What is Jason Watson's strike rate?

Jason Watson has won 642 of 5,172 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Jason Watson do best at?

Brighton by strike rate: 52 wins from 253 rides (20.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Which yard does Jason Watson ride most for?

David O'Meara, with 827 rides since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 90 (10.9%).

Is Jason Watson in form?

Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 12 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.

What is Jason Watson's Fair A/E?

1.01, from 5,133 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Jockey profile

Jason Watson

5,172 rides in the lifetime window · 2,834 individual horses

As at 14 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last ride 7 days ago 100% of rides on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2017→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

642–5,172

Wins / Runs

12.4%

Strike rate

n=5,172

1,673 (32%)

Placed

1.01

Fair A/E

n=5,133 · 0.87 incl. margin

−846.41

£1 level stake

n=5,172 at SP · −16.4%

£10.8m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

11.9%

KTB Rider Profile

Rides around 270 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 12% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.01). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 17% (585 rides).

Deterministic profile computed from 5,172 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 14 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jul–Aug 34.2% when favourite David O'Meara: 10.9% from 827 LTO winners: 17.4% Claiming: 15.8% Rides the favourite in 12% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Brighton (20.6%, n=253) and Newmarket (20.5%, n=83) — all clear of the rider's 12.4% baseline. It is weakest at Windsor (5.7% over 193 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 17.4% (n=585, Fair A/E 1.01), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.6% (n=591, Fair A/E 0.98). The market has consistently overbet in Group and Graded company the record: 7.6% strike, Fair A/E 0.85 and −34.68 to a £1 stake over 236 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. David O'Meara supplies 16% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (10.9%, A/E 0.93). The rider also reads well on Firm going (27.5%, n=40) and off a 0-7-day break (20.5%, n=264). 18 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot (Oct 2025, £655,709). Seasonally, the rider fires Jul–Aug.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Riding patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 12.4% baseline

First ride on the horse · first captured pairing

11.1%−1.3

n=2,834 · A/E 0.96 · £1 −687.20

Last-time-out winners · previous run was a win

17.4%+5.0

n=585 · A/E 1.01 · £1 −13.91

Fresh horses · 61+ days off

11.4%−1.0

n=720 · A/E 1.06 · £1 −49.56

When favourite

34.2%

n=612 · A/E 1.08 · £1 −46.16

Claiming rides · riding with a claim

15.8%+3.4

n=575 · A/E 1.11 · £1 −71.85

Big fields · 14+ runners

6.6%−5.8

n=591 · A/E 0.98 · £1 −51.80

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

7.6%−4.8

n=236 · A/E 0.85 · £1 −34.68

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 12.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Firm going 27.5% vs 12.4% · n=40

With Saeed bin Suroor 25.9% vs 12.4% · n=54

At Brighton 20.6% vs 12.4% · n=253

Off a 0-7-day break 20.5% vs 12.4% · n=264

At Newmarket 20.5% vs 12.4% · n=83

At Windsor 5.7% vs 12.4% · n=193

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 2,134 256 12% −532.17

Good to Firm 1,017 148 14.6% −110.33

Good 1,001 99 9.9% −205.01

Good to Soft 481 60 12.5% −5.19

Soft 387 52 13.4% +20.10

Heavy 112 16 14.3% −24.80

Firm 40 11 27.5% +10.99

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Kempton (AW) 590 53 9% −203.97

Wolverhampton (AW) 422 63 14.9% −61.84

Lingfield (AW) 386 43 11.1% −100.34

Chelmsford (AW) 320 43 13.4% −59.07

Southwell (AW) 259 32 12.4% −103.66

Brighton 253 52 20.6% −25.26

Newbury 246 29 11.8% −28.38

Windsor 193 11 5.7% −118.21

Goodwood 163 20 12.3% +29.14

Newcastle (AW) 157 22 14% −3.29

Sandown 155 18 11.6% −15.39

Ascot 152 13 8.6% +126.57

Chester 141 21 14.9% −27.53

Bath 137 20 14.6% −23.51

Haydock 135 16 11.9% +9.64

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 1,594 204 12.8% −383.14

Class 4 1,210 177 14.6% +13.09

Class 6 1,087 129 11.9% −308.83

Class 2 547 64 11.7% +88.29

Class 3 485 50 10.3% −208.14

Class 1 235 18 7.7% −33.68

Class 7 12 0 0% −12.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 707 225 31.8% 1.06 −75.84

