Scott McCullagh
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
Rides around 70 times a season, almost all on the flat, winning on 7% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92). Riding last-time-out winners the record reads 12% (111 rides).
It is weakest at Galway (0% over 43 rides) — the widest gap in the record. Rides on last-time-out winners have been a positive signal at 11.7% (n=111, Fair A/E 0.80). The market has consistently overbet first rides on a horse: 5.7% strike, Fair A/E 0.80 and −411.98 to a £1 stake over 824 rides — those runners underperform what the price implies. Mrs J. Harrington supplies 21% of the rides and matches the rider's average almost exactly (8%, A/E 0.95). The rider also reads well in Class 4 (13.8%, n=58) and on Good to Firm going (11.7%, n=111). 5 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the rider has landed: the XIN GIN Irish EBF Brownstown Stakes at Leopardstown (Jul 2026, £42,000). The standout partner of the record: Aurora Princess (IRE) — 5 wins from 14 rides together. Seasonally, the rider fires Jan–Feb.
Riding patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.2% baselineEach tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. First rides are the first captured pairing of horse and rider; last-time-out winners are horses whose previous captured run was a win; claiming rides are runs where the rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baselineRecord by conditions
same window as headerGoing
Courses
Class
Market position
Distance
By season
Handicaps
Field size
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Horses ridden
same window as header · most-raced firstCurrent form
significance-gatedLast 14 days
Small sampleBy month
strike by month, lifetimeRiding for
same window · biggest samples firstCareer highlights
lifetime archive, 2016→Sires of the horses ridden
progeny record · win % by ground and tripThe record
latest 50 of 1,374 · newest firstThe latest 50 of 1,374 archived rides, newest first. The full record runs from 23 December 2016 to 11 November 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
KTB’s figures
the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026KTB’s figures on this rider’s mounts since 7 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · top-rated on KTB Rating in 2 runs (won 0) · fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 11 Nov 2026.
Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.
Quick answers
- What is Scott McCullagh's strike rate?
- Scott McCullagh has won 99 of 1,374 rides since 2008, a strike rate of 7.2% (as at 13 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
- Which course does Scott McCullagh do best at?
- Gowran Park by strike rate: 7 wins from 75 rides (9.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most rides on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
- Which yard does Scott McCullagh ride most for?
- Mrs J. Harrington, with 286 rides since 2008 — 21% of the total. That pairing has won 23 (8%).
- Is Scott McCullagh in form?
- Too few rides in the last 14 days to read — 2 rides, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
- What is Scott McCullagh's Fair A/E?
- 0.92, from 1,372 rides with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.