1:17 Carlisle
This Class 4 novices' hurdle at Carlisle over 2m1f33y forms part of the Go North Night Nurse Series and carries GBB status. A field of 13 includes several lightly raced types and debutants, with no horse holding an official rating above 105 and the majority unproven on the ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 54 and 41, underlining the tentative nature of the contest and the scope for unexposed runners to improve.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace is likely to be strong, and the confidence in that assessment is high. Push The Limit, Eagle Warrior, Johnny Moonshine, Old Comrades, Striking Midnight and Argentum can all be expected to race prominently or on the lead, setting a searching gallop that may cause the race to collapse late. That shape would play into the hands of hold-up horses, though most of the principals prefer to settle in mid-division, posing the key question of whether any of the prominent runners can sustain their effort or if the race will fall into the lap of something coming from further back.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Dilrisk KTB Selection54/100
Dilrisk is lightly raced with just two runs to his name and no official rating yet so must be read with caution. He steps up in trip today having shown ordinary form over 2m last season and is out of a dam who has produced no winners from two other runners. Nicky Richards has a 22% strike rate at Carlisle from 506 runs which is above his 17% elsewhere while Danny McMenamin rides with an 18% strike rate here in line with his record at other tracks. The 5-year-old typically settles in midfield. As the KTB Selection he holds the highest Fit Score of 54 and looks to have been placed to take advantage of a potentially testing pace.
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2Moorhead51/100
Moorhead showed fair form when placed on both starts in bumpers last season. The yard and jockey both operate at exactly their usual strike rate here. He steps up in trip today with only a modest family record to lean on and the overall picture remains tentative given the small sample. The 4-year-old typically settles in midfield though that assessment rests on limited evidence. With a KTB Fit Score of 51 he is the closest pursuer of the selection and should be suited by a strong pace that might stretch those up front.
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3Push The Limit50/100
Push The Limit has been placed on his only run at Carlisle. He steps up in trip for the first time today having last run over 1m6f so this is a fresh question. First-time headgear is another new factor for a horse whose half-brother La Tihaty showed useful ability and whose dam has produced two winners from four other runners. The yard and jockey combination is in excellent form at the track with respective strike rates of 21% and 23%. Dropping in class, the 4-year-old is a confirmed front-runner and will be right up there from the start in a race where the strong pace could test his stamina late.
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4Lecanvey Lady48/100
Lecanvey Lady is a debutant with a modest pedigree as half-sister to Le Coq Hardi and from a dam that has produced two winners from two other runners. The yard's 7% strike rate at Carlisle sits below their 10% elsewhere while Ryan Mania rides to a 12% record here that matches his overall figure. With no official rating, no recent form and low data confidence this is very much an unknown on her first start. By Shirocco, she represents a yard that has shown a 25% strike rate when teaming up with the jockey. The 5-year-old will need to improve markedly on what the bare figures suggest.
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5Johnny Moonshine48/100
Johnny Moonshine is a smart performer who has shown ability on both visits to Carlisle without managing a win or place. He drops back in trip today having last run over 2m7f and with only four career starts the going remains an unknown. Trainer operates at a 15% strike rate here in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey is 4% at the track in line with his 9% away from it. The 5-year-old usually races prominently. An official rating of 105 places him among the higher-rated runners, though the KTB Fit Score of 48 reflects the reservations around his current form.
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6Farfromaway47/100
Farfromaway is a debutant with no official rating and no recent runs to go on. The dam has produced just one other runner which failed to win. Trainer and jockey both operate at an 11% strike rate here at Carlisle which sits in line with their figures at other tracks.
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7Old Comrades47/100
Old Comrades has shown ability in two starts, winning a bumper on debut before a fair effort in a maiden hurdle. He is a full brother to Listed winner Brechin Castle and comes from a family with plenty of winners. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of this lightly raced 6-year-old who usually races prominently.
