3:43 Ascot
This Class 2 Lavazza Handicap Hurdle over 1m7f157y at Ascot on good ground features a competitive field of 16, with several high-class performers stepping up in class or returning to the track where some have previous experience. The KTB Fit ratings cluster tightly at the top, headed by two horses on 76, underlining how little separates the principals on the numbers. With strong pace anticipated, the race is likely to place a premium on stamina and positioning in the later stages.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a strong gallop with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Nap Hand and Gower Prince, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. Several others, notably Indemnity, Messerschmitt, Rightsotom, Morning Mayhem, Fasol, Brendas Asking and Moveit Like Minnie, like to race handily or prominently, which should ensure the tempo stays honest throughout. This strong pace could cause the leaders to wilt late on, posing the key question of whether any hold-up performers, such as Trustintimes and Emerald Time, can time their challenge to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Williethebuilder KTB Selection76/100
Williethebuilder is a high-class performer who showed he still has plenty left when winning last time out. Four wins from 14 starts at today's trip is a clear positive yet he was pulled up on his only previous run at Ascot. The 7-year-old carries an official rating of 140 and arrives with recent form figures of 1407-1. Christian Williams records a 9% strike rate at Ascot from 23 runs in line with his overall figure while the 3 lb claimer Toby McCain-Mitchell has a 43% strike rate at the track from seven rides. He has won four times from 11 starts on good ground and typically settles in midfield. Stepping up in class, he is the KTB selection.
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2Trustintimes76/100
Trustintimes is a high-class performer who won here on his only previous visit and brings a strong recent record with four wins from five starts on good ground. The 5-year-old steps up markedly in trip today having last run over a mile but he has already won four times at this distance. He carries an official rating of 127 and his recent form figures read 11120-. Harry Fry has a 23% strike rate at Ascot from 135 runs while Bryan Carver has a 10% strike rate at the track from 31 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he was successful over course and distance on his sole visit and looks sure to relish the strong pace.
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3Indemnity74/100
Indemnity is a high-class performer who has placed on his only previous run at Ascot and holds a strong official rating of 136. The 6-year-old has won three times from eight starts at today's trip and shows five wins from eleven runs on good ground. Recent form figures are 41-026 and he ran second here on his only visit. Emma Lavelle records a 10% strike rate at Ascot from 227 runs in line with her record elsewhere while Charlie Todd has an 18% strike rate at the track from 11 rides. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he is likely to be prominent in a race with a strong pace.
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4Messerschmitt72/100
Messerschmitt is a high-class performer on his day with an official rating of 130 and consistent placed efforts at this trip. The 5-year-old drops back from 2m while having placed once in five starts at today's distance and twice in seven on good ground. Recent form figures read 80493- and this is his first run at Ascot. Ben Pauling records a 17% strike rate at the track from 119 runs in line with his overall figure while Kielan Woods has a 14% strike rate at Ascot from 56 rides. Usually races handily on or close to the lead, he should be involved in the early fractions.
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5Nap Hand71/100
Nap Hand is a high-class performer with a solid recent record of two wins and two seconds from his last four starts. The 6-year-old has won twice at today's trip from ten attempts and holds a respectable record on good ground with four wins from sixteen runs. Recent form figures are -22141 and this is his first run at Ascot. Chris Gordon records an 8% strike rate at the track from 120 runs in line with his record elsewhere while Freddie Gordon has a 26% strike rate at Ascot from 19 rides. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is one of those who will ensure the strong gallop materialises.
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6Hamlet's Night68/100
Hamlet's Night is a high-class performer with a lofty official rating of 130 and a solid record that includes a win at today's trip from five attempts. He drops back from 2m1f having shown modest recent form of 05-006, though the yard's 9% strike rate at Ascot from 54 runs sits in line with their record elsewhere. He goes well on good ground with two wins and six places from 11 starts, but this is his first run at the track.
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7Emerald Time67/100
Emerald Time is a smart performer who arrives in solid form with three wins from his last six starts. He has two wins from seven runs on good ground and has already won twice at today's trip though he steps back from 2m2½f. The trainer has no recorded runs at Ascot while the jockey also has no recorded rides here.
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8Gibbs Island66/100
Gibbs Island is a high-class performer with a solid career record that includes two wins from six starts at this trip. He has only one win from nine runs on good ground but has placed on it twice, while the yard's 15% strike rate at Ascot is in line with their record elsewhere. He makes his first appearance here today from an official rating of 131.
