5:30 Wolverhampton (AW)

The KTB Fit ranking

1. 1Mr Rocco KTB Selection53/100

   James Horton · Kaiya Fraser

   Family: half-brother to Karios (1 win from 5 runs). The dam has had 1 other runner, a winner.

   Mr Rocco is a newcomer whose pedigree supplies some encouragement, being a half-brother to Karios who won once from five starts while the dam has already produced another winner. James Horton’s yard posts a 19 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 58 runs, notably higher than their 10 percent at other tracks, and Kaiya Fraser takes the mount. The trainer and jockey combination shows a 2/14 (14%) record. By Pinatubo, he has no course win on record and no public form, so the assessment carries low data confidence and remains tentative, yet the yard’s local record and the family background keep him at the head of the KTB Fit scores.

2. 2Crown of Ivy52/100

   Form 1 · T. J. Kent · David Egan

   Family: half-brother to King Of Bears (2 wins from 15 runs). The dam has had 1 other runner, a winner.

   Crown of Ivy arrives with the benefit of a winning debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time. The yard’s 2 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 47 runs sits below their 13 percent elsewhere, though David Egan is a positive booking with a 13 percent record at the track from 370 rides. The combination is shown as 4/30 (13%). Unproven on Standard ground and with a low data confidence given the small sample, the trip remains an unknown. A front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace on limited evidence, Crown of Ivy could set the shape of the race if allowed an easy lead.

3. 3Wabil50/100

   Jack Jones · Hector Crouch

   Wabil is another debutant whose assessment rests on pedigree and sales background rather than any racecourse exposure. Jack Jones’s operation records a 15 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 144 runs, closely in line with their 12 percent at other tracks, and Hector Crouch is a strong rider here with an 18 percent strike rate from 481 rides. The trainer and jockey line reads 11/69 (16%). By Ten Sovereigns, he has no course win on record. With no public form the data confidence is low, yet the yard’s solid local record and the absence of any negative indicators keep him firmly in the mix among the principals.

4. 4Bibury Star50/100

   Richard Hughes · Billy Loughnane

   Family: half-brother to Calderon, a Group 3 winner (3 wins from 12 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 3 of them winners.

   Bibury Star is a newcomer with notable pedigree, a half-brother to the Group 3 winner Calderon and from a dam who has already produced three winners from seven runners to race. Richard Hughes has a 17 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 519 runs, above his 13 percent elsewhere, and Billy Loughnane is aboard with a 20 percent record at the venue from 863 rides. Their combined record is 15/87 (17%). By Cracksman, he has no course win on record. The complete lack of racecourse form leaves the picture short on hard data, but the family strength and the trainer’s healthy track record make him one of the more interesting debutants.

5. 5Break Some Rules47/100

   James Tate · Luke Morris

   Family: full brother to Jalaad (3 wins from 12 runs). The dam has had 7 other runners, 5 of them winners.

   Break Some Rules is yet another debutant, this time from a yard that operates at a 19 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 649 runs. A full brother to Jalaad who won three times from twelve starts, he comes from a dam who has produced five winners from seven runners. Luke Morris rides and the trainer-jockey combination shows 79/556 (14%). By Kodiac, he has no course win on record. With no racecourse form to examine the assessment carries low data confidence and his debut remains an open question, but the depth of the family and the trainer’s local record earn him a place in the top five on KTB Fit.

6. 6Prince Billy46/100

   Eve Johnson Houghton · Charles Bishop

   Prince Billy is a newcomer whose assessment is tentative given the absence of racecourse experience. Eve Johnson Houghton’s yard records an 11 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton in line with their overall record, he cost a useful sum as a yearling and comes from a family that has produced winners.

7. 7Mehen45/100

   Form 6 · Michael Bell · Callum Shepherd

   Family: half-sister to Atlantic City (1 win from 13 runs). The dam has had 2 other runners, 2 of them winners.

   Mehen showed only modest pace on debut and now drops to 7f for the second start. A half-sister to a modest winner, the yard has an 18 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 739 runs while Callum Shepherd has a 12 percent record here; he is a held-up type who usually produces his effort late.

8. 8Red Kateryna44/100

   Faye Bramley · Edward Greatrex

   Red Kateryna is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has a 0 percent strike rate from eight runs at Wolverhampton, so the assessment is tentative with low data confidence and rests mainly on pedigree and sales background.

9. 9Yellow Mission44/100

   Form 5 · Richard Hughes · Finley Marsh

   Family: the dam has had 1 other runner, not a winner.

   Yellow Mission showed only modest form when fifth on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f, which is an entirely fresh question. From a dam who has had just one other runner that failed to win, he is a prominent runner who usually races handily on or close to the lead.

10. 10Graceful Gracie42/100

    Mark Loughnane · Jonny Peate

    Family: half-sister to How Impressive (8 wins from 60 runs). The dam has had 5 other runners, 4 of them winners.

    Graceful Gracie is a newcomer whose half-sister How Impressive won eight times and whose dam has produced four winners from five other runners. Mark Loughnane’s yard records a 10 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 1,900 runs, above their 7 percent elsewhere, but low data confidence applies to this debutant.

11. 11Amandari37/100

    Form 5 · John & Thady Gosden · Robert Havlin

    Family: full brother to Spirit Gal, a Listed winner (2 wins from 8 runs). The dam has had 3 other runners, 2 of them winners.

    Amandari showed fair pace on debut but could only finish fifth in a useful maiden. The full brother to Listed winner Spirit Gal is bred to be better than that effort, now steps up in trip having dropped in class for a yard with a 25 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton; a held-up type, any market support would have to be noted.

12. 12Massa Go Go32/100

    John O'Shea · William Carson

    Family: the dam has had 3 other runners, none of them a winner.

    Massa Go Go is lightly raced with just one run, so judgement must be cautious. The dam has produced three other runners without a winner, the yard has a 5 percent strike rate at Wolverhampton from 531 runs which is below their record elsewhere, and this held-up type is stepping up in class.