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Trainer profile

Patrick J Duffy

196 runners in the lifetime window · 10 individual horses
As at 2 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner yesterday 97% of runners over jumps
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
10–196
Wins / Runs
5.1%
Strike rate
n=196
41 (21%)
Placed
0.92
Fair A/E
n=196 · 0.70 incl. margin
−101.00
£1 level stake
n=196 at SP · −51.5%
£154k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
0%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 10 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 5% of them — a touch below the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 0.92).

Deterministic profile computed from 196 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
The read

The yard also reads well over 2m5f – 3m (11.4%, n=70) and off a 15-30-day break (9.6%, n=73). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 32 runners, 5.1pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard over 2m1f – 2m4f: Fair A/E 0.39 across 88 runners (2.3% strike, −73.50 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. One Group or Graded win sits in the archive record — the biggest prize the yard has landed: the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle at Naas (Oct 2013, £17,875). The stable star of the record: Courtncatcher (IRE) — 7 wins from 74 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 5.1% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
0%−5.1
n=22 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −22.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−5.1
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−5.1
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−5.1
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−5.1
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
When favourite
0%
n=2 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −2.00
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
4.9%−0.2
n=82 · A/E 0.77 · £1 −46.50
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
12.5%+7.4
n=8 · A/E 2.69 · £1 +0.00

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 5.1% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m5f – 3m 11.4% vs 5.1% · n=70
Off a 15-30-day break 9.6% vs 5.1% · n=73
Over 1m5f – 2m 0% vs 5.1% · n=32
With a new jockey booking 2.1% vs 5.1% · n=96
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 2.3% vs 5.1% · n=88
At Cork 2.7% vs 5.1% · n=37
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle 162 9 5.6% −80.00
Chase 20 1 5% −7.00
NH Flat 8 0 0% −8.00
Flat 6 0 0% −6.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Good 90 6 6.7% −31.50
Soft 59 4 6.8% −22.50
Good to Soft 18 0 0% −18.00
Heavy 17 0 0% −17.00
Good to Firm 11 0 0% −11.00
Firm 1 0 0% −1.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Cork 37 1 2.7% −28.00
Tramore 24 2 8.3% −8.00
Clonmel 21 0 0% −21.00
Killarney 18 1 5.6% −3.00
Limerick 16 0 0% −16.00
Gowran Park 15 1 6.7% −8.50
Tipperary 12 1 8.3% −5.50
Punchestown 10 0 0% −10.00
Thurles 7 0 0% −7.00
Listowel 6 0 0% −6.00
Kilbeggan 5 0 0% −5.00
Wexford 5 0 0% −5.00
Navan 4 0 0% −4.00
Roscommon 4 1 25% +5.00
Galway 3 0 0% −3.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 1 8 1 12.5% +0.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 7 0 0% 0.00 −7.00
2nd–3rd fav 30 4 13.3% 1.23 −1.00
4th–6th fav 46 4 8.7% 1.25 −7.00
7th+ in betting 113 2 1.8% 0.61 −86.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Jumping record

completion over obstacles · same window as header
86.8% completed · 182 obstacle runners (chases & hurdles)
CodeRCompFURPUBDOth
Chase 20 80% 1 2 1 0 0
Hurdle 162 87.7% 1 2 16 1 0
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Courtncatcher (IRE) 74 7 22 20 May 18
Courtin Bb (IRE) 66 3 16 19 Sep 21
Maxicourt (IRE) 21 0 3 1 Nov 26
Quins Court (IRE) 13 0 0 4 Jun 22
Niyda Pistol (IRE) 10 0 0 13 Jun 09
Sefarina (IRE)from Jack W Davison 4 0 0 15 May 24
High King's Court (GB) 3 0 0 6 Sep 12
Ballycatcher (IRE) 2 0 0 6 Aug 12
Turtlecourt (IRE) 2 0 0 15 Apr 08
Bachaniyda (IRE) 1 0 0 17 Feb 11
All 10 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 10 horses listed, 1 arrived from another yard in our archive; 9 had their first archived run for this yard.

None of them has a later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

Current form

significance-gated

Last 14 days

Small sample
0 from 2
Only 2 runners in the last 14 days — too few to read against the baseline (gate: n≥15). The card states the sample and stays neutral.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
000001241108014
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
RiderRWSR£1
Andrew J McNamara 22 6 27.3% +37.50
Phillip Enright 21 0 0% −21.00
Conor Brassil 9 2 22.2% +12.00
Chris Timmons 9 1 11.1% −1.00
Davy Russell 8 0 0% −8.00
Donal McInerney 6 0 0% −6.00
Sean Flanagan 6 0 0% −6.00
A E Lynch 5 0 0% −5.00
Brian Hayes 5 0 0% −5.00
John Cullen 5 0 0% −5.00
Hugh Morgan 4 0 0% −4.00
Mikey Hamill 4 1 25% +2.50
Muted rows are under 30 rides.

