What is Tim McCarthy's strike rate?

Tim McCarthy has won 17 of 469 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.

Which course does Tim McCarthy do best at?

Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 172 runners (7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.

Who rides most for Tim McCarthy?

Amy Baker, with 50 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (4%).

What is Tim McCarthy's Fair A/E?

0.59, from 469 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.

Trainer profile

Tim McCarthy

469 runners in the lifetime window · 44 individual horses

As at 15 Oct 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily

Last runner Apr 2021 92% of runners on the flat

Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)

No runners in the last 5 seasons — showing the lifetime record, from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it.

17–469

Wins / Runs

3.6%

Strike rate

n=469

85 (18%)

Placed

0.59

Fair A/E

n=469 · 0.50 incl. margin

−313.67

£1 level stake

n=469 at SP · −66.9%

£91,821

Prize money (window)

Strike by season

KTB Yard Profile

Sent out around 30 runners a season, almost all on the flat, winning with 4% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.59).

Deterministic profile computed from 469 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 15 Oct 2026

KTB at a glance Fired Mar–May Amy Baker: 4% from 50

The read

The record is strongest at Lingfield (AW) (7%, n=172), clear of the yard's 3.6% baseline. The market has consistently overbet runners with a claiming rider up: 2.4% strike, Fair A/E 0.47 and −91.50 to a £1 stake over 126 runners — those runners underperformed what the price implied. Amy Baker rode 11% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (4%, A/E 0.76). The yard also read well off a 8-14-day break (6.8%, n=88). The record read poorly off a break of 180+ days — 0% over 31 runners, 3.6pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 0.17 across 102 runners (1% strike, −93.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperformed what the price implied. Seasonally, the yard fired Mar–May.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 3.6% baseline

Fresh · 61+ days off

3.1%−0.5

n=96 · A/E 0.74 · £1 −66.00

New recruits · first run for the yard

0%−3.6

n=25 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −25.00

Debutants · first career start

10%+6.4

n=10 · A/E 3.15 · £1 −5.00

First-time headgear · true-first definition

7.7%+4.1

n=13 · A/E 1.56 · £1 −4.00

Headgear returns · back on after a bare run

0%−3.6

n=16 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −16.00

When favourite

10%

n=10 · A/E 0.49 · £1 −5.67

Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle

2.4%−1.2

n=126 · A/E 0.47 · £1 −91.50

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 3.6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline

