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Trainer profile

Tony Forbes

334 runners in the lifetime window · 27 individual horses
As at 12 Nov 2026 · KTB archive: 2005–present, updated daily
Last runner 14 days ago
Last 5 seasons Lifetime (2008→)
from 1 Jan 2008 — the aggregate floor: every horse in the window has a complete captured career behind it
20–334
Wins / Runs
6%
Strike rate
n=334
67 (20%)
Placed
1.05
Fair A/E
n=334 · 0.91 incl. margin
−111.93
£1 level stake
n=334 at SP · −33.5%
£135k
Prize money (window)
Strike by season
18.8%
KTB Yard Profile

Sends out around 20 runners a season, across both codes, winning with 6% of them — beating the margin-free market read across the lifetime window (Fair A/E 1.05).

Deterministic profile computed from 334 archived runs (lifetime window) · updated 12 Nov 2026
KTB at a glance Claiming riders: 6.7%
The read

Horses returning fresh after 61+ days have been a poor signal at 1.7% (n=60, Fair A/E 0.44). The record reads poorly over 2m1f – 2m4f — 2.1% over 47 runners, 3.9pts below the baseline. The stable star of the record: Nolecce (GB) — 6 wins from 46 runs for the yard.

Written from the figures on this page — every claim carries its sample. Descriptive, not a tip.

Yard patterns

the angles behind the record · vs 6% baseline
Fresh · 61+ days off
1.7%−4.3
n=60 · A/E 0.44 · £1 −49.00
New recruits · first run for the yard
11.1%+5.1
n=27 · A/E 1.81 · £1 −4.43
First-time headgear · true-first definition
0%−6.0
n=6 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −6.00
Headgear returns · back on after a bare run
0%−6.0
n=21 · A/E 0.00 · £1 −21.00
When favourite
80%
n=5 · A/E 2.48 · £1 +8.07
Claiming riders · a claimer in the saddle
6.7%+0.7
n=255 · A/E 1.17 · £1 −61.43

Each tile is the record in that situation vs the 6% baseline — descriptive splits with the sample always shown, for you to weigh. Tiles under 30 runs render muted. Headgear figures use the true-first definition (first gear appearance in the captured career); returns are gear back on after a bare run. Claiming riders are runs where the booked rider carried a weight claim. Group / Graded covers pattern and listed races. The same beliefs, tested across every yard and every GB and Irish race since 2005: Racing myths.

Notable angles

vs their own baseline
Over 2m1f – 2m4f 2.1% vs 6% · n=47
Off a 61-180-day break 2.3% vs 6% · n=43
With horses switching code 3.2% vs 6% · n=62
With William Cox 3.1% vs 6% · n=32
On Soft going 3.2% vs 6% · n=31
Descriptive splits ranked by divergence × sample — insight, not instruction. Every angle carries its N; nothing under 30 runs qualifies. Rows within 2pts of the baseline appear only when the market-relative read (Fair A/E) diverges, and show it.

Record by conditions

same window as header

Race type

TypeRWSR£1
Flat 224 13 5.8% −74.43
Hurdle 91 6 6.6% −25.50
Chase 19 1 5.3% −12.00

Going

GoingRWSR£1
Standard (AW) 174 10 5.7% −46.68
Good 70 4 5.7% −30.50
Soft 31 1 3.2% −12.00
Good to Soft 28 2 7.1% −13.75
Good to Firm 19 1 5.3% −11.00
Heavy 12 2 16.7% +2.00

Courses

CourseRWSR£1
Wolverhampton (AW) 133 7 5.3% −25.43
Uttoxeter 82 5 6.1% −23.50
Southwell (AW) 41 3 7.3% −21.25
Nottingham 23 2 8.7% −4.00
Leicester 18 0 0% −18.00
Southwell 16 1 6.3% −6.00
Haydock 5 1 20% −1.75
Bangor-on-Dee 3 0 0% −3.00
Stratford 3 0 0% −3.00
Doncaster 3 0 0% −3.00
Huntingdon 2 1 50% +2.00
Market Rasen 2 0 0% −2.00
Warwick 1 0 0% −1.00
Worcester 1 0 0% −1.00
Aintree 1 0 0% −1.00

Class

ClassRWSR£1
Class 6 163 9 5.5% −61.25
Class 5 123 9 7.3% −28.68
Class 4 42 2 4.8% −16.00
Class 3 5 0 0% −5.00
Class 7 1 0 0% −1.00

Market position

In the bettingRWSRA/E£1
Favourite 7 4 57.1% 1.97 +6.07
2nd–3rd fav 21 1 4.8% 0.32 −17.00
4th–6th fav 112 10 8.9% 1.16 −7.00
7th+ in betting 194 5 2.6% 0.95 −94.00
Fair A/E per band is the tell: near 1.00 the market had it priced right; well above, the wins came where the market didn't expect them.

Rows below n=30 are shown faded — a small sample is a fact, not a trend. Every figure carries its N.