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8Eagle Warrior47/100
Eagle Warrior has shown ability in two starts over hurdles, finishing a clear second on debut before a modest fifth last time. He steps up in trip today having already tried this distance once without success, while the family record is respectable with a half-brother to a dual winner and three winning siblings from the dam. The trainer has no recorded runners at Carlisle and the horse remains lightly raced with low data confidence; a front-runner who will be on the pace.
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9Aye Over Tee46/100
Aye Over Tee is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 18% strike rate at Carlisle, in line with their record elsewhere, while Jonjo O'Neill Jr has a 24% strike rate here which is above his general figure. The horse is a half-brother to high-class Grade 1 winner Inthepocket and comes from a dam who has produced three winners from three runners to race. With no racecourse form and low data confidence this remains very much an unknown on debut.
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10Striking Midnight46/100
Striking Midnight is lightly raced with just two bumper runs behind him, finishing placed on both occasions. He steps up in trip today having already been placed at this distance without winning, though the small sample means the move is best treated as an open question. The yard records an 11% strike rate at Carlisle from 35 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while jockey Callum Bewley has a 6% strike rate here from 198 rides, also in line with his wider figures. Usually races prominently and steps up in class.
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11Watery Borren43/100
Watery Borren is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on. The yard's 10% strike rate at Carlisle sits in line with their record elsewhere while Derek Fox rides at a 7% strike rate here. First-time headgear is applied.
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12Argentum43/100
Argentum arrives with modest recent form having finished ninth then fifth from his last two starts. The yard and jockey both hold a 7% strike rate at Carlisle which sits in line with their records elsewhere. He steps up in trip today with no experience of this ground and makes his first appearance at the track while usually racing prominently.
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13Cinnamon Storm41/100
Cinnamon Storm is a debutant with a limited pedigree as a half-sister to a modest winner and from a dam who has produced just one other winner. The yard has a 4% strike rate at Carlisle from 47 runs, in line with their record elsewhere, while Sean Quinlan rides at a 10% strike rate here from 385 rides, also matching his wider figure. First-time headgear is applied on a day when the data confidence is low and little else is known.
KTB verdict
Dilrisk tops the KTB Fit Scores and is taken as the selection in a race where the strong pace could create late opportunities. The 5-year-old brings ordinary but valid bumper form, a mid-division run style that should keep him out of the early fray, and the benefit of a yard and jockey who both perform at or above their usual level at Carlisle. His main dangers are Moorhead, who showed fair placed form in bumpers and is next best on the numbers, and Push The Limit, who brings Carlisle placings, a drop in class, first-time headgear and a front-running style that will ensure he is prominent throughout. Johnny Moonshine cannot be entirely dismissed on his Carlisle efforts and official rating.
KTB Selection Dilrisk
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:27 UTC, 22 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Dilrisk | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Moorhead | 22/1 | Bet365 |
| Push The Limit | 8/15 | William Hill |
| Lecanvey Lady | 80/1 | Bet365 |
| Johnny Moonshine | 14/1 | Bet365 |
| Farfromaway | 20/1 | Bet Victor |
| Old Comrades | 70/1 | 7Bet |
| Eagle Warrior | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Aye Over Tee | 9/1 | William Hill |
| Striking Midnight | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Watery Borren | 6/1 | Bet Victor |
| Argentum | 80/1 | 7Bet |
| Cinnamon Storm | 66/1 | Bet365 |
This is the narrative read of the 1:17 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Carlisle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Carlisle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its hurdles debut while wearing first-time headgear?
Push The Limit is wearing first-time headgear and steps up in trip for its first run over hurdles.
How many previous winners has the dam of Old Comrades produced?
The dam of Old Comrades has had 4 other runners, 3 of them winners.
Which runner is a half-brother to a Grade 1 winner?
Aye Over Tee is a half-brother to Inthepocket, a Grade 1 winner with 4 wins from 14 runs.
Who has the highest strike rate at Carlisle among the jockeys in this race?
Jonjo O'Neill Jr has a 24% strike rate at Carlisle from 96 rides.
Which horse has shown ability at Carlisle without winning?
Johnny Moonshine has shown ability on both visits to Carlisle, finishing sixth and fourth with no win or place.
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