With Hayley Turner 12.2% vs 3.6% · n=41

At Lingfield (AW) 7% vs 3.6% · n=172

Off a 8-14-day break 6.8% vs 3.6% · n=88

At Kempton (AW) 0.9% vs 3.6% · n=111

Off a break of 180+ days 0% vs 3.6% · n=31

Off a 31-60-day break 1% vs 3.6% · n=102

Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1

Flat 430 15 3.5% −292.67

Hurdle 27 2 7.4% −9.00

Chase 8 0 0% −8.00

NH Flat 4 0 0% −4.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1

Standard (AW) 311 14 4.5% −178.67

Good to Firm 68 1 1.5% −63.00

Good 57 1 1.8% −45.00

Good to Soft 14 0 0% −14.00

Soft 10 1 10% −4.00

Firm 8 0 0% −8.00

Heavy 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1

Lingfield (AW) 172 12 7% −65.17

Kempton (AW) 111 1 0.9% −102.50

Chelmsford (AW) 28 1 3.6% −11.00

Folkestone 27 0 0% −27.00

Lingfield 24 1 4.2% −19.00

Fontwell 14 2 14.3% +4.00

Brighton 12 0 0% −12.00

Windsor 10 0 0% −10.00

Goodwood 8 0 0% −8.00

Sandown 6 0 0% −6.00

Epsom Downs 6 0 0% −6.00

Yarmouth 5 0 0% −5.00

Newmarket 5 0 0% −5.00

Nottingham 5 0 0% −5.00

Stratford 4 0 0% −4.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1

Class 6 224 8 3.6% −164.17

Class 5 142 6 4.2% −81.50

Class 4 50 1 2% −38.00

Class 7 43 1 2.3% −26.00

Class 3 7 1 14.3% −1.00

Class 2 3 0 0% −3.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1

Favourite 13 2 15.4% 0.79 −4.67

2nd–3rd fav 50 3 6% 0.40 −34.50

4th–6th fav 141 9 6.4% 0.85 −52.50

7th+ in betting 265 3 1.1% 0.37 −222.00

Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first

HorseRWPlLast ran

Understory (USA)from Mark Johnston 72 4 14 26 Jan 19

Vinces (GB) 58 4 17 17 Feb 12

Cavalry Guard (USA)from Jim Boyle 43 1 9 23 Jan 14

Ghost Train (IRE)from Mark Johnston 34 2 15 1 Apr 17

Tightrope (IRE) 24 0 1 20 Feb 10

Ma Ridge (GB)then Sarah-Jayne Davies 23 0 1 2 Jul 09

Jimmy Ryan (IRE) 19 3 8 30 Jun 12

Sunshine Always (IRE)from William Haggas · then Michael Attwater 16 0 4 7 Sep 10

Cave of The Giant (IRE) 16 2 2 19 Aug 10

Kinsman (IRE) 12 1 3 1 Nov 09

Ziefhd (GB)from David Evans 10 0 1 28 Nov 13

Taqaat (USA)from Mark Johnston · then Stephen Hughes 10 0 2 22 Aug 12

All 44 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.

Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 44 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Mark Johnston (6) and Gary Moore (2); 17 had their first archived run for this yard.

12 have since run for another yard, most often for Noel Chance (2) and Richard Price (2); 32 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime

JFMAMJJASOND

10266100400005

A flat yard: the season runs Mar–Oct. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first

Go-to riderAmy Baker

11% of all rides
4% SR · A/E 0.76

RiderRWSR£1

Amy Baker 50 2 4% −20.00

Hayley Turner 41 5 12.2% +9.00

Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→

Archived wins

£142k

Prize money

2008

Best season · 4 wins

In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.

Cave of The Giant (IRE) — Crown Racing 'Your Best Bet' Handicap Hurdle Fontwell · Jan 2008 · Class 3

£5,704

Cave of The Giant (IRE) — T Ware Developments Ltd Handicap Hurdle Fontwell · Jan 2008 · Class 4

£3,803

Vinces (GB) — Nigel Collison Fuels Maiden Stakes Lingfield · May 2008 · Class 5

£3,238

Notable horses

Understory (USA) Vinces (GB) Kinsman (IRE) Jimmy Ryan (IRE) Ghost Train (IRE) Cave of The Giant (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip

Forestry (USA) 4.9% · 4–82

Progeny have won 8.8% of 353 runs since 2008 (31 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 13.5% from 171.

Lomitas (GB) 6.9% · 4–58

Progeny have won 10.7% of 1,870 runs since 2008 (163 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.6% from 122. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 319. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 6.7% from 120.

Officer (USA) 2.3% · 1–43

Progeny have won 7.4% of 349 runs since 2008 (20 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 10.5% from 209.

Holy Roman Emperor (IRE) 5.9% · 2–34

Progeny have won 10.3% of 11,862 runs since 2008 (948 horses). Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 5.9% from 305.

Tumbleweed Ridge (GB) 0% · 0–32

Progeny have won 5.4% of 336 runs since 2008 (30 horses). Strongest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 9.5% from 148.

Refuse To Bend (IRE) 0% · 0–24

Progeny have won 9.8% of 4,868 runs since 2008 (320 horses).

Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 15 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 737 · newest first

The latest 50 of 737 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 January 2005 to 10 April 2021.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP

10 Apr 21 Lingfield (AW) Mindurownbusiness (IRE)J: Cieren Fallon Follow At The Races On Twitter Selling StakesClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran F 11/1

06 Mar 21 Lingfield (AW) Mindurownbusiness (IRE)J: Martin Dwyer Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' HandicapClass 3 · 8f · Standard · 7 ran 7th 125/1

05 Feb 21 Lingfield (AW) Mindurownbusiness (IRE)J: Martin Dwyer Bombardier 'March To Your Own Drum' Claiming StakesClass 6 · 7f · Standard · 8 ran 8th 28/1

19 Feb 20 Kempton (AW) W G Grace (IRE)J: Selma Grage Racing TV Apprentice HandicapClass 7 · 6f · Standard To Slow · 11 ran 9th 80/1

05 Sep 19 Lingfield W G Grace (IRE)J: Thomas Greatrex Idris Morgan Memorial Apprentice HandicapClass 6 · 7f · Good To Firm · 17 ran 17th 50/1

26 Jan 19 Chelmsford City (AW) Understory (USA)J: Martin Dwyer Black Notley HandicapClass 7 · 10f · Standard · 16 ran 16th 66/1

15 Nov 18 Kempton (AW) White Tower (IRE)J: Charles Bishop 32Red.com Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 12 ran 11th 100/1

25 Oct 18 Chelmsford City (AW) White Tower (IRE)J: Luke Morris Double Delight Hat-Trick Heaven At totesport.com HandicapClass 6 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 10th 66/1

24 Oct 18 Chelmsford City (AW) Understory (USA)J: Ryan Tate Bet toteplacepot At totesport.com HandicapClass 7 · 10f · Standard · 14 ran 7th 66/1

23 Oct 18 Kempton (AW) W G Grace (IRE)J: Martin Dwyer 32Red Casino Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 8f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 13th 66/1

14 Sep 18 Salisbury W G Grace (IRE)J: Ryan Tate Signs In Motion Ltd HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Good To Firm · 13 ran 13th 66/1

06 Jun 18 Kempton (AW) White Tower (IRE)J: Franny Norton 100% Profits Boost At 32redsport.com HandicapClass 5 · 7f · Standard To Slow · 13 ran 13th 100/1

24 Mar 18 Lingfield (AW) W G Grace (IRE)J: Martin Dwyer 32red.com HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 15/2

17 Feb 18 Kempton (AW) W G Grace (IRE)J: Martin Dwyer Matchbook Betting Exchange HandicapClass 6 · 6f · Standard · 8 ran 7th 14/1

16 Feb 18 Lingfield (AW) Understory (USA)J: Martin Dwyer Betway Handicap (Div 2)Class 6 · 12f · Standard · 9 ran 9th 50/1

13 Jan 18 Lingfield (AW) Understory (USA)J: Robert Havlin Betway Handicap (Div 1)Class 6 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 10th 33/1

28 Dec 17 Lingfield (AW) Annabella (GB)J: Robert Havlin Play Slots At sunbets.co.uk/vegas Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 9 ran 5th 100/1

17 Dec 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Annabella (GB)J: Ryan Tate Merry Christmas From Chelmsford City Racecourse HandicapClass 7 · 8f · Standard · 10 ran 9th 50/1

15 Dec 17 Chelmsford City (AW) Understory (USA)J: Sophie Ralston Bet toteplacepot At betfred.com All-Weather 'Hands And Heels' Apprentice HandicapClass 7 · 10f · Standard · 13 ran 9th 14/1

06 Dec 17 Lingfield (AW) Annabella (GB)J: Ryan Tate Play Slots At sunbets.co.uk/vegas EBF Maiden StakesClass 5 · 8f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Tim McCarthy's strike rate?: Tim McCarthy has won 17 of 469 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 3.6% (as at 15 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tim McCarthy do best at?: Lingfield (AW) by strike rate: 12 wins from 172 runners (7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Tim McCarthy?: Amy Baker, with 50 runners since 2008 — 11% of the total. That pairing has won 2 (4%).
What is Tim McCarthy's Fair A/E?: 0.59, from 469 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.