Horses trained

same window as header · most-raced first
HorseRWPlLast ran
Nolecce (GB)from Richard Guest 46 6 14 2 Oct 16
Medieval Bishop (IRE)from Mark Walford 40 1 9 20 Jun 18
Chef De Troupe (FR)from Dr Richard Newland 35 4 10 22 Jul 25
Tingo In The Tale (IRE)from Sophie Leech 35 3 7 14 Jul 21
Benissimo (IRE)from Dan Skelton 20 0 1 25 Oct 18
Fleursals (GB)from Tom Symonds 18 0 3 25 Apr 23
Excellent News (IRE)from J W Hills 18 0 3 20 Sep 14
Hollins (GB)from Micky Hammond 17 1 4 22 Feb 15
Fashionelle (IRE)from Fergal O'Brien 16 1 7 28 Apr 26
Rose Light (GB)from Gemma Tutty · then Jennie Candlish 12 0 2 2 Sep 25
Sweet Dime (GB)from Jedd O'Keeffe 11 0 0 20 Nov 22
Spec Of Light (GB)from David Loughnane 9 2 4 19 Oct 26
All 27 horses sent out in this window. Runs, wins and places only: a strike rate or a return on a handful of runs is noise, so none is quoted per horse — each horse's full record is on its own page.
Where they came from · where they went next

Of the 27 horses listed, 27 arrived from another yard in our archive, most often from Paul Webber (2) and Sue Smith (2).

4 have since run for another yard; 23 have no later run for another yard in our archive.

Read from each listed horse's whole archived career (2005 onwards), not only this window, and counted over the horses listed above, not the whole string. “First archived run” means our archive holds nothing earlier, not that the horse was unraced. A horse with no later run elsewhere may still be here, be off the track, or have run somewhere our archive does not cover — none of that is asserted.

When the yard fires

strike by month, lifetime
JFMAMJJASOND
50041556133946
Muted months are small samples (under 30 runs) — read them with the caution they deserve.

Jockey bookings

same window · biggest samples first
Go-to riderRob Hornby
13% of all rides
6.8% SR · A/E 1.02
RiderRWSR£1
Rob Hornby 44 3 6.8% +9.00
William Cox 32 1 3.1% −9.00
Muted rows are under 30 rides and sit behind "Show all".

Career highlights

lifetime archive, 2005→
20
Archived wins
£137k
Prize money
2026
Best season · 3 wins
In our archive from its very first year (2005), so this career almost certainly began earlier than our record does. The figures above count 2005 onwards only — what the archive holds, not a full-career total. This card is the full archive census (2005→); the statistics in the header aggregate from 2008 — the floor that guarantees every horse a complete captured career — so this card can legitimately show more wins than the header.
Chef De Troupe (FR) — Scott Mills Race Night 15th June Handicap Hurdle Uttoxeter · May 2024 · Class 4
£4,066
Fashionelle (IRE) — Best Odds Guaranteed At BetMGM Fillies' Novice Stakes Wolverhampton (AW) · Jan 2025 · Class 5
£3,942
Hollins (GB) — Quicksilver Slots Play 500 Roulette Handicap Chase Uttoxeter · Dec 2013 · Class 4
£3,925
Notable horses
Nolecce (GB) Chef De Troupe (FR) Tingo In The Tale (IRE) Spec Of Light (GB) Medieval Bishop (IRE) Hollins (GB)

Sires in the string

progeny record · win % by ground and trip
Reset (AUS) 13% · 6–46
Progeny have won 8.4% of 1,388 runs since 2008 (99 horses). Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 12% from 208.
Bachelor Duke (USA) 2.5% · 1–40
Progeny have won 7.8% of 1,605 runs since 2008 (109 horses). Strongest on Good to Soft going: 11.2% from 143.
Air Chief Marshal (IRE) 11.4% · 4–35
Progeny have won 8.7% of 1,985 runs since 2014 (190 horses). Weakest on Standard (AW) going: 5.2% from 672. Strongest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 14.6% from 267. Weakest over 1m – 1m1f (all codes): 5.3% from 565.
Oratorio (IRE) 8.6% · 3–35
Progeny have won 10.6% of 5,063 runs since 2009 (370 horses). Weakest on Good to Soft going: 7.3% from 455.
Beneficial (GB) 0% · 0–20
Progeny have won 10.4% of 17,047 runs since 2008 (1,155 horses).
Excellent Art (GB) 0% · 0–18
Progeny have won 9.9% of 4,555 runs since 2011 (298 horses). Weakest over 1m5f – 2m (all codes): 5.8% from 451.
Top line: the yard's own record with each sire's runners (win %, wins–runs), same window as the header; faded under 30 runs. Beneath it: every run by that sire's progeny in our archive since 2008, as at 12 Nov 2026 — what they have done, not a forecast. A going or a distance is named only where at least 100 progeny runs sit 3 or more points from the sire's own win rate. Distance bands cover Flat and jumps together.

The record

latest 50 of 369 · newest first

The latest 50 of 369 archived runners, newest first. The full record runs from 8 January 2005 to 29 October 2026.

