4:15 Doncaster
This Pertemps Network Handicap Stakes is a competitive Class 2 event over a mile at Doncaster on good ground, featuring a field of 17 runners where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top end. The numbers highlight a clutch of useful performers with strong trainer records at the track, though recent form is mixed across the board and several hold-up types could be favoured if the anticipated strong pace materialises. Overall the KTB assessments point to a race where course familiarity, trip suitability and yard form at Doncaster will carry significant weight.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners present the pace shape is strongly positive and a strong gallop looks likely, raising the possibility of the leaders folding late on. Several principals including Cash, Mezcala, Fifth Column and Bullet Point are habitual hold-up performers who will be looking to come from off the pace, while prominent racers and front-runners such as River King, Scoville, Moonfall and Blue Courvoisier will set or track the speed. The key question is whether the strong pace collapses in the final furlong, handing the advantage to those racing off the speed in a race where late closers could dominate.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Cash KTB Selection67/100
Cash is a useful performer who has run well at this track before, finishing second on his only visit. He has a solid record at this trip and on good ground, though his most recent effort was poor after a break. The yard holds a 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 222 runs with an A/E of 1.2, while Silvestre De Sousa adds an obvious plus with his own 13% strike rate at the track from 457 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 13 in a race where the strong pace could suit those coming from off the speed. His overall profile suggests he can be competitive once again in a race run to suit his run-style.
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2Mezcala66/100
Mezcala is a useful performer with a solid record and looks well suited by the return to 1m having won twice at the trip. He has already won on this track from his only visit and has placed twice from three runs on good ground. The yard fires at a 16% strike rate here from 49 runs while George Bass has a 13% strike rate at Doncaster from 23 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 14 which is the clear negative in a race where the strong pace could favour those coming from the rear. Overall he has the ability and course record to go well if he overcomes the wide draw.
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3Fifth Column64/100
Fifth Column is a useful performer who has won four times over this trip from nine attempts and looks well suited by the distance again. He has a solid record on good ground with one win and a placing from three runs while the yard maintain a strong 23% strike rate at Doncaster from 166 runs. Recent form is a bit patchy and this is the first run here for the four-year-old, who is drawn low in stall 2. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be suited if the strong pace collapses late on. The Gosden stable's record here adds plenty of encouragement to his claims.
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4Bullet Point62/100
Bullet Point is a useful performer who arrives in solid nick after two placed efforts. William Haggas has a 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 527 runs while Tom Marquand is aboard, and the horse has already won four times at this trip from 11 attempts. Ground is fine with a win and two places from five runs on good. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 9 in a race where the strong pace could play to his strengths. His recent placed form suggests he can be a major player once more.
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5Mister Winston61/100
Mister Winston is a useful performer who has won four times at this trip from 12 attempts and handles good ground well with two wins and four places from six runs. He ran poorly when last seen at this track though and his recent form has been patchy with a string of lesser efforts mixed in. The yard has a solid 15% strike rate here from 450 runs, though the jockey has a 7% strike rate at Doncaster from 97 rides. Typically settling in midfield from stall 17, he will need to bounce back from that last run here if he is to figure prominently.
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6Blue Courvoisier58/100
Blue Courvoisier is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a third in his last two starts. He has already won twice at this trip and handles good ground, though the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal. Clive Cox has an 11% strike rate here from 316 runs while Rossa Ryan is aboard.
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7Storm Star56/100
Storm Star is a useful performer who has run well at this track once before when finishing third. He has won three times at this trip and is proven on good ground, though his recent form has been patchy with a string of lesser efforts mixed in. The yard has a solid record here and the high data confidence backs a fair level of ability.
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8Moonfall56/100
Moonfall is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placings from his last four starts. He has already won over this trip on good ground and looks ready to build on a solid second last time. Trainer's modest record at the track is a slight negative.
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9River King54/100
River King is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already won over today's trip and was placed on his only visit to Doncaster, while he has also handled good ground. The step back up to 1m asks a fresh question but the balance of his record suggests he should cope.
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10Ebt's Guard52/100
Ebt's Guard is a useful performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, placing on four of his last six starts. He has run just once at Doncaster and finished eighth, while the yard's modest 4% strike-rate here from 25 runs adds little encouragement. Stays the trip well with four wins at a mile and has shown he handles good ground.
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11Checkandchallenge51/100
Checkandchallenge is a useful performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. Has placed here before and won at this trip in the past though both his course and distance records are modest overall. Trainer's modest 5% strike-rate at Doncaster adds little encouragement.
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12Treasure Time51/100
Treasure Time is a fair performer who ran respectably when fourth over course and distance on his only visit to Doncaster. He has a win at today's 1m trip but is dropping back in distance after his latest effort over 1m1f, while his record on good ground shows he stays competitive without winning. The yard hold a solid 12% strike rate at the track from 59 runs.
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13Henlein51/100
Henlein is a useful performer who has not won for a long time and arrives in ordinary recent form. He steps up to 1m for the first time in a while having been placed at the trip without success, while he is competitive on good ground having placed twice from six starts. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Doncaster from a large sample is noted.
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14Scoville51/100
Scoville is a useful performer who has run creditably on several occasions without winning lately. Steps up to a trip he has won over twice from five starts, though his three runs on good ground have produced no placed efforts. Haggas maintains a 17% strike rate at Doncaster from 527 runs while Tudhope is aboard for the first time here.
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15Al Mubhir47/100
Al Mubhir is a useful performer who has run to form on his last two starts but finished only fifth when tried here on his sole visit. He has won twice on good ground and twice at this trip, though his overall strike-rate is modest. Trainer Kevin Ryan has a 7% strike-rate from 901 runs at Doncaster while jockey Tom Eaves has limited course experience.
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16Inspired45/100
Inspired is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick with three wins from his last five starts and a clear ability to handle this trip having won four times from nine attempts. He has placed on good ground without winning and makes his first visit to Doncaster where the trainer operates at a 9% strike rate. Jockey Jack Nicholls is 0-11 at the track.
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17Pinatubo's Legacy43/100
Pinatubo's Legacy is a fair performer on the balance of his four runs, winning on debut before two solid placed efforts and then a lesser show last time. He steps up to an untested 1m today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. The trainer operates at a 9% strike rate from 23 runs at Doncaster.
KTB verdict
Cash is the KTB Selection. A useful performer with previous placed form at this track on his only visit, he has a solid record at the trip and on good ground while the trainer's strong record at Doncaster and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa are both positives. His hold-up run-style is well suited to the likely strong pace that could collapse late on. The main dangers are headed by Mezcala, who has already won here and looks well suited by the return to a mile, Fifth Column with the powerful Gosden yard behind him, and Bullet Point who arrives in solid recent form for the Haggas stable.
KTB Selection Cash
This is the narrative read of the 4:15 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Doncaster results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record among the principals?
Mezcala has won here from his only visit while Cash has finished second on his only visit; the others have either not run here or finished unplaced.
How does the strong pace shape affect the hold-up horses?
The strong pace could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses such as Cash, Mezcala, Fifth Column and Bullet Point who usually produce their effort late.
What is the trainer strike rate at Doncaster for the yard of the selection Cash?
David Simcock has a 17% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.2 from 222 runs.
Which runners are likely to set or track the early pace?
Blue Courvoisier, River King and Scoville are front-runners or prominent racers while Moonfall is usually prominent.
Which horse is making its first visit to Doncaster and steps up in trip with first-time headgear?
Pinatubo's Legacy is making its first visit to Doncaster, steps up to an untested 1m and is fitted with first-time headgear.
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