2:00 Ayr
This Class 5 5f handicap at Ayr on good to soft ground features a maximum field of 21, with the KTB numbers highlighting a group of largely modest performers. Great Profit tops the Fit ratings on 64 and is the selection, though several others sit close behind on figures between 58 and 55. The race is notable for the lack of any obvious pace pressure, which could allow the lone leader to dictate terms.
How the race shapes up
With a lone-leader pace shape carrying high confidence, one horse is expected to bowl along in front with little to challenge early. The vast majority of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who will be produced with late efforts. The key question is whether the uncontested leader can build up an unassailable advantage that the closers, racing on good to soft ground, will struggle to overcome in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Great Profit KTB Selection64/100
Great Profit is a modest performer who has been consistent this year and arrives in decent form after a win and two placed efforts in his last three starts. He has been placed both times at Ayr yet is unproven on good to soft ground and now drops back to 5f for the first time since early in the season. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Ayr from a small sample of two runs while the jockey's 7% strike rate from 192 rides here adds little confidence. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will be towards the rear in a race where the leader may not come back. Recent form of 822213 underlines his reliability at this level even if the trip and ground pose questions.
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2Thunderstorm Katie58/100
Thunderstorm Katie is a modest performer who has won three times at Ayr from nine runs and knows her way around this track. She drops back to 5f having won at the trip earlier in her career though she showed little on good to soft ground in four previous attempts. Trainer and jockey both have solid records here, with the trainer on 10% from 3615 runs and the jockey on 13% from 79 rides at the course. Usually held up and producing its effort late, she will need the leader to come back to her in what looks a stiff test. Recent form of 262916 includes a win and she remains dangerous at this venue.
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3Hi Lord58/100
Hi Lord is a modest performer who has shown bits of form here, finishing third on his most recent visit to Ayr. He drops back to 5f having won at the trip in the past, though his latest run over 6f was poor. The trainer has had too few runners at the track to judge while the jockey's modest record here is based on a very large sample of 1055 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will be waiting to pounce but must improve on that last effort. Recent form of 137305 and a placed effort on good to soft ground keep him in the picture stepping up in class.
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4Oriental Prince56/100
Oriental Prince is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and has a poor record at Ayr from six runs with no placed efforts. He drops back to 5f having won five times at the trip from 15 starts and has shown he handles good to soft ground with one win from five. Trainer and jockey both have solid if unspectacular records at the track, the yard on 10% from 3615 runs and the jockey on 14% from 1202 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he will need to find his best form from a middle draw. Recent form of 748261 includes a win and he is dropping in class.
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5King's Crown55/100
King's Crown is a modest performer who has been running consistently without winning of late. He has placed here at Ayr without success and has shown he can be competitive on good to soft ground with two placed efforts from five runs. The yard's modest record at the track is offset by the jockey's stronger 16% strike rate from 81 rides at Ayr. Usually held up and producing its effort late from the widest draw in stall 21, he will be right at the back early. Recent form of 653405 keeps him competitive at this level.
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6Vince L'Amour55/100
Vince L'Amour is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year and arrives off the back of a modest effort last time. Has placed both over course and distance and on this ground, though wins remain hard to come by. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than sparkling records at Ayr while dropping in class.
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7Thistle Nil55/100
Thistle Nil is a modest performer who has won once from three starts at Ayr and also has a win at this trip on good to soft ground. Recent form of 791801 shows a mixed bag but the course success and going record are both plus points. Trainer Jim Goldie has a solid 10% strike rate here from a huge sample while Rhys Elliott is operating at 5% from 95 rides at the track, stepping up in class.
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8Knicks53/100
Knicks is a modest performer who has been placed three times from four runs at Ayr and is competitive on good to soft ground. He has won over this trip though his overall strike rate is modest and he has been out of the frame in three of his last four starts. Trainer and jockey both operate at a 12% strike rate here with positive A/E figures, stepping up in class.
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9Lion's House53/100
Lion's House is a modest performer who has been in and out of form this year with a recent best of second over 6f here. He has placed once from four runs at Ayr but is 0-2 on good to soft ground and now drops back to 5f having won twice at the trip in the past. The trainer's modest record at the track continues a theme of limited success for the yard here while dropping in class.
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10Edgewater Drive51/100
Edgewater Drive is a modest performer who has dropped to a winnable mark but looked out of sorts when last seen. Has won at this trip and handles good to soft ground, yet the wide draw in stall 13 is far from ideal at Ayr. Trainer and jockey both have solid course records and the horse has shown some ability here before, stepping up in class.
