4:00 Ayr
This Class 5 handicap division at Ayr over a mile on good to soft ground brings together a field of 13 modest performers where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. They All Know Me heads the figures on 61 with You Sexy Thing, Upper East, Roaring Ralph and Green Pursuit all within ten points, underlining how little separates the principals on the numbers. The race features several hold-up types and a strong pace is anticipated, which should play into the hands of those delivered late.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the line-up the pace shape is expected to be strong and could collapse late, favouring hold-up horses. Mandarin Spirit, Penelope's Sister and Trinculo are all inclined to race prominently or on the pace, while the majority of the field including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the leaders will go hard enough to set up the race for the closers or whether the prominent runners can dictate terms and hold on.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1They All Know Me KTB Selection61/100
They All Know Me is a modest performer who has shown mixed form this year with two wins from 13 runs. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having been placed without winning at the trip before, while he has also been competitive on good to soft without scoring. The yard has a solid recent record at Ayr with a 12% strike rate and A/E of 1.39 from 17 runs and the jockey knows the track well with a 13% strike rate and A/E of 1.02 from 298 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 7 and comes into this on recent form figures of 818042. His KTB Fit score of 61 makes him the clear top pick in the race.
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2You Sexy Thing59/100
You Sexy Thing is a modest performer who has shown some spark on good to soft ground, placing once from two attempts. He steps up to 1m for the first time today having failed to make an impact on his only previous run at the distance. The trainer holds a solid 13% strike rate at Ayr from 38 runs while the jockey has recorded a 33% strike rate at the track from a small sample of three rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn widest in stall 13 and arrives with form figures of 130-64. Dropping in class, his KTB Fit of 59 keeps him firmly in the mix among the principals.
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3Upper East57/100
Upper East is a fair 3-year-old who has shown ordinary form in three starts so far, finishing no better than midfield. He drops back to 1m having failed to make an impact at the trip twice already, while first-time headgear is now added. The trainer holds an 8% strike rate at Ayr from 225 runs and the jockey is operating at 14% from 108 rides here. Usually held up, though with medium confidence in that assessment, he is drawn in stall 6 and his recent form reads 467. Dropping in class, his KTB Fit score of 57 leaves him with plenty to find but he cannot be entirely dismissed.
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4Roaring Ralph51/100
Roaring Ralph is a modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from four starts and also has five wins from 15 runs at this trip. Recent form of 113075 shows ability but also plenty of lesser efforts and he was well held on his only previous run on good to soft ground. The trainer has an 11% strike rate here from a large sample of 1254 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 79 rides at Ayr. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 10 and drops in class. His course record is a clear positive and his KTB Fit of 51 keeps him in the conversation.
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5Green Pursuit51/100
Green Pursuit is a modest performer who has been consistent enough of late with three placed efforts in his last five starts including one on good to soft. He is 1 from 1 at today's trip though without winning and makes his first appearance at Ayr. Trainer Seb Spencer has a modest 7% strike rate here from 28 runs while jockey Dale Swift sits on a solid 12% from 124 rides at the track. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he arrives with form figures of -05352 and a KTB Fit score of 51. His recent placed efforts suggest he should be competitive if the strong pace materialises in his favour.
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6Sailthisshipalone50/100
Sailthisshipalone is a modest performer who has been consistent enough this year without winning often. He has a win and two places from six runs on good to soft and has scored at this trip before, though his recent efforts suggest he needs things to fall right. The trainer's record at Ayr is poor while the jockey has a solid strike rate here.
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7Mandarin Spirit50/100
Mandarin Spirit is a modest performer who has shown little spark in four starts this year and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back to 1m having failed to make an impact at that trip on his first two outings, though the longer distance last time brought no improvement either. Kevin Ryan and Kevin Stott both have solid records at Ayr and he is one of the few likely to race prominently.
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8Quiet Resolve48/100
Quiet Resolve is a modest performer who has shown consistent but limited ability, finishing in the frame on several occasions without winning since his last success. He has run three times at Ayr without placing and is only 1-5 on good to soft ground, though he stays competitive on it. He has won at this trip from 24 attempts and holds a solid recent form profile for the grade.
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9Barley46/100
Barley is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning at this trip back in June. He has twice been well held at Ayr and is 0-7 on good to soft ground so neither track nor going look ideal. His high draw adds another negative.
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10Starliner46/100
Starliner is a modest performer who has been in decent form of late with six placed efforts from his last eight starts. He has won over this trip and at this track though the wide draw in stall 12 is far from ideal on his first run on good to soft ground. The trainer's modest record at Ayr adds another negative.
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11Penelope's Sister45/100
Penelope's Sister is a limited performer who has run to form without winning in recent starts. She has won three times at Ayr from 18 attempts and is 3 from 11 at this trip, though she drops back from 1m1f today. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate at the track while the jockey is operating at 5% here and she is likely to go forward early.
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12Mayor of Maghera45/100
Mayor of Maghera is a modest performer who has been around a bit and shown only fair form at best this year. He has run four times at Ayr without placing and his record on good to soft is limited to a single unplaced effort. Dropping back to a trip he has won over before is the main positive in a race where he will need to improve on recent efforts.
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13Trinculo42/100
Trinculo is a modest performer on his three starts this year after an initial poor debut. He steps up from 6f to 1m for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey both have established but below-average records at Ayr and he is expected to be prominent early.
KTB verdict
They All Know Me stands out at the head of the KTB Fit ratings and his held-up run style looks ideally suited to the strong pace that is anticipated. The selection has shown enough this year to suggest he can capitalise if the race sets up for closers, with the yard in reasonable order at Ayr and the jockey well acquainted with the track. Main dangers are You Sexy Thing, who drops in class and also likes to come from off the pace, and Upper East who tries first-time headgear in a drop back in trip and class. Roaring Ralph's course record cannot be ignored while Green Pursuit's recent consistency makes him another to consider in what looks an open race.
KTB Selection They All Know Me
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Ayr results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up to a mile for the first time having previously been placed without winning at the trip?
They All Know Me
How many front-runners or prominent runners are highlighted in the pace shape?
At least three: Mandarin Spirit, Penelope's Sister and Trinculo
Which horse is the only one among the principals wearing first-time headgear?
Upper East
Which runner has the best course record at Ayr among those with multiple visits?
Roaring Ralph with two wins from four starts
Who is the only 3-year-old in the field dropping in class and wearing first-time headgear?
Upper East
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