2nd–3rd fav 1,385 225 16.2% 0.95 −265.77

4th–6th fav 1,673 143 8.5% 1.03 −236.70

7th+ in betting 1,407 49 3.5% 1.01 −268.10

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses ridden

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Rhoscolyn (GB) 19 1 3 16 Oct 26

Grace Angel (GB) 19 4 8 10 Aug 25

Muscika (GB) 17 3 8 21 Dec 24

Alligator Alley (GB) 17 2 4 22 Oct 24

Moe's Legacy (GB) 15 4 8 8 Oct 26

Orbaan (GB) 15 1 3 25 Nov 25

Nomadic Empire (IRE) 15 1 6 18 Oct 23

Mercers (GB) 15 4 6 9 Aug 22

Miss Dolly Rocker (GB) 14 3 6 7 Nov 26

Darkness (FR) 13 1 4 3 May 25

Cosmos Raj (GB) 13 3 5 27 Apr 25

Kingston Kurrajong (GB) 13 2 4 2 Apr 22

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 2,834 horses ridden in this window — each ran at least 7 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample

1 from 12

Only 12 rides in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

By month

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

14131610131015151310912

A flat rider: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Riding for

same window · biggest samples first

Main yardDavid O'Meara

16% of all rides
10.9% SR · A/E 0.93

TrainerRWSR£1

David O'Meara 827 90 10.9% −166.81

Andrew Balding 593 101 17% −56.89

Roger Charlton 377 63 16.7% −9.19

Michael Appleby 242 31 12.8% −53.01

Charles Hills 221 34 15.4% +90.22

Tony Carroll 179 23 12.8% +15.41

Darryll Holland 144 23 16% +32.75

David Menuisier 96 12 12.5% −3.92

Hugo Palmer 83 13 15.7% +30.25

Mark Usher 81 10 12.3% −12.09

Amanda Perrett 80 7 8.8% −40.74

William Knight 76 11 14.5% −4.47

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2017→

642

Archived wins

Pattern / graded wins

£10.8m

Prize money

2018

Best season · 111 wins

Cicero's Gift (GB) — Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Sponsored By Qipco) (Group 1) (Str) Ascot · Oct 2025 · Group 1

£655,709

Quadrilateral (GB) — Bet365 Fillies' Mile (Group 1) Newmarket · Oct 2019 · Group 1

£321,829

Venetian Prince (GB) — 143rd Derby Italiano (No Geldings) (Turf) San Siro (ITY) · Jun 2026 · Group 2

£253,043

Notable horses

Grace Angel (GB) Moe's Legacy (GB) Mercers (GB) Archimento (GB) Barenboim (GB) Seinesational (GB)

Sires of the horses ridden

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dark Angel (IRE) 12.1% · 17–141

Progeny have won 11.3% of 21,957 runs since 2011 (1,595 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 15% from 107.

Kodiac (GB) 10.2% · 14–137

Progeny have won 10.4% of 23,605 runs since 2010 (1,665 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 14.3% from 147. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 7.1% from 255.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 10.5% · 9–86

Progeny have won 13.7% of 12,244 runs since 2014 (1,107 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 962.

Invincible Spirit (IRE) 7.1% · 6–85

Progeny have won 11.9% of 20,874 runs since 2008 (1,572 horses). Strongest on Firm going: 16.1% from 161. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.9% from 845.

Camelot (GB) 14.1% · 10–71

Progeny have won 11.7% of 7,741 runs since 2017 (759 horses).

