What is Francis-Henri Graffard's strike rate?

Francis-Henri Graffard has won 722 of 3,578 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 20.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Francis-Henri Graffard do best at?

Vichy by strike rate: 21 wins from 46 runners (45.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Francis-Henri Graffard?

M Barzalona, with 820 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 220 (26.8%).

Is Francis-Henri Graffard in form?

In the last 14 days: 23 runners, 5 winners, a strike rate of 21.7%. That is in line with the baseline of 20.2% since 2008.

What is Francis-Henri Graffard's Fair A/E?

1.13, from 3,497 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Francis-Henri Graffard

3,578 runners in the lifetime window · 900 individual horses

As at 3 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Non-runners: 2.1% of 578 declared in the last 365 days, counting all recorded withdrawals, including reserves. For context, a typical day across all racing ends with about 6.5% withdrawn (middle half 5.3–8.1% over 364 racing days). As at 3 Nov 2026.

Won yesterday Last runner yesterday 100% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2011→)

from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it

722–3,578

Wins / Runs

20.2%

Strike rate

n=3,578

1,591 (45%)

Placed

1.13

Fair A/E

n=3,497 · 0.96 incl. margin

+5.15

£1 level stake

n=3,567 at SP · +0.1%

£41.2m

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

26.7%

KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 190 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 20% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.13). The edge shows sharpest with horses returning fresh: 22% off breaks of two months or more (891 runs).

Deterministic profile computed from 3,578 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 3 Nov 2026

KTB at a glance Fires Jan–Apr Fresh horses: 21.8% 39.2% when favourite M Barzalona: 26.8% from 820 Sends off the favourite in 27% of races

The read

The record is strongest at Vichy (45.7%, n=46), clear of the yard's 20.2% baseline. A horse having headgear put back on after a bare run has been a poor signal at 11.9% (n=42, Fair A/E 0.78). Horses returning fresh after 61+ days are the standout value angle: 21.8% strikes only just above baseline, but Fair A/E 1.23 and +139.41 to a £1 stake over 891 runners — a record the market has persistently underpriced. M Barzalona rides 23% of the entries and beats the yard's average (26.8% vs 20.2%, A/E 1.12) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. 220 Group and Graded wins sit in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp (FR) (Oct 2026, £2,857,000). The stable star of the record: The Revenant (GB) — 9 wins from 21 runs for the yard. Seasonally, the yard fires Jan–Apr.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 20.2% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

21.8%+1.6

n=891 · A/E 1.23 · £1 +139.41

New recruits · first run for the yard

13.7%−6.5

n=131 · A/E 0.88 · £1 −38.30

Debutants · first career start

17.9%−2.3

n=771 · A/E 1.05 · £1 −120.56

First-time headgear · true-first definition

17.1%−3.1

n=385 · A/E 1.03 · £1 −55.04

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

11.9%−8.3

n=42 · A/E 0.78 · £1 +1.36

When favourite

39.2%

n=954 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −18.01

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

16.7%−3.5

n=251 · A/E 1.19 · £1 +10.00

Group / Graded races · pattern & listed

19.4%−0.8

n=1,135 · A/E 1.13 · £1 +101.72

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 20.2% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

At Vichy 45.7% vs 20.2% · n=46

With Leonard Plommee 41.9% vs 20.2% · n=31

With Stephane Breux 6.1% vs 20.2% · n=49

With Christophe-Patrice Lemaire 6.7% vs 20.2% · n=45

With M Barzalona 26.8% vs 20.2% · n=820

With Cristian Demuro 10.5% vs 20.2% · n=57

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Good to Soft 921 181 19.7% −88.08

Soft 905 189 20.9% +46.59

Standard (AW) 791 163 20.6% −13.98

Good 599 121 20.2% +35.60

Heavy 314 61 19.4% +23.29

Good to Firm 46 6 13% +0.93

Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Chantilly 990 227 22.9% +146.99

