What is Paul Murphy's strike rate?

Paul Murphy has won 5 of 220 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Paul Murphy do best at?

Sedgefield by strike rate: 1 wins from 34 runners (2.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Paul Murphy?

Keith Mercer, with 63 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.6%).

What is Paul Murphy's Fair A/E?

0.52, from 219 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Paul Murphy

220 runners in the lifetime window · 48 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Sep 2010

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

5–220

Wins / Runs

2.3%

Strike rate

n=220

28 (13%)

Placed

0.52

Fair A/E

n=219 · 0.45 incl. margin

−29.27

£1 level stake

n=220 at SP · −13.3%

£63,966

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 70 runners a season, winning with 2% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.52).

Deterministic profile computed from 220 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fresh horses: 2.6% Keith Mercer: 1.6% from 63

The read

Keith Mercer rode 29% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (1.6%, A/E 0.33). The yard also read well on Soft going (6.3%, n=32) and beyond 3m (5.9%, n=34).

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 2.3% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

2.6%+0.3

n=38 · A/E 0.71 · £1 −25.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

5.6%+3.3

n=18 · A/E 1.88 · £1 −5.00

Debutants · first career start

10.5%+8.2

n=19 · A/E 3.89 · £1 +149.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

0%−2.3

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

14.3%+12.0

n=7 · A/E 2.59 · £1 +1.00

When favourite

25%

n=4 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −2.27

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

1.1%−1.2

n=95 · A/E 0.25 · £1 +6.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−2.3

n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 2.3% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On Soft going 6.3% vs 2.3% · n=32

Beyond 3m 5.9% vs 2.3% · n=34

In Class 5 5.4% vs 2.3% · n=56

Off a 8-14-day break 0% vs 2.3% · n=46

Over 2m5f – 3m 0% vs 2.3% · n=41

In Flat races 0% vs 2.3% · n=41

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Chase 81 2 2.5% −60.00

Hurdle 77 1 1.3% −75.27

Flat 41 0 0% −41.00

NH Flat 21 2 9.5% +147.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 83 1 1.2% −81.27

Good to Soft 48 1 2.1% −40.00

Soft 32 2 6.3% +48.00

Good to Firm 27 1 3.7% +74.00

Standard (AW) 15 0 0% −15.00

Heavy 14 0 0% −14.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Sedgefield 34 1 2.9% −21.00

Newcastle 16 0 0% −16.00

Catterick 14 1 7.1% +87.00

Wetherby 14 0 0% −14.00

Perth 11 0 0% −11.00

Southwell (AW) 10 0 0% −10.00

Southwell 10 0 0% −10.00

Cartmel 10 1 10% −8.27

Musselburgh 9 0 0% −9.00

Aintree 8 0 0% −8.00

Hexham 8 0 0% −8.00

Cheltenham 8 0 0% −8.00

Market Rasen 7 0 0% −7.00

Kelso 7 0 0% −7.00

Carlisle 7 1 14.3% +1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 4 75 1 1.3% −73.27

Class 5 56 3 5.4% +32.00

Class 3 34 0 0% −34.00

Class 6 29 1 3.4% +72.00

Class 1 19 0 0% −19.00

Class 2 7 0 0% −7.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 4 1 25% 0.88 −2.27

2nd–3rd fav 20 0 0% 0.00 −20.00

4th–6th fav 48 2 4.2% 0.69 −27.00

7th+ in betting 148 2 1.4% 0.65 +20.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

65.8% completed · 158 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 81 64.2% 3 6 17 2 1

Hurdle 77 67.5% 3 1 21 0 0

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Maidstone Mixture (FR)then David Pipe 24 1 3 7 Sep 10

Bed Fellow (IRE)from Alan Jarvis · then David Barron 14 0 1 9 Dec 08

Has Scored (IRE)from Ferdy Murphy 12 1 5 20 Mar 09

Greenandredparson (IRE)from John F O'Neill · then Patrick Griffin 9 0 2 26 May 10

Sybellius D'artaix (FR)from R Chotard 8 0 0 16 Jul 09

On The Right Path (GB)then Alison Batchelor 7 0 0 30 Aug 10

Goodnight Dick (IRE)from Liz Doyle 7 0 1 3 Dec 08

Quincy Des Pictons (FR)from Ferdy Murphy · then M S Tuck 6 0 1 16 Mar 10

Kayaka (FR)then Brian Storey 6 0 1 23 Jul 09

Cybergenic (FR)from J Bertran De Balanda · then Tracey Watkins 6 0 0 2 May 09

Bawnafaugh (IRE)from Liz Doyle · then Graham Smith 6 0 2 20 Jan 09

Back To Paris (IRE)from Eoin Griffin · then Philip Kirby 5 0 0 16 May 10

All 48 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 48 horses listed, 26 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Ferdy Murphy (4) and Liz Doyle (3); 22 had their first archived run for this yard.