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
10
Archived wins
1
Pattern / graded wins
£158k
Prize money
2013
Best season · 4 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Courtncatcher (IRE) — Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle (grade C) Naas · Oct 2013 · Grade C
£17,875
Courtncatcher (IRE) — Mcsweeney Arms Hotel Handicap Hurdle (0-140) Killarney · Aug 2014
£15,275
Courtncatcher (IRE) — Martinstown Opportunity Handicap Chase (0-123) Leopardstown · Dec 2016
£11,378
Notable horses
Courtncatcher (IRE) Courtin Bb (IRE)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Catcher In The Rye (IRE) 9.2% · 7–76
Progeny have won 8.9% of 2,570 runs since 2008 (239 horses).
Brian Boru (GB) 4.5% · 3–66
Progeny have won 11% of 4,124 runs since 2009 (285 horses).
Maxios (GB) 0% · 0–21
Progeny have won 11.6% of 2,149 runs since 2017 (270 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 8.5% from 317. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 7.9% from 191.
Dylan Thomas (IRE) 0% · 0–13
Progeny have won 10.5% of 7,491 runs since 2011 (533 horses). Strongest at trips under 6f (all codes): 17.7% from 192.
Pistolet Bleu (IRE) 0% · 0–10
Progeny have won 11.2% of 1,371 runs since 2008 (131 horses).
New Bay (GB) 0% · 0–4
Progeny have won 14.3% of 3,991 runs since 2020 (426 horses). Weakest at trips under 6f (all codes): 10.8% from 102.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 213 · newest first

The latest 50 of 213 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 23 May 2005 to 1 November 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
01 Nov 26 Cork (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Sean O'Keeffe Ballymaloe Foods Handicap Hurdle16f · Good To Yielding · 21 ran 15th 20/1
22 Oct 26 Clonmel (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Mr M J McGrath Kilclooney Woods (Q.R.) Handicap Hurdle17f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 11th 9/1
13 Oct 26 Punchestown (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Conor Smithers William Hill Challenge Series Handicap Hurdle (Div I)20f · Good · 15 ran UR 6/1
19 Sep 26 Navan (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Millbrook Food Group 100 Years Celebration Handicap Hurdle (Div I)19f · Good · 15 ran 8th 13/2
22 Aug 26 Killarney (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Conor Smithers Adare Manor Opportunity Handicap Hurdle20f · Good · 15 ran 3rd 5/1C
13 Aug 26 Tramore (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Daniel King Bluegrass Horse Feeds Handicap Hurdle20.5f · Good · 16 ran 5th 9/2C
03 Aug 26 Cork (IRE) Maxicourt (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally Follow Us On Instagram Handicap Hurdle (Div I)17f · Good · 16 ran 7th 2/1F
10 Jul 26 Cork Maxicourt (IRE)J: Richard Deegan Kelkab Ltd. Handicap Hurdle (0-100)17f · Good · 23 ran 3rd 28/1
29 May 26 Tramore Maxicourt (IRE)J: Danny Mullins Tramore Handicap Hurdle (0-100)21.5f · Good · 16 ran PU 10/1
10 May 26 Cork Maxicourt (IRE)J: Kevin Healy Farm And Industrial Spares Mallow Handicap Hurdle (Div 2)19f · Good · 15 ran 9th 12/1
20 Apr 26 Tramore Maxicourt (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler O'Driscolls Irish Whiskey Handicap Hurdle (0-100)16.5f · Good To Yielding · 16 ran 8th 17/2
20 Dec 25 Thurles Maxicourt (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally William Hill Each Way Extra Challenge Series Maiden Hurdle (Div 2)16f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 10th 40/1
07 Dec 25 Cork Maxicourt (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald BAR 1 Betting Handicap Hurdle20f · Soft To Heavy · 24 ran 14th 25/1
23 Nov 25 Cork Maxicourt (IRE)J: Shane Fitzgerald Join Racing TV Now With A Free Trial Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding To Soft · 16 ran 5th 66/1
02 Nov 25 Cork Maxicourt (IRE)J: Donagh Meyler Paddy Power From The Horse's Mouth Podcast Maiden Hurdle (Div 1)16f · Yielding · 14 ran 7th 28/1
09 Oct 25 Tramore Maxicourt (IRE)J: Michael Kenneally www.tramoreraces.ie Maiden Hurdle16f · Yielding · 8 ran 2nd 13/8F
25 Sep 25 Listowel Maxicourt (IRE)J: Mr J W Hendrick Kevin McManus Bookmaker Flat Race16f · Good To Yielding · 18 ran 7th 100/1
21 Aug 25 Killarney Maxicourt (IRE)J: Mr Derek O'Connor Rally Masters Ireland Flat Race17f · Good · 7 ran 5th 28/1
28 Jul 25 Galway Maxicourt (IRE)J: Mr D L Queally Monami Construction Flat Race16.5f · Good · 19 ran 13th 80/1
17 Jul 25 Killarney Maxicourt (IRE)J: Mr D L Queally Kerry Drains Flat Race17f · Yielding To Soft · 13 ran 6th 100/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

Quick answers

What is Patrick J Duffy's strike rate?
Patrick J Duffy has won 10 of 196 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 5.1% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Patrick J Duffy do best at?
Cork by strike rate: 1 wins from 37 runners (2.7%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Is Patrick J Duffy in form?
Too few runners in the last 14 days to read — 2 runners, which is not a sample we will draw a conclusion from.
What is Patrick J Duffy's Fair A/E?
0.92, from 196 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 2 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).