3:42 Windsor
This Class 5 handicap over 6f12y at Windsor on good ground brings together a field of 14 modest performers where the KTB Fit scores range from 64 down to 44. The race features several course winners and horses with placed form at the track, though many have been patchy of late. Overall the numbers point to a competitive event in which late closers could be advantaged if the anticipated strong pace materialises.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present and the pace shape assessed as strong with high confidence, the race is likely to be run at a solid gallop from early on. Kiss And Run and Cypriot Diaspora are the types to take the field along or race prominently, while the majority of the field including the top five in the KTB rankings are hold-up performers. This sets up the key question of whether the pace will collapse in the closing stages, handing the advantage to those produced late.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Strike KTB Selection64/100
Strike is a modest performer who has won twice at Windsor from five runs and also has five wins at this trip from 29 attempts. His recent form of 832416 shows he remains competitive at this level though he has been a bit in and out. The Jonathan Portman yard has a modest 7% strike rate here from a big sample of 569 runs while the 5lb claimer Olivia Tubb is riding at the track for the first time. Dropping in class from his most recent starts, he is a usual hold-up performer who produces his effort late. He has been placed eight times from 15 starts on good ground without winning on it and is drawn widest in stall 12.
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2Silky Robin58/100
Silky Robin is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with two wins in his last six starts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over twice from 13 attempts while his record on good ground reads a solid one win from two starts with another placed effort. The Brian Toomey stable holds a respectable 11% strike rate at Windsor from a smallish sample of nine runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has no course form on record and is drawn in stall 3. Tom Marquand takes the ride and has a 15% strike rate at the track from 725 rides.
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3Distant Rumble58/100
Distant Rumble is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from seven runs and also knows his way around the trip with three wins from 17 attempts. He has posted two placed efforts from four starts on good ground but is winless on it. The Roger Teal yard holds a 9% strike rate here from a sizeable sample of 185 runs. A usual hold-up performer who produces his effort late, he is drawn in stall 11. Marco Ghiani is in the saddle and the pair have a 24% strike rate together from 21 runs with a positive A/E of 1.42.
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4Rebel Path56/100
Rebel Path is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track. His recent form is patchy but he did land a similar race here in June and has placed efforts on good ground from two wins and five places in nine starts. The Stuart Williams stable records a steady 8% strike rate at Windsor from a large sample of 450 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7. Olivia Haines claims 7lb and the combination has a strong 24% strike rate from 50 runs together with an A/E of 1.82.
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5Hierarchy52/100
Hierarchy is a modest performer with a 5-44 record at this trip including one win. He has shown bits of form this year but the recent string of 340650 reads like a horse who is finding it harder to land a blow. The Jamie Osborne yard has a solid 10% strike rate here from a big sample of 346 runs while Saffie Osborne is 0-8 at the track. A usual hold-up performer who produces his effort late, he has no course form on record and is drawn in stall 10. His record on good ground stands at five runs without a win or a place.
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6Thankuappreciate51/100
Thankuappreciate is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of two ordinary efforts. He has placed here without winning and has won at today's trip, though his record on good ground is only one win from 12 starts. The trainer's modest 7% strike rate at Windsor is offset by the jockey's stronger 17% record at the track.
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7Kiss And Run51/100
Kiss And Run is a modest performer who has won once from 12 runs at Windsor and arrives in reasonable form after a recent 5f success. He steps up to 6f for the first time today having been placed but not won at the trip previously. The yard holds a solid 10% strike rate here from 81 runs while the jockey also knows the track well. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is dropping in class and drawn in stall 1.
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8Cape Toronada51/100
Cape Toronada is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 421411 that includes two course wins at Windsor. He has won on good ground and at this trip, though drawn widest of all today in stall 14. The trainer's modest 7% strike-rate at the track is offset by the jockey's stronger 16% record here. He is stepping up in class.
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9Tiger Tulip50/100
Tiger Tulip is a modest performer who has won over this trip and at this track from four runs here. Recent form has been patchy but she has shown she handles good ground and the draw looks fine. The trainer's modest strike rate at Windsor is well established from a big sample.
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10Cypriot Diaspora48/100
Cypriot Diaspora is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year, including a win and two places from his last six starts. He has been around the track here without success in four runs and is drawn wide today from stall 13. He drops back to 6f having won twice at the trip previously, while the trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Windsor from a large sample. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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11Riley Rocks48/100
Riley Rocks is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of ordinary efforts. He has run just once at Windsor and showed only fair form that day while the yard’s solid 14% strike-rate here offers some encouragement. He acts on good ground but has limited experience on it.
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12Correspondence48/100
Correspondence is a modest performer who won on his only previous start here over 5f. He has been in and out this year and steps up to 6f for the first time having only placed once in five runs at the trip. The trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Windsor while the horse remains unproven on good ground. He is dropping in class.
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13Noelies Dream47/100
Noelies Dream is a modest performer who has shown little since landing a nursery win on soft ground last summer. He ran poorly on reappearance here in May and has been beaten at this trip on all three attempts. The trainer holds a solid 14% strike rate at Windsor from 44 runs.
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14Liosa44/100
Liosa is a modest performer who has won five times at this trip from 21 attempts and also has a win on good ground from five runs. She has run three times at Windsor without placing and her recent form of 46135 shows she can be competitive without necessarily threatening the winner. The trainer has only had four runners at the track so far which is too small a sample to judge.
KTB verdict
Strike is the KTB Selection. An eight-year-old with two wins from five runs at Windsor and five wins at this trip from 29 attempts, he remains competitive at this level on his recent form of 832416 despite being a bit in and out. Dropping in class and a usual hold-up performer, he is well suited if the strong pace collapses late as expected. The main dangers are Silky Robin, who has been in decent form with two recent wins and steps up to a trip he handles, and Distant Rumble, a dual course winner who knows the track well. Rebel Path and Hierarchy complete the principals in a race where several hold-up types will be looking to pounce off what should be a strong gallop.
KTB Selection Strike
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Windsor results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
Kiss And Run and Cypriot Diaspora are the front-runners who tend to make the running or race on the pace.
How many of the principals are hold-up performers?
All five principals – Strike, Silky Robin, Distant Rumble, Rebel Path and Hierarchy – are usually held up and produce their effort late.
Which horse is dropping in class and has won twice at Windsor?
Strike is dropping in class and has won twice at Windsor from five runs.
Who has the strongest recent course record among the principals?
Distant Rumble has won twice at this track from seven runs, while Strike has also won twice here from five runs.
Which runner is stepping up in class with two recent course wins?
Cape Toronada has a solid recent record of 421411 that includes two course wins at Windsor and is stepping up in class.
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