Kingman (GB) 20% · 14–70

Progeny have won 14.6% of 7,534 runs since 2018 (778 horses). Weakest on Soft going: 11% from 970. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 8.9% from 123.

Top line: the rider's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 14 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 5,172 · newest first

The latest 50 of 5,172 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 22 February 2017 to 7 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Kodi Lion (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Handicap StakesClass 2 · 6f · Good To Soft · 22 ran 19th 20/1

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Miss Dolly Rocker (GB)T: Faye Bramley Virgin Bet November Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)Class 2 · 12f · Good To Soft · 23 ran 14th 40/1

07 Nov 26 Doncaster Space Bear (IRE)T: Michael Appleby Virgin Bet Every Saturday Money Back Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race)Class 1 · 6f · Good To Soft · 20 ran 20th 66/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Californian Angel (GB)T: Hugo Palmer AWC Finals Day At Newcastle 26th March Nursery Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 13/2

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Berkshire Dream (GB)T: Andrew Balding Juddmonte EBF Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)Class 2 · 7.5f · Standard · 12 ran 1st 28/1

05 Nov 26 Chelmsford (AW) Master Of Puppets (FR)T: Paddy Butler Midnite Built Different Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 250/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Super Hit (FR)T: James Owen Try Unibet's Smartview Racecards Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Standard / Slow · 14 ran 7th 9/2

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Noble Archer (GB)T: Andrew Balding British EBF Future Stayers Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 8th 50/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Coulin Rouge (IRE)T: George Baker Unibet/British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Div II) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 12 ran 11th 150/1

04 Nov 26 Kempton (AW) Almanueva (GB)T: Andrew Balding Unibet/British EBF Fillies' Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 5th 50/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Kiniro (GB)T: Dan Horsford Midnite Aint Your Grandads Bookie Handicap StakesClass 4 · 6f · Standard · 12 ran 6th 5/1

03 Nov 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Oh So Perfect (IRE)T: Michael Appleby AWC Season 14 Has Begun Handicap Stakes (Div II)Class 6 · 7f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 13/2

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Nakila Sun (GER)T: Andrew Balding Hurworth Blooodstock Horris Hill Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 7f · Good To Soft · 15 ran 7th 18/1

31 Oct 26 Newmarket Mischievous Angel (GB)T: Philip McBride Cologne's 65 Preis Von Europa British Ebf Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 3 · 7f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 11th 200/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Livorno (GB)T: Charles Hills Westminster-137 Grosser Preis Von Berlin Novice Stakes (gbb Race)Class 4 · 6f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 5th 22/1

30 Oct 26 Newmarket Royal Playwright (GB)T: Andrew Balding St Simon Stakes (Group 3)Class 1 · 12f · Good To Soft · 6 ran 2nd 6/1

29 Oct 26 Bath Buxted Flyer (FR)T: Andrew Balding David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 3 · 8f · Soft · 12 ran 7th 8/1

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Whitesnake (GB)T: Roger Teal Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap StakesClass 5 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 13 ran 3rd 5/2F

28 Oct 26 Kempton (AW) Cougar Force (GB)T: Heather Main Bet £20 Get £20 With Unibet Maiden Fillies' Stakes (GBB Race)Class 4 · 7f · Standard / Slow · 8 ran 5th 50/1

27 Oct 26 Wolverhampton (AW) What A Go I've Had (GB)T: Michael Appleby AWC Season 14 Has Begun Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)Class 4 · 8.5f · Standard · 12 ran 10th 4/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 5 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 6 runs (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 7 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 5 runs (won 0) · to 7 Nov 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Jason Watson's strike rate?: Jason Watson has won 642 of 5,172 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 12.4% (as at 14 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Jason Watson do best at?: Brighton by strike rate: 52 wins from 253 rides (20.6%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Which yard does Jason Watson ride most for?: David O'Meara, with 827 rides since 2008 — 16% of the total. That pairing has won 90 (10.9%).
Is Jason Watson in form?: Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 12 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Jason Watson's Fair A/E?: 1.01, from 5,133 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.