Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%".
KTB Yard Profile
Sends out around 20 runners a season, almost all over hurdles and fences, winning with 7% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.12).
Deterministic profile computed from 340 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 29 Oct 2026
KTB at a glanceConor Ring: 6% from 83Claiming riders: 8%
The read
Conor Ring rides 24% of the entries and matches the yard's average almost exactly (6%, A/E 0.80). The yard also reads well off a 8-14-day break (14.3%, n=56). The record reads poorly in Chase races — 0% over 30 runners, 7.4pts below the baseline. The market has consistently overbet the yard off a 31-60-day break: Fair A/E 0.25 across 71 runners (1.4% strike, −60.00 to a £1 stake) — runners there underperform what the price implies. The stable star of the record: Bella Haze (GB) — 8 wins from 18 runs for the yard.
Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.
Yard patterns
the angles behind the record · vs 7.4% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
6.2%−1.2
n=65 · A/E 1.53 · £1 −21.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
16.7%+9.3
n=6 · A/E 4.51 · £1 +4.00
Debutants · first career start
3.7%−3.7
n=27 · A/E 1.31 · £1 −1.00
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−7.4
n=8 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −8.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−7.4
n=4 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −4.00
When favourite
30%
n=10 · A/E 1.00 · £1 −3.15
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
8%+0.6
n=287 · A/E 1.15 · £1 −64.65
Group / Graded races · pattern & listed
0%−7.4
n=1 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −1.00
Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 7.4% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, not tips. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races.
Notable angles
vs their own baseline
With David Prichard15.6% vs 7.4% · n=32
Off a 8-14-day break14.3% vs 7.4% · n=56
Off a 31-60-day break1.4% vs 7.4% · n=71
In Chase races0% vs 7.4% · n=30
In Class 42.3% vs 7.4% · n=133
With a new jockey booking2.8% vs 7.4% · n=109
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.
Record by conditions
same window as header
Race type
TypeRWSR£1
Hurdle264228.3%−78.15
NH Flat4636.5%+10.00
Chase3000%−30.00
Going
GoingRWSR£1
Good9655.2%−12.50
Good to Soft931010.8%−6.90
Soft8555.9%−39.00
Heavy4736.4%−36.25
Good to Firm19210.5%−3.50
Courses
CourseRWSR£1
Ffos Las7345.5%−53.90
Chepstow60610%−16.75
Hereford4548.9%+2.50
Ludlow2613.8%−5.00
Taunton2600%−26.00
Exeter2414.2%−16.00
Newton Abbot2114.8%−14.50
Worcester20315%+27.00
Wincanton1100%−11.00
Warwick9222.2%+8.50
Bangor-on-Dee7114.3%−1.00
Uttoxeter6233.3%+20.00
Towcester400%−4.00
Leicester300%−3.00
Cheltenham200%−2.00
Class
ClassRWSR£1
Class 5152127.9%−54.00
Class 413332.3%−114.40
Class 325624%+31.25
Class 623313%+33.00
Class 26116.7%+7.00
Class 1100%−1.00
Market position
In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite12325%0.90−5.15
2nd–3rd fav52917.3%1.20+0.50
4th–6th fav9877.1%1.01−24.50
7th+ in betting17863.4%1.31−69.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.
Distance
DistanceRWSR£1
1m5f – 2m12264.9%−54.25
2m1f – 2m4f10776.5%−46.40
2m5f – 3m941010.6%+2.00
Over 3m17211.8%+0.50
By season
By seasonRWSR£1
20087342.9%+49.00
20091516.7%−10.50
201025520%+29.25
20111119.1%−6.50
20122200%−22.00
20131800%−18.00
20159222.2%+5.00
20163725.4%−22.50
20173525.7%−17.50
20181815.6%−7.00
20192528%−11.00
20201800%−18.00
202137410.8%−4.90
20222214.5%−12.50
2023900%−9.00
20241100%−11.00
20251300%−13.00
20268112.5%+2.00
Handicaps
HandicapsRWSR£1
Handicaps203209.9%−26.15
Field size
Field sizeRWSR£1
8-10 runners10898.3%−40.40
11-13 runners10365.8%−27.00
14-16 runners70710%+13.00
5-7 runners3725.4%−24.00
17+ runners1800%−18.00
2-4 runners4125%−1.75
Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.
Chases and hurdles only — bumpers have no obstacles, so completion is not a question there. F fell · UR unseated rider · PU pulled up · BD brought down · Oth covers refusals, slip-ups, run-outs and the rare disqualification. Non-runners are excluded throughout. Rows under n=30 are shown faded. A descriptive record, not a tip.
All 33 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next
Of the 33 horses listed, 5 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Venetia Williams (2); 28 had their first archived run for this yard.
4 have since run for another yard; 29 have no later run for another yard in our archive.
Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.
When the yard fires
strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
3810813140130063
A jumps yard: the season runs Oct–Apr. Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".
Career highlights
lifetime archive, 2006→
28
Archived wins
£188k
Prize money
2010
Best season · 5 wins
This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Bella Haze (GB) — toteswinger Betting Handicap Hurdle Uttoxeter · May 2010 · Class 2
£15,209
Bella Haze (GB) — Totescoop6 Handicap Hurdle Uttoxeter · Mar 2010 · Class 3
£7,514
Bella Haze (GB) — 'jumprite' Handicap Hurdle Hereford · Mar 2010 · Class 3
Progeny have won 10.3% of 4,684 runs since 2008 (466 horses). Weakest over 1m2f – 1m4f (all codes): 5.5% from 145.
Rainbow High (GB)8.8% · 5–57
Progeny have won 6.6% of 560 runs since 2008 (48 horses). Strongest over 2m5f – 3m (all codes): 12.9% from 132. Weakest over 2m1f – 2m4f (all codes): 3.2% from 158.
Nomadic Way (USA)9.1% · 3–33
Progeny have won 9.8% of 799 runs since 2008 (70 horses).
Chaddleworth (IRE)0% · 0–25
Progeny have won 0% of 66 runs since 2008 (11 horses).
Progeny have won 11.5% of 7,358 runs since 2008 (605 horses).
Dr Massini (IRE)5.3% · 1–19
Progeny have won 10.6% of 4,942 runs since 2008 (406 horses). Strongest on Good to Firm going: 14% from 421.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 29 Oct 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.
The record
latest 50 of 346 · newest first
The latest 50 of 346 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 15 February 2006 to 5 May 2026.
Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).
Quick answers
What is Phillip Dando's strike rate?
Phillip Dando has won 25 of 340 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 7.4% (as at 29 October 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Phillip Dando do best at?
Chepstow by strike rate: 6 wins from 60 runners (10%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
Who rides most for Phillip Dando?
Conor Ring, with 83 runners since 2008 — 24% of the total. That pairing has won 5 (6%).
What is Phillip Dando's Fair A/E?
1.12, from 340 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Phillip Dando·SR 7.4%·A/E 1.12
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