What is David Brace's strike rate?

David Brace has won 38 of 423 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does David Brace do best at?

Worcester by strike rate: 8 wins from 57 runners (14%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for David Brace?

Connor Brace, with 229 runners since 2008 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (9.6%).

What is David Brace's Fair A/E?

1.02, from 421 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

David Brace

423 runners in the lifetime window · 82 individual horses

As at 30 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner 18 days ago 100% of runners over jumps

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

38–423

Wins / Runs

Strike rate

n=423

100 (24%)

Placed

1.02

Fair A/E

n=421 · 0.90 incl. margin

−10.84

£1 level stake

n=423 at SP · −2.6%

£373k

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 9% of them — level with the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.02).

Deterministic profile computed from 423 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 30 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jun–Jul Fresh horses: 9.9% Connor Brace: 9.6% from 229

The read

Debutants struggle at 2.3% (n=43, Fair A/E 0.50). Connor Brace rides 54% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (9.6%, A/E 0.99) — the market has that partnership priced right. The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (17.1%, n=76) and over 2m5f – 3m (14.4%, n=118). The record reads poorly in NH Flat races — 2.9% over 34 runners, 6.1pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) — 6 wins from 45 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jun–Jul.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 9% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

9.9%+0.9

n=111 · A/E 1.40 · £1 −45.87

New recruits · first run for the yard

7.1%−1.9

n=42 · A/E 1.13 · £1 −20.00

Debutants · first career start

2.3%−6.7

n=43 · A/E 0.50 · £1 −30.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.4%−1.6

n=27 · A/E 1.20 · £1 −11.75

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−9.0

n=10 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −10.00

When favourite

25.9%

n=27 · A/E 0.82 · £1 −9.80

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

8.9%−0.1

n=157 · A/E 1.18 · £1 −42.20

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

0%−9.0

n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 9% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

On last-time-out winners 26.3% vs 9% · n=38

Off a 31-60-day break 17.1% vs 9% · n=76

Over 2m5f – 3m 14.4% vs 9% · n=118

With debutants 2.3% vs 9% · n=43

With C&D winners 16.1% vs 9% · n=31

In NH Flat races 2.9% vs 9% · n=34

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Hurdle 258 22 8.5% +57.88

Chase 131 15 11.5% −39.05

NH Flat 34 1 2.9% −29.67

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good 194 19 9.8% +82.33

Good to Soft 82 6 7.3% −45.92

Soft 69 6 8.7% −25.75

Good to Firm 40 4 10% −9.50

Heavy 34 3 8.8% −8.00

Standard (AW) 3 0 0% −3.00

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chepstow 65 9 13.8% −6.00

Worcester 57 8 14% +135.71

Ffos Las 54 6 11.1% −26.80

Stratford 37 3 8.1% −21.50

Uttoxeter 29 2 6.9% +4.00

Newton Abbot 24 0 0% −24.00

Hereford 22 1 4.5% −20.50

Taunton 18 2 11.1% +8.00

Exeter 14 0 0% −14.00

Market Rasen 12 0 0% −12.00

Southwell 10 2 20% +4.00

Bangor-on-Dee 10 1 10% −4.50

Huntingdon 9 2 22.2% +3.75

Aintree 8 0 0% −8.00

Warwick 8 0 0% −8.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 5 165 16 9.7% −32.37

Class 4 161 14 8.7% +71.33

Class 3 39 4 10.3% −24.55

Class 2 30 3 10% +0.50

Class 6 17 1 5.9% −14.75

Class 1 11 0 0% −11.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 31 9 29% 0.96 −6.30

2nd–3rd fav 92 14 15.2% 0.87 −24.54

4th–6th fav 98 9 9.2% 1.34 −9.00

7th+ in betting 202 6 3% 1.18 +29.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header

78.9% completed · 389 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)

CodeRCompFURPUBDOth

Chase 131 69.5% 0 4 34 2 0

Hurdle 258 83.7% 3 0 38 0 1

Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) 45 6 21 24 Apr 26

Gats And Co (GB) 27 5 9 31 May 25

Classic Concorde (IRE)from Andrew McNamara 25 6 9 25 Feb 26

Colorado Doc (GB) 17 3 8 8 Apr 22

Watching Brief (IRE)from Christian Williams 16 1 6 27 Feb 22

Shanandoa (GB)from Brian Barr 13 2 6 27 Oct 21

Bajan Blu (GB) 13 1 4 28 May 15

Thatza Dazzler (GB)from Fergal O'Brien 11 1 4 30 May 24

Patsio (IRE)from J R Barry 11 1 3 29 Oct 19

Knight Blaze (GB) 11 0 0 16 Jul 14

Newmill Getaway (IRE)then Fergal O'Brien 10 1 4 19 May 24

Silver Token (GB) 9 2 5 25 Apr 14

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 82 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 1 time. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 31 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Fergal O'Brien (3) and James Joseph Mangan (3); 29 had their first archived run for this yard.

