Richard Mullen
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rode around 200 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 10% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.89). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 16% (192 rides).
The record is strongest at Chester (20.3%, n=69) and Warwick (18%, n=50) — all clear of the rider's 10% baseline. It is weakest at York (0% over 45 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 15.6% (n=192, Fair A/E 0.96), but rides in big fields of 14 or more have been a poor signal at 6.9% (n=378, Fair A/E 1.14). The market has consistently overbet horses returning fresh after 61+ days: 7.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.69 and −100.73 to a £1 stake over 243 rides — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Ed McMahon supplied 13% of the rides and beats the rider's average (15.7% vs 10%, A/E 0.96). 13 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the 200,000 Tattersalls Millions Median Auction Trophy at Newmarket (Sep 2011, £108,200).
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 10% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 10% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 3,180 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 3,180 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 28 March 2005 to 29 July 2016.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
- What is Richard Mullen's strike rate?
- Richard Mullen has won 182 of 1,822 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 10% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Richard Mullen do best at?
- Chester by strike rate: 14 wins from 69 rides (20.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Richard Mullen ride most for?
- Ed McMahon, with 230 rides since 2008 — 13% of the total. That pairing has won 36 (15.7%).
- What is Richard Mullen's Fair A/E?
- 0.89, from 1,812 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.