1:55 Curragh
This 0-78 handicap over six furlongs at the Curragh on yielding ground brings together a field of 17, many of whom are modest performers with questions to answer. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Nouvel Espoir and Tropical Retreat sharing the highest mark of 59, followed by Ballintogher at 57. Overall the numbers point to a race where course form, trip suitability and trainer record at the venue will be key factors in a steadily-run affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including the top two in the market, are held-up types who produce their effort late, though Ballintogher is one who usually races prominently. The key question is whether those coming from off the pace can pick their way through in a race where the ability to quicken off a steady gallop may prove decisive.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Nouvel Espoir KTB Selection59/100
Nouvel Espoir is a fair performer who arrives in solid form after a string of placed efforts and a recent win. He has already won over this trip and on yielding ground, and he has also scored at the Curragh from 14 runs. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer James M Barcoe has a modest 4% strike rate at the track from 27 runs, which is a clear negative, though Colin Keane's 13% strike rate at Curragh from 1262 rides offers some compensation.
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2Tropical Retreat59/100
Tropical Retreat is a fair sort who has won twice at this trip including once from four runs at the Curragh. He has shown very little spark this year though and failed to beat a rival on his most recent start. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Thomas Mullins has a modest 3% strike-rate at the track from 201 runs which adds to the negatives, as does his record of no win or place from three starts on yielding ground.
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3Ballintogher57/100
Ballintogher is a modest performer who has shown some consistency here, finishing placed once from three runs at the Curragh. He won at this trip last time out and the yard's record at the track is respectable with an 8% strike rate from 53 runs. The four-year-old usually races handily, on or close to the lead. Going suitability remains unknown on this lightly-raced profile though he has placed once from one start on yielding ground.
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4Merisi Diamond53/100
Merisi Diamond is a modest performer who has won three times at this track from 14 runs and looks well placed by the booking of Dylan Browne McMonagle. Trainer Thomas Coyle has a solid 13% strike rate here from 16 runs with an A/E of 2.09. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. He drops back to 6f having won at the trip before but is 0-2 on yielding ground.
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5Spodo Komodo51/100
Spodo Komodo is a fair performer who has won once from three starts at this track and also has a win at today's trip on his record. He drops back from 7f today having shown mixed form in recent runs that included a solid second at this course. The four-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late. Trainer John James Feane's modest 6% strike-rate at Curragh from 264 runs is a negative while the horse remains unproven on yielding ground.
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6Nakamura51/100
Nakamura is a modest performer who has been out of the frame on all five runs at this track and looks exposed after 16 starts this year. He drops back to 6f having won twice at the trip earlier in his career and has a solid record on yielding ground with two wins from four starts. Trainer J. P. Murtagh has a 10% strike-rate at Curragh from a big sample.
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7Lilli's Angel51/100
Lilli's Angel is a fair 3-year-old who showed improved form when winning last time and has already scored over today's trip. She has run twice at the Curragh without placing and the trainer's modest 7% strike rate from 61 runs here is another negative. The going looks suitable on the basis of one win from two starts.
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8Motta Alta51/100
Motta Alta is a fair 3-year-old with solid recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts from five runs. Stall two looks an advantage on this sharp track and the yard's long record at the Curragh gives some confidence despite the modest 9% strike rate. Trip looks an open question after one unsuccessful attempt at six furlongs and the going remains unknown on the basis of just five runs.
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9Go Athletico49/100
Go Athletico is a modest performer who has won twice at the Curragh from 19 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 30 runs. He handles yielding ground well enough with a win and three places from five starts. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track from a large sample is a clear negative.
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10Michael's Well49/100
Michael's Well is a modest performer who won a maiden over this trip on debut but has failed to build on it in five subsequent starts. He ran no better than mid-division when seventh of 12 over course and distance last time. Trainer Eddie & Patrick Harty holds a solid 8% strike rate here from a decent-sized sample.
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11Real Force46/100
Real Force is a fair performer who has won once in 11 runs at the Curragh. He has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts and has failed to place in four attempts on yielding ground. The nine-year-old is also 0-7 at this trip and the yard's 3% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement.
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12Gypsy Queen46/100
Gypsy Queen is a modest performer who showed useful pace when winning over this trip on her debut last year. She has failed to build on that in four subsequent runs, including a poor effort over 7.5f last time, and was well beaten on her only previous visit to this track. Trainer W. McCreery operates at an 8% strike rate here from a large sample.
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13Apache Outlaw45/100
Apache Outlaw is a modest performer with a solid course record here, having won once from 16 starts at the Curragh. He has been competitive on yielding ground without winning, placing five times from six runs, and has won twice at this trip though he is dropping back from 7f today. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate from 674 runs at the track is a clear negative.
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14Heddon Street43/100
Heddon Street is a modest performer who has shown fair form on his better days, including a win at this trip. He was well held on his only run here though and now steps back up from 5f having been below form on his last two starts. Trainer Leonard Paul Flynn has only a small sample at the track so far.
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15Tolebi42/100
Tolebi is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately and is now tried in first-time headgear. He has run three times at the Curragh without placing and his only run on yielding ground also failed to produce a win or place. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate from 207 runs at the track adds to the negatives.
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16All The Girls37/100
All The Girls is a modest performer who has been knocking around in similar company without winning this year. She drops back to 6f having been placed at the trip earlier in the campaign, though she is unproven on yielding ground and makes her first appearance at the Curragh. Trainer T G McCourt's 3% strike rate from 394 runs at the track is a clear negative.
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17Rosato36/100
Rosato is a modest performer who has run 15 times at the Curragh without winning but has been placed once. He drops back to 6f having won at the trip in the past though his last run came over 7f. Trainer Charles Weld has a 0% strike rate from 41 runs at this track while the horse handles yielding ground well with three wins from six starts.
KTB verdict
Nouvel Espoir is the KTB Selection. He arrives in solid form after a string of placed efforts and a recent win, has already won over this trip and on yielding ground, and has scored at the Curragh. The trainer's modest record at the track is the main concern but the overall profile fits well in a race where being handy pays. The main dangers are Tropical Retreat, who has course and trip form but has shown very little this year, and Ballintogher, who has shown consistency here and won at the trip last time out.
KTB Selection Nouvel Espoir
This is the narrative read of the 1:55 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Curragh racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won three times at the Curragh?
Merisi Diamond has won three times at this track from 14 runs.
How many horses in the field are usually held up?
The majority of the field are held-up types, including the top two in the KTB Fit Scores, with only Ballintogher and Real Force racing more prominently or in midfield.
Which runner is making its debut in first-time headgear?
Tolebi is now tried in first-time headgear.
Who has the best trainer strike-rate at the Curragh among the principals?
Thomas Coyle has a 13% strike rate at Curragh from 16 runs with an A/E of 2.09 for Merisi Diamond.
Which horse has the strongest record on yielding ground in the field?
Rosato handles yielding ground well with three wins from six starts.
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