15 have since run for another yard, most often for Fergal O'Brien (2) and John Flint (2); 45 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

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A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderConnor Brace

54% of all rides
9.6% SR · A/E 0.99

RiderRWSR£1

Connor Brace 229 22 9.6% −66.64

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£390k

Prize money

2023

Best season · 7 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) — John Ayres Memorial Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Chepstow · Oct 2020 · Class 2

£15,698

Classic Concorde (IRE) — Coral Racing Club Join For Free Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Chepstow · Dec 2023 · Class 2

£15,609

Classic Concorde (IRE) — tote.co.uk Never Beaten By SP Handicap Hurdle Bangor-on-Dee · Oct 2023 · Class 4

£10,406

Notable horses

Pink Eyed Pedro (GB) Classic Concorde (IRE) Gats And Co (GB) Colorado Doc (GB) Moon Catcher (GB) Shanandoa (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Dr Massini (IRE) 14.1% · 14–99

Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.

Shantou (USA) 24% · 6–25

Progeny have won 13.6% of 7,825 runs since 2008 (539 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 20.3% from 158.

Bach (IRE) 4.3% · 1–23

Progeny have won 7.8% of 2,289 runs since 2008 (240 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 12.7% from 244.

Generous (IRE) 5.3% · 1–19

Progeny have won 10.7% of 3,332 runs since 2008 (251 horses).

Getaway (GER) 5.9% · 1–17

Progeny have won 11.3% of 10,951 runs since 2008 (1,029 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 23.3% from 133.

Rudimentary (USA) 6.3% · 1–16

Progeny have won 9.2% of 2,114 runs since 2008 (201 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 30 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 474 · newest first

The latest 50 of 474 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 3 January 2005 to 12 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

12 Oct 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison CopyBet Follow Us On X Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Soft · 9 ran 8th 50/1

25 Sep 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison CopyBet Support Safer Gambling Handicap Steeple ChaseClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 9 ran PU 28/1

20 Sep 26 Plumpton Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison Dominic Hill Accountants & Thorne Civil Engineers Mares' Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 16f · Good · 3 ran 3rd 9/2

04 Sep 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: Liam Harrison John Burke Mares' Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 1st 150/1

22 Jul 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: James Turner Colin Jones Memorial Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Div I)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 9 ran 9th 125/1

19 Jul 26 Stratford Ghost Pepper (IRE)J: James Turner Dave Shrader Novices' Limited Handicap Hurdle RaceClass 5 · 18.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 6th 18/1

17 Jun 26 Worcester Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison CopyBet BOG Now Royal Ascot Friday Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 5th 7/1

17 Jun 26 Worcester Galeforcechopper (GB)J: James Turner CopyBet Daily World Cup Profit Boost Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) (Div 2)Class 4 · 16f · Good · 8 ran 6th 125/1

17 May 26 Stratford Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Boss & The Hoggs Live On The 30th May Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good To Firm · 7 ran 4th 17/2

09 May 26 Warwick Roll A Dollar (GB)J: Liam Harrison Claverdon FC Have Done The Double Open NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16f · Good · 5 ran 5th 8/1

05 May 26 Hereford Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Wye Valley Skips Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Good · 9 ran PU 11/2

24 Apr 26 Chepstow Pink Eyed Pedro (GB)J: Mr James King Dunraven Bowl Pink Eyed Pedro 'Grassroots' Open Hunters' ChaseClass 5 · 23.5f · Good · 5 ran PU 9/1

22 Apr 26 Taunton Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Tristan Durrell Dave Criddle Travel Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 10 ran 2nd 15/2

09 Apr 26 Taunton Roll A Dollar (GB)J: Liam Harrison St Michael's Church Orchard Portman Open Maiden NH Flat Race (GBB Race)Class 5 · 16.5f · Good · 7 ran 3rd 9/4

04 Apr 26 Newton Abbot Ask A Sainte (GB)J: Finn Lambert South West Rail Solutions Ltd. 'National Hunt' Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race)Class 4 · 18.5f · Good To Soft · 11 ran 5th 12/1

24 Mar 26 Taunton Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison 4Racing Owners Club Charitable Syndicates Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 16.5f · Good · 13 ran 9th 11/1

25 Feb 26 Bangor-on-Dee Classic Concorde (IRE)J: Harry Atkins Legend, The Mogul, Chris Rowe Handicap HurdleClass 4 · 23f · Soft · 5 ran 2nd 9/2

13 Feb 26 Chepstow Mi Sueno (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Dunraven Handicap HurdleClass 5 · 19.5f · Soft · 11 ran PU 12/1

12 Feb 26 Leicester Applicationofcash (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Leicester Racecourse - Ideal Self-Hire Wedding Venue Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 16f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 20/1

26 Jan 26 Plumpton Applicationofcash (IRE)J: Liam Harrison Southern Cranes Handicap ChaseClass 5 · 17f · Soft · 5 ran 5th 5/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 12 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 1 run (won 0) · to 12 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is David Brace's strike rate?: David Brace has won 38 of 423 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 9% (as at 30 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does David Brace do best at?: Worcester by strike rate: 8 wins from 57 runners (14%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for David Brace?: Connor Brace, with 229 runners since 2008 — 54% of the total. That pairing has won 22 (9.6%).
What is David Brace's Fair A/E?: 1.02, from 421 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.