Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.77).
Deterministic profile computed from 228 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 6 Nov 2026
The read
The record is strongest at Sedgefield (8.1%, n=37), clear of the yard's 4.4% baseline. The yard also reads well in Chase races (17.8%, n=45). The record reads poorly in Hurdle races — 1.2% over 169 runners, 3.2pts below the baseline.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 4.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.5%−2.9
n=66 · A/E 0.34 · £1 −61.50
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−4.4
n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−4.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−4.4
n=7 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −7.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−4.4
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
16.7%
n=6 · A/E 0.60 · £1 −1.50
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
3.4%−1.0
n=88 · A/E 0.76 · £1 −63.50
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 4.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
In Chase races17.8% vs 4.4% · n=45
With Ryan Day10% vs 4.4% · n=30
In Hurdle races1.2% vs 4.4% · n=169
With horses switching code8.6% vs 4.4% · n=35
At Sedgefield8.1% vs 4.4% · n=37
Off a 31-60-day break7% vs 4.4% · n=71
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle16921.2%−149.50
Chase45817.8%+17.75
Flat900%−9.00
NH Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good10254.9%−54.00
Soft5012%−45.50
Good to Soft3912.6%−33.00
Good to Firm1700%−17.00
Heavy17317.6%+6.75
Standard (AW)300%−3.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Hexham4112.4%−26.00
Sedgefield3738.1%−13.50
Newcastle2100%−21.00
Perth2000%−20.00
Kelso1715.9%−6.00
Carlisle13215.4%−0.25
Ayr1300%−13.00
Uttoxeter1119.1%−6.50
Cartmel1000%−10.00
Catterick800%−8.00
Musselburgh700%−7.00
Southwell6116.7%+5.00
Market Rasen6116.7%−1.50
Wetherby500%−5.00
Doncaster300%−3.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 514764.1%−93.00
Class 46723%−51.50
Class 6800%−8.00
Class 35120%−1.25
Class 211100%+8.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite8112.5%0.49−3.50
2nd–3rd fav2229.1%0.63−13.75
4th–6th fav6258.1%1.12−18.50
7th+ in betting13621.5%0.61−110.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m1f – 2m4f9433.2%−72.50
1m5f – 2m7034.3%−37.50
2m5f – 3m5523.6%−35.00
Over 3m9222.2%−0.75
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20081300%−13.00
20099111.1%+6.00
20101218.3%−1.00
20111616.3%−11.50
2012900%−9.00
2013100%−1.00
20141100%−11.00
20151815.6%−5.00
20161500%−15.00
20171119.1%−6.50
20182015%−11.00
20191300%−13.00
202017211.8%−2.25
20211100%−11.00
2022400%−4.00
202314214.3%−3.50
20241300%−13.00
2025800%−8.00
20261300%−13.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps174105.7%−91.75
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners7745.2%−41.50
11-13 runners7011.4%−65.50
14-16 runners4300%−43.00
5-7 runners3538.6%−11.50
2-4 runners2150%+1.75
17+ runners11100%+14.00
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 19 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 19 horses listed, 11 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Alan Swinbank (3); 8 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 18 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
7005870040027
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
10
Archived wins
£93,472
Prize money
2023
Best season · 2 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Kings Eclipse (IRE) — smarkets.com Northern Lights Staying Chase Series Final Handicap Chase Carlisle · Dec 2018 · Class 2
£21,679
Kings Eclipse (IRE) — Join Racing Tv Now Handicap Chase Carlisle · Dec 2020 · Class 3
£7,310
Kings Eclipse (IRE) — Annual Members Get Best Value Handicap Chase Kelso · Jan 2020 · Class 4
Progeny have won 12.4% of 5,883 runs since 2013 (750 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 15.5% from 296.
Xaar (GB)4.5% · 1–22
Progeny have won 6.1% of 2,429 runs since 2008 (218 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 10.7% from 122.
Coroner (IRE)0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 5.3% of 226 runs since 2008 (26 horses).
Cloudings (IRE)11.1% · 2–18
Progeny have won 10.5% of 3,887 runs since 2008 (309 horses). Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 14.6% from 411. Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 7.5% from 815.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 6 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 248 · newest first
The latest 50 of 248 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 28 May 2006 to 18 October 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Andrew Wilson's strike rate?
Andrew Wilson has won 10 of 228 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 4.4% (as at 6 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Andrew Wilson do best at?
Sedgefield by strike rate: 3 wins from 37 runners (8.1%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Andrew Wilson's Fair A/E?
0.77, from 227 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Andrew Wilson·SR 4.4%·A/E 0.77
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