5:25 Curragh
A 16-runner 1m apprentice handicap at the Curragh on yielding to soft ground looks a competitive and open affair in which the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched. The top five are separated by only five points on the figures, underlining how little there is between many of these modest and fair performers. With no obvious leader in a steadily-run, tactical race, those who can be produced at the right moment from off the pace are likely to hold the key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of an obvious leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy will pay. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs. The key question is which of these late runners can time their challenge best on ground that remains unproven for several of the leading contenders.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Highbury See See KTB Selection62/100
Highbury See See is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at the Curragh and has also won at this trip. His recent form has been patchy though he did finish second in a similar race here last time out. The trainer records a 7% strike rate at the track from a big sample of 404 runs while the jockey has a strong 17% strike rate from 36 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall four. He remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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2Blue Blue Moon60/100
Blue Blue Moon is a fair performer who has already won over this trip from three attempts. He ran no better than seventh on his only previous visit to the Curragh and his latest effort was poor. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate here from 885 runs while the jockey is more positive at 11% from 63 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall eight. He remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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3Titanium59/100
Titanium is a modest performer who has won once from seven starts at this track. He drops back to his winning trip today having been well held over 1m1f last time, though his sole run on yielding to soft ground brought no joy. The trainer strikes at 6% here from 52 runs while the jockey is operating at 11% from 18 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall nine.
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4Cherry Hill Girl58/100
Cherry Hill Girl is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year without winning. She has course experience here from one run when finishing fourth and has placed once from two starts on yielding to soft ground. Dropping back to 1m today having won at the trip earlier in her career, she is drawn in stall five. Usually held up and producing her effort late, the trainer records a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 404 runs and the jockey operates at 10% from 21 rides here.
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5Terre De Vega57/100
Terre De Vega is a fair performer who has won once over today's trip but has been out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has only one previous run at the Curragh and no experience on yielding to soft ground leaves him with questions to answer. The trainer has a solid 12% strike rate here from 34 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first course winner from 17 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall three.
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6Spacebound55/100
Spacebound is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form, finishing second twice from four starts including over this course. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having last run over 7f, which poses a fresh question. The trainer has a 7% strike rate from 59 runs here while the jockey is operating at 5% from 60 rides.
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7Pretty Omagh Girl55/100
Pretty Omagh Girl is a fair performer who has already won once at the Curragh from three starts here. She steps up in trip today having last run over 7f yet owns a win at this distance from five attempts. The trainer's modest 5% strike rate at the track from a large sample is a negative while the jockey's 8% from 38 rides is closer to expectations.
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8Flanker Jet50/100
Flanker Jet is a fair performer who has shown useful consistency with form of 312415 this year. He has already placed over today's 1m trip but steps up in distance for the first time today while also unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer holds a modest 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 71 runs and the jockey is still seeking a first win from 16 rides here.
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9Lady Mary Heath46/100
Lady Mary Heath is a modest performer who has run seven times at the Curragh without winning yet has managed to place. She steps up from 6½f to 1m today which matches the trip she has placed at before though she is unproven on yielding to soft ground. The trainer has a solid 10% strike rate here while the jockey sits on a 5% record at the track.
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10Lady Arwen45/100
Lady Arwen is a modest performer with a solid recent record of two wins and two seconds from her last six starts. She has placed once from seven runs at the Curragh but is now 0-7 here and drops back to a trip she has won at three times from 19 attempts. The yard has a poor record at this track and she showed little on her only run on yielding to soft ground.
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11Loingseoir43/100
Loingseoir is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from 18 runs and steps up to a trip he has won over before. Recent form has been patchy with a string of mid-division finishes and he has never won on this type of ground though he has placed once. The yard has a solid record here but the 7lb claimer is still seeking his first Curragh success from ten rides.
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12Rhythm King40/100
Rhythm King is a modest performer who won over this trip in the past but has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts. He has won at the Curragh from six runs here and handles yielding to soft ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track.
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13Montevetro38/100
Montevetro is a modest performer whose recent form has been patchy at best with a 2390 record that includes a last-place finish. Dropping back to 1m for the first time poses a fresh question and he was well held on his only previous run here. The trainer has a 6% strike rate from 379 runs at the Curragh while the jockey is still seeking a first win from six rides at the track.
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14Stellar View36/100
Stellar View is a modest performer who has failed to build on a promising debut fifth and looks limited on his three subsequent starts at this trip. The yard has a 1% strike-rate at Curragh from 134 runs while the jockey is still seeking a first winner from ten rides here. Course connections give some hope but the recent form is off-putting.
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15Local Lad35/100
Local Lad is a modest performer who has shown little spark in two runs this season after a placed effort at this trip last year. He has a bit of placed form over course and distance but his two efforts here read poorly and the yard's poor strike-rate at Curragh offers no encouragement. The jockey is equally limited at the track and the horse remains unproven on yielding to soft ground.
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16Whiskey And Beer35/100
Whiskey And Beer is a modest performer who has shown very little in five starts and was well beaten on his only previous visit to the Curragh. He steps back up to a trip he has already failed to handle and the wide draw is another negative from stall 12. The trainer has had too few runners here to read much into while the jockey's modest 4% strike-rate at the track adds little confidence.
KTB verdict
Highbury See See is the KTB Selection. A modest performer with a Curragh win to his name and a recent second in a similar race here, he brings the strongest combination of course form and recent competitiveness. The steadily-run race should suit his held-up style, and the strong jockey record at the track adds to his claims. Main dangers are Blue Blue Moon, who has won over the trip, and Titanium, who returns to his winning distance, while Cherry Hill Girl and Terre De Vega cannot be ruled out in a race where several hold each other closely on the KTB Fit scores.
KTB Selection Highbury See See
This is the narrative read of the 5:25 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Curragh results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent Curragh form among the principals?
Highbury See See finished second in a similar race here last time.
How many of the field have previous winning form at the Curragh?
Highbury See See, Titanium, Pretty Omagh Girl, Loingseoir and Rhythm King have all won at the track.
Which principals are proven on yielding to soft ground?
Only Titanium and Cherry Hill Girl have experience of the surface, with the latter having placed once from two starts.
What does the pace shape suggest for race tactics?
A steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy pays, given the lack of an obvious leader and prevalence of held-up runners.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at the Curragh among those represented in the top five?
John Andrew Kinsella with a 12% strike rate from 34 runs for Terre De Vega.
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