Deauville 699 106 15.2% −152.94

Longchamp (FR) 639 127 19.9% +40.19

Saint-Cloud 637 118 18.5% −107.69

Maisons-Laffitte (FR) 115 15 13% −40.70

Compiegne 53 12 22.6% +10.09

Ascot 51 7 13.7% +20.98

Clairefontaine 49 12 24.5% −0.56

Vichy 46 21 45.7% +41.61

Lyon Parilly 44 10 22.7% −10.20

Fontainebleau 26 3 11.5% +6.25

Dieppe 25 9 36% −8.49

La Teste De Buch 21 6 28.6% −1.60

Toulouse 20 5 25% +5.20

Craon 19 2 10.5% −11.40

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 1 1,151 221 19.2% +86.97

Class 2 42 12 28.6% +2.12

Class 3 10 6 60% +1.36

Class 4 2 0 0% −2.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 996 384 38.6% 1.16 −30.28

2nd–3rd fav 1,157 223 19.3% 1.09 −70.07

4th–6th fav 877 76 8.7% 0.97 −124.30

7th+ in betting 537 36 6.7% 1.69 +229.80

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Fils Prodigue (FR) 25 2 7 9 Jul 18

Tantpispoureux (IRE) 24 5 11 6 Nov 22

Baz (FR)then Derek Shaw 24 4 8 28 Oct 17

True Romance (FR)then M Boutin 22 6 12 20 Jan 23

The Revenant (GB)from Hugo Palmer 21 9 17 22 Oct 23

Maximum Aurelius (FR) 21 5 10 14 May 20

Le Nomade (IRE) 20 5 10 14 Feb 25

Karar (GB) 20 4 11 28 Oct 18

Snaad (GB)then Joel Phelippon 19 3 7 16 Dec 17

Silver Quartz (GB)from Archie Watson 18 6 8 19 May 22

Vespera (IRE) 18 3 8 11 Nov 19

Calandagan (IRE) 16 8 15 17 Oct 26

Showing the 60 most-raced of the 900 horses sent out in this window — each ran at least 10 times. Horses with fewer runs aren't listed; search finds any horse since 2005. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 60 horses listed, 3 arrived from another yard in our archive; 57 had their first archived run for this yard.

13 have since run for another yard, most often for M Boutin (2); 47 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Steady

5 from 23 21.7% · +1.5pts vs baseline

Last 14 days21.7%

Lifetime base20.2%

Shown only when the 14-day window is large enough to mean anything (n≥15). A cold run renders the same card with a quiet badge — never hidden.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

242724242018261618172017

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderM Barzalona

23% of all rides
26.8% SR · A/E 1.12

RiderRWSR£1

M Barzalona 820 220 26.8% −30.79

Pierre-Charles Boudot 516 133 25.8% +90.05

C. Soumillon 366 82 22.4% −46.70

Stephane Pasquier 213 39 18.3% −32.20

Maxime Guyon 148 31 20.9% +3.70

H Journiac 143 18 12.6% +33.70

C Lecoeuvre 136 25 18.4% +1.60

Ronan Thomas 126 17 13.5% +96.60

Olivier Peslier 106 20 18.9% +2.00

Tony Piccone 81 12 14.8% −37.30

Marie Velon 68 11 16.2% −10.70

Luca Carboni 63 11 17.5% +28.20

Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2011→

722

Archived wins

220

Pattern / graded wins

£41.2m

Prize money

2026

Best season · 142 wins

Daryz (FR) — Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Group 1) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2026 · Group 1

£2,857,000

Daryz (FR) — Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (3yo+ No Geldings) (Grande Course) (Turf) Longchamp (FR) · Oct 2025 · Group 1

£2,361,157

Calandagan (IRE) — King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes (Group 1) Ascot · Jul 2025 · Group 1

£850,650

Notable horses

The Revenant (GB) Daryz (FR) Calandagan (IRE) Goliath (GER) True Romance (FR) Silver Quartz (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Siyouni (FR) 22.1% · 77–349

Progeny have won 13% of 8,350 runs since 2014 (978 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 457.

Dubawi (IRE) 27% · 34–126

Progeny have won 18.4% of 12,977 runs since 2009 (1,530 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 9.8% from 429.

Frankel (GB) 35.2% · 43–122

Progeny have won 18% of 7,529 runs since 2016 (880 horses). Weakest on Heavy going: 12.8% from 329. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 12.3% from 269.

Lope De Vega (IRE) 17.4% · 19–109

Progeny have won 13.8% of 12,208 runs since 2014 (1,107 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 9.4% from 960.

Wootton Bassett (GB) 21.9% · 23–105

Progeny have won 13% of 5,687 runs since 2015 (790 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 16% from 162.

