproven beyond a single run. Trainer records a 10% strike rate at Galway from 77 runs, in line with their overall figure.
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10Tintinabulla46/100
Tintinabulla is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts and remains on a basement mark. Dropping back in trip today after a placed effort at this distance earlier in the year offers some hope but the overall form remains poor. Trainer records a 10% strike rate at Galway from 77 runs in line with their record elsewhere. Half-sister to Tindrum (1 win from 17 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 2 of them winners.
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11The Rock Factor45/100
The Rock Factor is a limited performer who has struggled in four starts this year after a debut eighth. He steps up markedly in trip today having only raced at a mile so far, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer Emmet Mullins operates at a 14% strike rate at Galway from 150 runs, in line with his record elsewhere. Half-brother to Zoulette (1 win from 7 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 1 of them a winner.
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12Pure Granite44/100
Pure Granite is a limited performer who showed a bit more when winning a 1m2½f handicap on his penultimate start before a lesser effort last time. He steps up in trip today with the trip a fresh question, while the heavy ground is also unproven. Trainer John M Harney has no recorded runs at Galway and jockey Jimmy Dalton has no recorded rides at the track.
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13Surrey Force43/100
Surrey Force is a limited horse who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He drops back in trip from 2m1f having been placed without winning at this distance previously. The trainer's 10% strike rate at Galway is in line with their record elsewhere.
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14Limestone Red41/100
Limestone Red is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place twice at today's trip from just two attempts. He has never won on heavy ground from a single try and makes his first start at Galway. The trainer's 5% strike rate here from 38 runs sits in line with their record elsewhere.
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15Sweetie Too41/100
Sweetie Too is a limited performer who has shown very little in six starts and was only fifth of six when tried here over a shorter trip. She steps up in distance today which asks a fresh question while the yard's 7% strike rate at Galway is in line with their record elsewhere. The dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.
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16Chant d'Or40/100
Chant d'Or is a limited performer who has shown very little in six career runs and arrives here with a recent form line of 00-705. He has failed to trouble the judge in two starts at this trip and first-time headgear is now fitted. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from six runs at Galway. Half-brother to Bashful Boy (8 wins from 75 runs). The dam has had 4 other runners, 2 of them winners.
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17Inver Bay38/100
Inver Bay is a limited performer who showed a bit when winning at this trip last time. He has never run on heavy ground and makes his first appearance at Galway today. The trainer's 4% strike rate here from 54 runs is in line with his record at other courses.
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18Omissions38/100
Omissions is a limited performer on the evidence of three modest efforts this year after a poor debut. The yard's 8% strike rate at Galway is in line with their record elsewhere. Steps up in trip today while drawn 12 of 18.
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19Duleek Street34/100
Duleek Street is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and finished well beaten on his only previous run at this track. The trainer's 4% strike rate at Galway is in line with their record elsewhere while the 7lb claimer has no established record at the course. Unproven on heavy ground and drawn in stall 14 of 18.
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20The Monday Club34/100
The Monday Club is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date. He steps up in trip today wearing first-time headgear. Trainer at Galway operates at a 7% strike rate from 30 runs, in line with his record elsewhere.
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21Premier Princess32/100
Premier Princess has shown little in seven runs this year and remains a limited performer on her official rating of 47. She drops back in trip today having failed to make an impact at this distance on her one previous attempt. The yard records a 6% strike rate at Galway from 372 runs which is in line with their overall record. Half-sister to Absolutely So, a Group 3 winner (7 wins from 29 runs). The dam has had 8 other runners, 2 of them winners.
KTB verdict
Ellaat is the KTB Selection at the head of the Fit Scores. A limited performer who has been out of form for some time, he drops back to a trip he has won at twice and boasts a respectable heavy-ground record of 2-7. Usually held up, he can benefit if the prominent runners go hard in a genuinely-run race. The main dangers are Metamorpheus, who has placed at the track, You Make Me Smile who has won here, Starting Monday who arrives in reasonable form, and Duke Of Leggagh with his strong heavy-ground profile.
KTB Selection Ellaat
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 1:02am, 27 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Ellaat | 18/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Metamorpheus | 13/2 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| You Make Me Smile | 9/1 | BetTom, 12:12am |
| Starting Monday | 15/2 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Duke Of Leggagh | 18/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Dark Summit | 9/2 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Sands Castle | 12/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Calamint | 11/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Mapa | 28/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Tintinabulla | 7/1 | Bet Victor, 12:12am |
| The Rock Factor | 12/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Pure Granite | 15/2 | Coral, 12:14am |
| Surrey Force | 28/1 | Bet Victor, 12:12am |
| Limestone Red | 17/2 | BetTom, 12:12am |
| Sweetie Too | 14/1 | William Hill, 12:17am |
| Chant d'Or | 14/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Inver Bay | 11/2 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Omissions | 33/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Duleek Street | 40/1 | BoyleSports, 12:02am |
| The Monday Club | 18/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
| Premier Princess | 28/1 | LiveScore Bet, 1:02am |
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Galway. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Galway racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Galway results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Galway racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest heavy ground record in the field?
Duke Of Leggagh holds a solid record on heavy ground with three wins from nine starts.
How many runners have previously won at Galway?
You Make Me Smile has won here once in two runs, Starting Monday has won once from six runs, and Duke Of Leggagh has won once from six runs at the track.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Galway among those with significant runners?
Emmet Mullins operates at a 14% strike rate at Galway from 150 runs.
Which prominent runners are likely to contest the lead early?
Pure Granite tends to make the running or race on the pace, while Metamorpheus, You Make Me Smile, Starting Monday, Sands Castle, Limestone Red and Chant d'Or usually race handily on or close to the lead.
What is the trip and ground profile for the selection Ellaat?
Ellaat drops back from 2m1f to a trip he has won at twice from eight attempts, and his heavy-ground record reads a respectable 2-7.
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