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9Rightsotom64/100
Rightsotom is a high-class performer on his day but has been below form this season and ran no sort of race at this track on his most recent start. He has shown ability at today's trip without winning and the return to shorter could suit, while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The yard's 25% strike rate at Ascot is above their record elsewhere.
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10Morning Mayhem60/100
Morning Mayhem is a high-class performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins this year. He has won three times from nine starts at today's trip but drops back from 2m4f, while his record on good ground reads two wins from nine runs. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from five runs at Ascot.
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11Fasol58/100
Fasol is a smart performer who has placed twice from three runs at Ascot without winning. He drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance on four of seven starts, while three wins from 13 runs on good ground show he handles the surface. First-time headgear is now applied.
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12Brendas Asking57/100
Brendas Asking is a smart performer who has won three times at today's trip from 11 attempts and brings solid recent form with two victories in his last three starts. He has shown only modest form on this track from one run and the yard's small sample at Ascot offers little guidance. He goes well on good ground with two wins and three places from eight starts.
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13Zillow57/100
Zillow is a smart performer who has won twice at today's trip from eight attempts. He has struggled this year though with a recent form line of 0-7P05 and shown no win or place from four runs on good ground. Trainer has only four runs at Ascot which is too small a sample to judge.
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14Moveit Like Minnie56/100
Moveit Like Minnie is a smart performer who has been a regular at this track without winning, finishing placed on three of his last five visits. He arrives in solid form after a recent second and boasts a good record at today's trip. The yard's modest 5% strike rate at Ascot is in line with their record elsewhere.
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15Parchment53/100
Parchment is a smart performer who showed that level in his two starts last year, winning on debut before finishing a solid fourth in a stronger race. The 4-year-old drops back in trip today having last run over 2m3f and has already tried this distance once without success. The dam has had one other runner, not a winner. The yard has a 16% strike rate at Ascot from 263 runs in line with their record elsewhere.
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16Gower Prince49/100
Gower Prince is a smart performer who arrives in strong recent form with three wins from his last five starts. He has won at today's trip and handles good ground, though his record at Ascot is limited to a first appearance today. The yard's 4% strike rate at the track is in line with their record elsewhere.
KTB verdict
Williethebuilder is the KTB selection. A high-class performer who showed he still has plenty left when winning last time out, he brings four wins from 14 starts at this trip and the strong pace should suit his mid-division run style as those up front come back to him. The 3 lb claimer and yard's record at Ascot are not ideal, but he remains the one to beat on the supplied numbers. Main dangers are Trustintimes, who won here on his only visit and loves good ground, Indemnity who has placed at the track, and the prominent runners Messerschmitt and Nap Hand who could be ideally placed if the pace collapses late.
KTB Selection Williethebuilder
Early prices
The best price per runner across the bookmakers we track, each as first seen (UK time). Every runner had a price by 12:03am, 31 Oct. Prices move — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Early price | Bookmaker, time |
|---|---|---|
| Williethebuilder | 8/1 | Midnite, 12:03am |
| Trustintimes | 3/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Indemnity | 22/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Messerschmitt | 8/1 | Bet Victor, 12:03am |
| Nap Hand | 9/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Hamlet's Night | 22/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Emerald Time | 22/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Gibbs Island | 18/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Rightsotom | 22/1 | Midnite, 12:03am |
| Morning Mayhem | 14/1 | 7Bet, 12:03am |
| Fasol | 14/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Brendas Asking | 16/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Zillow | 40/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Moveit Like Minnie | 10/1 | Bet365, 12:03am |
| Parchment | 11/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
| Gower Prince | 14/1 | William Hill, 12:03am |
This is the narrative read of the 3:43 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ascot results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Ascot racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
Trustintimes won here on his only previous visit.
How many front-runners are there to ensure the strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners including Nap Hand and Gower Prince.
Which horse is making its first appearance at Ascot with first-time headgear?
Rightsotom, who ran no sort of race at this track on his most recent start.
What is the family line for Parchment?
The dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.
Which runner has the best recent strike rate at Ascot for its jockey?
Williethebuilder's jockey Toby McCain-Mitchell has a 43% strike rate at Ascot from seven rides.
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