DateCourseHorseRaceFinishSP
29 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Edwardtheninth (GB)J: Gina Mangan Midnite Ain't Your Grandad's Bookie Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 11th 9/1
19 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Rose Dawes bettingsites.co.uk Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 5/4F
08 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Edwardtheninth (GB)J: William Cox Get Raceday Ready Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 12 ran 8th 11/2
06 Oct 26 Southwell (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Gina Mangan bettingsites.co.uk Each Way Extra Places Handicap StakesClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 1st 11/2
17 Sep 26 Southwell (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Mr Cameron Hillhouse Download The At The Races App Novice Amateur Jockeys' Handicap Stakes (Riders Who Have Ridden 3 Winners Or Fewer At Start Of Season)Class 6 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 3rd 9/2
31 Aug 26 Southwell (AW) Edwardtheninth (GB)J: Gina Mangan Book The Bistro In Seasons Restaurant Handicap StakesClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 6 ran 1st 10/1
14 Jul 26 Leicester Spec Of Light (GB)J: Rob Hornby Nelson Restaurant For Classic Raceday Dining Handicap StakesClass 6 · 12f · Good To Firm · 6 ran 4th 12/1
02 Jul 26 Nottingham Spec Of Light (GB)J: Finlay Bassett Wildwest Beer Festival 4th July HandicapClass 6 · 10f · Good To Firm · 9 ran 8th 28/1
11 May 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Rob Hornby Advance Price Monday Racing For 13 HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 9 ran 8th 25/1
30 Apr 26 Southwell (AW) Hiccups (GB)J: Mr Cameron Hillhouse Download The At The Races App Amateur Jockeys' HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 11th 11/1
28 Apr 26 Southwell (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: Gina Mangan Conference & Events At Southwell Racecourse HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 11 ran 8th 5/1
28 Apr 26 Southwell (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Gina Mangan Come Racing For Free 18th June HandicapClass 6 · 12f · Standard · 10 ran 5th 16/1
15 Apr 26 Southwell (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: Finlay Bassett Book The Bistro In Sherwood Restaurant HandicapClass 5 · 14f · Standard · 8 ran 6th 18/1
02 Apr 26 Southwell (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Gina Mangan Create Your Bet Builders At Midnite HandicapClass 5 · 11f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 11/1
31 Mar 26 Wolverhampton (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: William Cox Midnite, Building The Future Of Betting HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 10 ran 7th 25/1
28 Feb 26 Southwell (AW) Spec Of Light (GB)J: Gina Mangan Make The Move To Midnite HandicapClass 6 · 11f · Standard · 12 ran 2nd 18/1
20 Nov 25 Southwell (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: William Cox Midnite Building The Future Of Betting HandicapClass 6 · 14f · Standard · 11 ran 3rd 8/1
03 Nov 25 Southwell (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: Rob Hornby Midnite: Built For 2025 Not 2005 HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 10 ran 2nd 4/1
18 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: William Cox Genting Casino Wolverhampton HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 9 ran 7th 8/1
06 Oct 25 Wolverhampton (AW) Fashionelle (IRE)J: William Cox Sky Sports Racing Sky 415 HandicapClass 6 · 16.5f · Standard · 11 ran 2nd 16/1

Drawn from the whole archive (2005 onwards), so it can include runs outside the window the header statistics cover. Non-runners are not listed. A finish shown in letters is a non-completion (F fell · UR unseated · PU pulled up · BD brought down).

KTB’s figures

the forward record · since 5 Oct 2026

KTB’s figures on this yard’s runners since 6 Oct 2026: the KTB Selection in 2 runs (won 2) · to 19 Oct 2026.

Each pick was a KTB figure’s choice before the off — the published KTB Selection, the top-rated horse on KTB Rating, the fastest on KTB Speed — settled against the result the next morning and never worked out again; “did not run” is counted apart. GB and Irish races only. A record of weeks so far: read it as a count, not a verdict.

Quick answers

What is Tony Forbes's strike rate?
Tony Forbes has won 20 of 334 runners since 2008, a strike rate of 6% (as at 12 November 2026). Figures are computed from our own results archive.
Which course does Tony Forbes do best at?
Southwell (AW) by strike rate: 3 wins from 41 runners (7.3%) since 2008. Read from the 15 courses with the most runners on the same basis, and only those with at least 30 — a small sample cannot top the list, and a rarely-visited course is not in the comparison.
What is Tony Forbes's Fair A/E?
1.05, from 334 runners with a computed fair probability since 2008. Fair A/E compares actual wins with a margin-stripped market expectation, so 1.00 is par: above it the wins came at bigger prices than the margin-free market implied, below it they did not.
Fair A/E compares wins with a margin-stripped market expectation. Favourite-heavy samples — top yards, leading riders — naturally read a few points warm, so 1.05 means "beat the margin-free market read", not "the market underrates this by 5%". Three sample sizes are reported and never blended: runs (n), the ROI basis (n at SP), and the fair-A/E basis (n with a computed fair probability).

Strike rate is wins over all runs (n). ROI is £1 level stakes at SP over runs with a parseable price (n at SP). Fair A/E is wins over margin-stripped market expectation, over runs with a computed fair probability (n fair). The three Ns can legitimately differ and are always shown. Figures as at 12 November 2026, computed from our own results archive (2005 onwards; aggregates from 2008).