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11Emperor's Son51/100
Emperor's Son is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip from 12 attempts but has been out of form for some time with a recent record of 694109. He has shown little at Ayr in two previous runs and the yard's small sample here adds no encouragement. The jockey's solid 14% strike-rate from 108 rides at the track is a positive on ground she has handled competitively before.
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12Whiskey Kisses51/100
Whiskey Kisses is a modest performer who has run five times at Ayr without winning but has been placed on three occasions including a second. Drops back to 5f today having failed to trouble the judge in two previous attempts at the trip and she showed little on her only start on good to soft ground. Trainer holds an 8% strike rate here from over a thousand runs while jockey Jason Hart records 13% from 557 rides at the track, dropping in class.
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13The Caltonian50/100
The Caltonian is a modest performer who has run 18 times at Ayr without winning and has failed to place in his last five starts here. Drops back to 5f today having won at the trip earlier in his career though his recent form is ordinary and he has yet to place from five runs on good to soft. Trainer's modest 6% strike rate at the track is offset by Clifford Lee's solid 14% record at Ayr.
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14Justmyluck50/100
Justmyluck is a modest performer who has won once over this trip from six attempts but has been well below that level in recent starts. First run at Ayr today and only modest form on good to soft ground from two attempts. Trainer has a 6% strike rate here from 1979 runs while jockey is 10% from 81 rides, dropping in class.
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15Startling49/100
Startling is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 242211 that includes two wins. Has been placed both times at Ayr and has won six times at this trip, but remains unproven on good to soft ground. Trainer strikes at 7% here from 136 runs while the jockey is 9% from 22 rides.
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16Never Dark46/100
Never Dark is a limited performer who has been around a long time and rarely threatens to win these days. He has shown bits of form this year but his four runs at Ayr have produced no better than sixth and the wide draw in stall 19 is no help. Trainer Iain Jardine has a solid 11% strike rate here while Saffie Osborne's small sample at the track offers no real guide, stepping up in class.
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17Simba's Pride46/100
Simba's Pride is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning in 12 starts. Drawn widest of all in stall 14 and unproven on good to soft ground after six runs at this trip without success. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate at Ayr from a big sample while the jockey is operating at 6%.
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18Opal Storm44/100
Opal Storm is a limited performer who has been in and out of form all year. He has run well over this trip on good to soft ground before and has shown some ability at Ayr, finishing second here on his penultimate start. The yard's modest record at the track adds a note of caution, stepping up in class.
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19Lucius Aurelius42/100
Lucius Aurelius is a limited performer who has been out of form for a while and showed little at this track on his only previous visit. Drops back to 5f today having won at the trip earlier in his career but he is 0 from 5 on good to soft ground and has looked limited in this grade. Trainer operates at a 10 percent strike rate here while the jockey has a strong 20 percent record from a small sample, stepping up in class.
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20Falcon Queen42/100
Falcon Queen is a limited performer who has shown little progress across ten runs and looks exposed now. She has been beaten a long way on all four visits to Ayr and failed to place on her only start on good to soft ground. The combination of a modest strike rate for both trainer and jockey at the track adds to the negatives, stepping up in class.
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21Pockley33/100
Pockley is a limited performer who has been on the go for a long time and looks vulnerable from a wide draw. He has run five times at Ayr without placing and shows no win or place on good to soft ground from three attempts. The trainer's modest record at the track and the jockey's zero from five rides add little encouragement, stepping up in class.
KTB verdict
Great Profit is the KTB Selection. He has been consistent this year, arriving in decent form after a win and two placed efforts in his last three starts, and has been placed both times at Ayr. The race shape with its uncontested lead could play against held-up types like him, yet his proven ability at the track gives him the edge. Main dangers are Thunderstorm Katie with her strong Ayr record and Hi Lord who has shown bits of form here, while Oriental Prince and King's Crown add depth to a competitive field of modest performers.
KTB Selection Great Profit
This is the narrative read of the 2:00 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Great Profit the selection despite being unproven on good to soft?
He is a modest performer who has been consistent this year and arrives in decent form after a win and two placed efforts in his last three starts, and he has been placed both times at Ayr.
How does the pace shape affect the held-up runners?
The lone-leader pace shape with high confidence means one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which horse has the strongest Ayr course record among the principals?
Thunderstorm Katie has won here three times from nine runs.
What are the trainer and jockey stats for the selection at Ayr?
Trainer Stephen Hanlon has a 50% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 5.88 from two runs; jockey Barry McHugh has a 7% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.82 from 192 rides.
Which runner is the only confirmed front-runner in the field?
Startling tends to make the running or race on the pace.
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