Sea The Stars (IRE) 30.3% · 27–89

Progeny have won 15.7% of 9,970 runs since 2013 (1,115 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 18.9% from 1,503. Weakest on Heavy going: 9.2% from 456. Weakest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 11.5% from 139.

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 3 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 3,578 · newest first

The latest 50 of 3,578 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 17 December 2011 to 2 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

02 Nov 26 Fontainebleau (FR) Purple Lion (IRE)J: Hugo Boutin Prix De La Seine Et MarneClass 2 · 8f · Soft · 16 ran 1st 9/4F

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Synaran (IRE)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Prix Irish RiverClass 1 · 7f · Standard · 13 ran 11th 14/1

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Vignelli (FR)J: Pierre-Charles Boudot Prix ZeddaanClass 1 · 7f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 5/4F

31 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Katsioux (GB)J: Marie Velon Prix La Bamba6.5f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 12/1

30 Oct 26 Lyon Parilly (FR) Paiute (IRE)J: Marie Velon Prix Du Grand CampClass 1 · 12f · Very Soft · 5 ran 5th 100/30

30 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) I Am Myself (USA)J: Stephane Pasquier Prix De La Rocque9.5f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 6/1

28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Scribe Of Wisdom (GB)J: Hugo Boutin Prix Ici Maine (Prix Des Hunaudieres)8f · Heavy · 11 ran 5th 15/8F

28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Azimpour (IRE)J: Clement Lecoeuvre Grand Prix Du MansClass 1 · 9.5f · Heavy · 8 ran 5th 6/4F

28 Oct 26 Le Mans (FR) Stellia (FR)J: Marie Velon Prix Du Salon Du Cheval D'angers (Prix D'yvre-l'eveque)8f · Heavy · 14 ran 7th 7/1

27 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Ledesma (GB)J: Mickael Barzalona Prix D'aubigny9.5f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 5/4F

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Tales Of The Heart (IRE)J: H Journiac Prix de Seine-et-Oise (Group 3)1 · 6f · Heavy · 18 ran 8th 50/1

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Kimi Rey (GB)J: C Lecoeuvre Prix de Seine-et-Oise (Group 3)1 · 6f · Heavy · 18 ran 7th 20/1

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Valasara (FR)J: M Barzalona Prix de Seine-et-Oise (Group 3)1 · 6f · Heavy · 18 ran 1st 10/1

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Extreme Dream (AUS)J: Mickael Barzalona Criterium De VitesseClass 1 · 5.5f · Heavy · 13 ran 10th 100/30F

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Shandiyana (FR)J: Mickael Barzalona Darley Prix Des Reservoirs (Group 3)Class 1 · 8f · Heavy · 6 ran 5th 15/8F

26 Oct 26 Chantilly (FR) Julian Schnabel (IRE)J: Mickael Barzalona Prix IsonomyClass 1 · 9f · Standard · 7 ran 1st 8/11F

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Ame D'or (IRE)J: Mickael Barzalona Prix de l'ElevageClass 2 · 12.5f · Soft · 16 ran 12th 9/2

25 Oct 26 Saint-Cloud (FR) Zakkan (GB)J: Mickael Barzalona Criterium International (Group 1)Class 1 · 8f · Soft · 7 ran 5th 17/2

23 Oct 26 Lyon-La Soie (FR) Candizal (FR)J: Dorian Provost Prix Droit Divin12f · Standard · 11 ran 5th 6/4F

22 Oct 26 Deauville (FR) Valika (FR)J: Leonard Plommee Prix De Putanges9.5f · Standard · 11 ran 6th 4/1F

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 17 Oct 2026: fastest on KTB Speed in 1 run (won 0) · to 17 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Francis-Henri Graffard's strike rate?: Francis-Henri Graffard has won 722 of 3,578 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 20.2% (as at 3 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Francis-Henri Graffard do best at?: Vichy by strike rate: 21 wins from 46 runners (45.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Francis-Henri Graffard?: M Barzalona, with 820 runners since 2008 — 23% of the total. That pairing has won 220 (26.8%).
Is Francis-Henri Graffard in form?: In the last 14 days: 23 runners, 5 winners, a strike rate of 21.7%. That is in line with the baseline of 20.2% since 2008.
What is Francis-Henri Graffard's Fair A/E?: 1.13, from 3,497 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.