7:30 Wolverhampton (AW)
A Class 6 handicap over 1m 142y on the standard surface at Wolverhampton features a field of 13 three-year-olds where the KTB Fit ratings point to a fairly modest bunch overall. The top-rated horse reaches just 59, underlining the limited nature of the contest, while several runners are dropping in class in search of a much-needed opportunity. With the KTB numbers highlighting only small margins between the principals, the race looks set to be decided by which horse adapts best to the conditions and benefits from the tactical pace.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy or well positioned will pay dividends. Most of the principals, including the selection, tend to be held up and produce their efforts late, so the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace. The key question is whether any horse can quicken effectively off a slow gallop or if the race will fall into the lap of something that gets a relatively uncontested position.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Roserunner KTB Selection59/100
Roserunner is a limited performer who has shown some ability on this track, finishing second here on his only visit. He steps up in trip today having already been placed at the distance without winning, and the standard going looks suitable given his record of one win from two starts. Marco Botti holds a 16% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 1316 runs while Oisin Murphy, who has a 22% strike rate at the track from 630 rides, takes the mount. The trainer and jockey combination shows 13 wins from 74 rides with an A/E of 0.97. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and should be suited by the tactical nature of this steadily-run race from his draw in stall 9.
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2Yes Waliim54/100
Yes Waliim is a limited performer who has shown some spark on this track but has never won or placed in two runs here. He steps up markedly in trip today having been campaigned over sprint distances, which asks a fresh question of him as he drops in class. Richard Hughes has a 17% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 512 runs and pairs with Billy Loughnane who holds a 20% strike rate at the venue from 803 rides. Their overall record together reads 13 wins from 79 rides with an A/E of 0.84. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be produced late off what is expected to be a steady pace.
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3Arouse50/100
Arouse is a modest performer on his three starts to date and steps up in trip today for a yard that operates at a 14% strike rate here from 939 runs. Recent efforts have been ordinary and the wide draw in stall 13 adds to the task while he drops in class. David Simcock and Callum Shepherd have combined for 66 winners from 456 rides with an A/E of 0.98. He has no course form on record and is held up, usually producing his effort late. The data confidence is only medium so the full picture remains unclear on standard ground where he is yet to place in two runs.
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4Ernie McCrew49/100
Ernie McCrew is a limited performer who has shown his best at this track with a placing from three runs here. Consistent rather than progressive of late, he steps back up in trip having been placed once at the distance without winning and holds a record of one win from eight starts on standard going. J. S. Moore has a modest 9% strike-rate at Wolverhampton from 935 runs while Taylor Fisher is 12% from 169 rides at the track. Their record together is 15 wins from 173 rides with an A/E of 0.71. Usually held up with high confidence, he will look to come from off the pace in a tactical contest.
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5Coxy's Star48/100
Coxy's Star is a limited performer on the evidence of five runs this year that have produced no better than a modest fourth. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 149 runs and he steps up in trip, a fresh question for a horse whose small overall sample makes going preferences hard to pin down after two runs on standard without placing. William Muir & Chris Grassick and Lewis Edmunds have combined for 65 winners from 591 rides with an A/E of 0.90. Usually held up, he will be ridden for a late effort in what is set to be a steadily-run race.
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6Topathemorning48/100
Topathemorning is limited on what he has shown in six runs and the recent form figures offer little encouragement. He drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried while wearing first-time headgear and the yard has a solid 15% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 931 runs.
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7Sonbelievable47/100
Sonbelievable has shown very little in three runs to date, finishing well down the field each time including two modest efforts over shorter at this track. The step up to 1m poses a fresh question and the yard's 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton is respectable enough while he drops in class.
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8Crown The Future45/100
Crown The Future is a limited performer who has won once in six runs at Wolverhampton and placed once in three starts at today's trip. Recent form has been ordinary and the yard's modest 10% strike rate here from a huge sample offers little encouragement, though Tom Marquand's booking is the main positive.
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9Wild Rosie43/100
Wild Rosie is a limited filly who has shown little in nine starts and was well beaten on her only previous visit here. She drops back in trip today having failed to make an impression over further last time while the trainer has a solid 13% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a big sample.
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10Ahead of Fashion40/100
Ahead of Fashion is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on this track without winning. He has a mixed record from 16 runs this year and looks vulnerable from stall 11 stepping up in trip for the first time while the jockey is 0-19 at the course.
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11Kaiko39/100
Kaiko is a limited performer who has shown very little in five starts to date. He steps up in trip for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the trainer holds a 9% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 472 runs and the horse is unproven on standard ground.
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12Fenay Bridge37/100
Fenay Bridge is a limited performer who has shown little in four starts, finishing no better than seventh. He has already been tried over this trip without success and was well held on his only previous run here while the trainer operates at a 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton from a large sample.
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13Thomas Tallis36/100
Thomas Tallis is a limited horse who has shown little since a fair third at this track in March. Two runs at today's trip brought no improvement and the wide draw in stall 12 adds to the difficulty while the trainer's modest 10% strike rate from a large sample at Wolverhampton offers no particular encouragement.
KTB verdict
Roserunner is the KTB Selection. He has shown some ability on this track with a placing on his only visit and the step up in trip looks within range given his placed effort at the distance, while the standard going suits and the trainer-jockey combination brings solid figures. The steadily-run nature of the race should play to his strengths as a horse who is usually held up. Main dangers are Yes Waliim, who drops in class and has some spark on this surface despite the trip query, and Ernie McCrew, who has shown his best form at Wolverhampton and is consistent. Arouse and Coxy's Star cannot be entirely dismissed if the race falls their way but look to have more to prove.
KTB Selection Roserunner
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 28 Sep. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Roserunner | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Yes Waliim | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Arouse | 18/1 | Bet365 |
| Ernie McCrew | 7/2 | 7Bet |
| Coxy's Star | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Topathemorning | 30/1 | 7Bet |
| Sonbelievable | 25/1 | Bet365 |
| Crown The Future | 10/3 | Bet365 |
| Wild Rosie | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Ahead of Fashion | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Kaiko | 80/1 | 7Bet |
| Fenay Bridge | 35/1 | 7Bet |
| Thomas Tallis | 16/1 | William Hill |
This is the narrative read of the 7:30 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Wolverhampton (AW) results & records page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in trip from sprint distances?
Yes Waliim
What is the trainer's strike rate at Wolverhampton for the yard of the selection?
16%
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Topathemorning
How many times has Ernie McCrew been placed at Wolverhampton?
Once from three runs
Which horse has a wide draw in stall 13?
Arouse
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