Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.06).
Deterministic profile computed from 465 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 2 Nov 2026
KTB at a glanceJack Doyle: 9.9% from 142Claiming riders: 7.7%
The read
It is weakest at Worcester (0% over 31 runners) — the widest gap in the record. Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 2.6% (n=117, Fair A/E 0.58). Jack Doyle rides 31% of the entries and edges the yard's average (9.9% vs 6.7%, A/E 1.26) — the partnership beats the margin-free market read. The yard also reads well off a 31-60-day break (11.8%, n=76). The record reads poorly over 1m5f – 2m — 0% over 47 runners, 6.7pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Earcomesthedream (IRE) — 10 wins from 81 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 6.7% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
2.6%−4.1
n=117 · A/E 0.58 · £1 −59.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
0%−6.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
Debutants · first career start
0%−6.7
n=14 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −14.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
10%+3.3
n=20 · A/E 2.18 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.7
n=9 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −9.00
When favourite
57.1%
n=14 · A/E 2.24 · £1 +15.87
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
7.7%+1.0
n=195 · A/E 1.23 · £1 −38.25
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6.7% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
On last-time-out winners22.6% vs 6.7% · n=31
Over 1m5f – 2m0% vs 6.7% · n=47
In NH Flat races0% vs 6.7% · n=38
Off a break of 180+ days0% vs 6.7% · n=38
At Worcester0% vs 6.7% · n=31
Off a 31-60-day break11.8% vs 6.7% · n=76
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle280176.1%−55.75
Chase142149.9%−58.88
NH Flat3800%−38.00
Flat500%−5.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good188115.9%−83.25
Good to Soft9644.2%−36.00
Soft8567.1%−6.50
Good to Firm68710.3%−30.38
Heavy21314.3%+5.50
Standard (AW)600%−6.00
Firm100%−1.00
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Towcester10698.5%−1.50
Uttoxeter5846.9%−25.88
Warwick4624.3%−37.50
Stratford4449.1%−26.25
Hereford4137.3%−22.50
Southwell3239.4%+16.00
Worcester3100%−31.00
Ludlow2627.7%+16.00
Huntingdon1900%−19.00
Chepstow12216.7%+17.50
Cheltenham700%−7.00
Leicester700%−7.00
Taunton600%−6.00
Wolverhampton (AW)500%−5.00
Plumpton4250%+2.50
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5226188%−14.50
Class 4176105.7%−95.38
Class 33738.1%−21.75
Class 62200%−22.00
Class 2200%−2.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Class 7100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite19947.4%2.03+13.87
2nd–3rd fav5946.8%0.44−39.00
4th–6th fav125108%1.12−17.50
7th+ in betting26283.1%1.19−115.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
2m5f – 3m289269%−11.63
Over 3m6945.8%−52.00
2m1f – 2m4f5511.8%−42.00
1m5f – 2m4700%−47.00
1m – 1m1f300%−3.00
1m2f – 1m4f200%−2.00
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
200864710.9%−12.25
20095048%−14.00
201062711.3%−8.88
20116300%−63.00
201236411.1%+15.00
20134224.8%−6.00
20142314.3%−16.50
201527311.1%+31.00
20162100%−21.00
20171500%−15.00
20181400%−14.00
2019500%−5.00
20201000%−10.00
202110330%+5.00
20221000%−10.00
2023800%−8.00
2024500%−5.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps322257.8%−74.00
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
11-13 runners14385.6%−71.00
8-10 runners134129%−25.88
14-16 runners7867.7%−7.25
5-7 runners7134.2%−47.00
17+ runners2913.4%+0.00
2-4 runners10110%−6.50
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 31 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 31 horses listed, 8 arrived from another yard in our archive; 23 had their first archived run for this yard.
1 has since run for another yard; 30 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
106861059071244
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2005→
34
Archived wins
£211k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 7 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Tisfreetdream (IRE) — Lambrini Peach Handicap Hurdle Uttoxeter · Mar 2009 · Class 3
£6,505
Tisfreetdream (IRE) — Ben Morgan Is 18 Today Maiden Hurdle Stratford · Oct 2008 · Class 3
£6,337
Tisfreetdream (IRE) — Warwick Racecourse Novices' Chase Warwick · Mar 2010 · Class 3
Progeny have won 10.9% of 16,543 runs since 2008 (1,456 horses). Strongest on Standard (AW) going: 18.1% from 105.
Marignan (USA)13% · 10–77
Progeny have won 6.3% of 554 runs since 2008 (63 horses).
Overbury (IRE)3.8% · 2–52
Progeny have won 10.7% of 4,657 runs since 2008 (423 horses).
Passing Glance (GB)0% · 0–46
Progeny have won 12.4% of 3,555 runs since 2008 (293 horses). Strongest on Heavy going: 15.8% from 222. Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 7.2% from 290. Strongest beyond 3m (all codes): 15.5% from 110. Weakest over 6f – 7f (all codes): 8.8% from 171.
Midnight Legend (GB)14.3% · 3–21
Progeny have won 14.2% of 8,311 runs since 2008 (494 horses).
Roselier (FR)15.8% · 3–19
Progeny have won 9.1% of 374 runs since 2008 (71 horses).
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 2 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 640 · newest first
The latest 50 of 640 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 7 January 2005 to 5 November 2024.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Peter Pritchard's strike rate?
Peter Pritchard has won 31 of 465 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6.7% (as at 2 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Peter Pritchard do best at?
Southwell by strike rate: 3 wins from 32 runners (9.4%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Peter Pritchard?
Jack Doyle, with 142 runners since 2008 — 31% of the total. That pairing has won 14 (9.9%).
What is Peter Pritchard's Fair A/E?
1.06, from 463 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Peter Pritchard·SR 6.7%·A/E 1.06
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