21 have since run for another yard, most often for Ferdy Murphy (4) and Brian Ellison (2); 27 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

3050000170060

A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderKeith Mercer

29% of all rides
1.6% SR · A/E 0.33

RiderRWSR£1

Keith Mercer 63 1 1.6% −55.00

Michael O'Connell 34 1 2.9% +67.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2007→

Archived wins

£72,661

Prize money

2008

Best season · 3 wins

This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Maidstone Mixture (FR) — Swan Hotel Newby Bridge Juvenile Novices' Hurdle Cartmel · Aug 2008 · Class 4

£3,578

Sybellius D'artaix (FR) — Jewson Novices' Hurdle (Qualifier) Cartmel · May 2007 · Class 4

£3,253

Has Scored (IRE) — Robert Elliott Memorial Handicap Chase Carlisle · Mar 2008 · Class 5

£3,253

Notable horses

Maidstone Mixture (FR) Sybellius D'artaix (FR) Has Scored (IRE) Par Avion (GB) Opus Cafe (FR) Elzahann (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Linamix (FR) 4.2% · 1–24

Progeny have won 11.1% of 1,571 runs since 2008 (133 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 14.1% from 156. Weakest on Good to Firm going: 5.4% from 129. Strongest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 14.8% from 418. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 5.3% from 113.

Trans Island (GB) 0% · 0–14

Progeny have won 9% of 4,740 runs since 2008 (295 horses).

Pursuit of Love (GB) 0% · 0–12

Progeny have won 6.7% of 929 runs since 2008 (74 horses).

Sadler's Wells (USA) 8.3% · 1–12

Progeny have won 11.3% of 4,636 runs since 2008 (370 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 18.7% from 107.

Pasternak (GB) 0% · 0–9

Progeny have won 8.5% of 895 runs since 2008 (74 horses). Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 4.4% from 158.

Sassanian (USA) 0% · 0–8

Progeny have won 10.3% of 661 runs since 2008 (67 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 274 · newest first

The latest 50 of 274 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 20 February 2007 to 7 September 2010.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

07 Sep 10 Sedgefield Maidstone Mixture (FR)J: Paul Gallagher Poker At bet365 Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 19.5f · Good To Soft · 7 ran 6th 9/2

30 Aug 10 Cartmel On The Right Path (GB)J: Paul Gallagher Sticky Toffee Pudding Juvenile HurdleClass 5 · 17f · Good · 9 ran 5th 40/1

15 Jul 10 Cartmel Aurifex (IRE)J: Fearghal Davis John Smith's Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 22f · Good To Soft · 10 ran PU 80/1

14 Jul 10 Catterick On The Right Path (GB)J: James Sullivan Racinguk.com HandicapClass 5 · 12f · Good · 9 ran PU 100/1

01 Jul 10 Perth Aurifex (IRE)J: Paddy Aspell Timothy Hardie Jewellers Novices' ChaseClass 4 · 24f · Good · 8 ran 7th 100/1

29 Jun 10 Hamilton On The Right Path (GB)J: Patrick Donaghy Racing Uk Sky 432 HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 9th 100/1

01 Jun 10 Redcar On The Right Path (GB)J: James Sullivan Buy Your Tickets On-Line At redcarracing.co.uk Maiden StakesClass 5 · 10f · Good · 10 ran 8th 100/1

26 May 10 Sedgefield Greenandredparson (IRE)J: Adrian Lane Dylan Meale Memorial Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 26.5f · Good · 5 ran BD 5/1

16 May 10 Ripon Back To Paris (IRE)J: Andrew Elliott Middleham Trainers Association HandicapClass 4 · 10f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 6th 33/1

15 May 10 Thirsk On The Right Path (GB)J: Kelly Harrison Whitby Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12f · Good To Firm · 9 ran PU 40/1

06 May 10 Wetherby Secret Desert (GB)J: Paul Gallagher Wetherby Racecourse Showground For Outdoor Events Conditional Jockeys' Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 13 ran 3rd 50/1

05 May 10 Kelso Greenandredparson (IRE)J: Adrian Lane Dryburgh Abbey Hotel Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 3 · 25f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 11/2

04 May 10 Catterick Back To Paris (IRE)J: Andrew Elliott Book Raceday Hospitality On 01748 810165 Claiming StakesClass 6 · 12f · Firm · 12 ran 4th 8/1

28 Apr 10 Southwell Greenandredparson (IRE)J: Paul Gallagher Play Golf At Southwell Golf Club Novices' Handicap ChaseClass 4 · 25.5f · Good · 10 ran UR 15/2

27 Apr 10 Sedgefield Cerium (FR)J: Graham Lee totepool Durham National (Handicap Chase)Class 3 · 28f · Good To Firm · 10 ran PU 16/1

27 Apr 10 Sedgefield Mr Pointment (IRE)J: Adrian Lane totepool Durham National (Handicap Chase)Class 3 · 28f · Good To Firm · 10 ran 9th 40/1

26 Apr 10 Newcastle On The Right Path (GB)J: Kelly Harrison Parklands Golf Club Maiden StakesClass 5 · 12.5f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 6th 66/1

26 Apr 10 Newcastle Back To Paris (IRE)J: David Nolan La Taxis Conditions StakesClass 3 · 8f · Good To Firm · 5 ran 5th 100/1

25 Apr 10 Wetherby Secret Desert (GB)J: Adrian Lane Royal Pigeon Racing Association Novices' HurdleClass 4 · 16f · Good · 12 ran F 25/1

25 Apr 10 Wetherby Aurifex (IRE)J: Paddy Aspell Jct600 - Chrysler - Jeep - Dodge Beginners' ChaseClass 4 · 21.5f · Good · 4 ran PU 9/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Paul Murphy's strike rate?: Paul Murphy has won 5 of 220 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 2.3% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Paul Murphy do best at?: Sedgefield by strike rate: 1 wins from 34 runners (2.9%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Paul Murphy?: Keith Mercer, with 63 runners since 2008 — 29% of the total. That pairing has won 1 (1.6%).
What is Paul Murphy's Fair A/E?: 0.52, from 219 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.