3:02 Carlisle
This Class 5 handicap hurdle at Carlisle over 2m3f218y brings together a field of 13 in which the KTB numbers suggest a competitive but muddling affair. Four of the top five principals share an identical Fit score of 57, with the selection Shoeshine Boy just ahead on 59, while several runners remain unproven on the prevailing ground. The race features a number of course winners and placed performers at the track, though recent form is mixed across the board and most are dropping or stepping in trip or class.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace shape is expected to be muddling and tactical, suiting those who race prominently or close to the pace. The majority of the field, including the top five principals, are prominent racers, which should see a contested forward position early on. This sets up a race that could be won or lost from mid-race onwards, with the key question being which of the handily placed runners can quicken off what is likely to be a steady gallop in the latter stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
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1Shoeshine Boy KTB Selection59/100
Shoeshine Boy is a useful performer who has won once from three runs at Carlisle. He arrives off the back of a recent hurdling pull-up but drops in class today and has been placed both starts at this trip without winning, though the going remains unproven. The 10-year-old usually races handily on or close to the lead and is the KTB selection. Donald Whillans has a 6% strike rate at the track from 199 runs, in line with his record elsewhere, while Craig Nichol posts an 8% strike rate at Carlisle from 249 rides that is similarly in line with his figures at other courses. The combination of course success and a drop in class gives him a clear chance if he can bounce back from his latest effort.
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2Rickety Gate57/100
Rickety Gate is a fair 11-year-old who has won twice at Carlisle from seven runs and has also won at today's trip. His recent form of 34P-77 is ordinary but his official rating of 83 still leaves him competitive in this grade on the balance of his career. He usually races handily on or close to the lead and remains unproven on the ground. Nicky Richards has a 22% strike rate at Carlisle from 506 runs, above their 17% at other tracks, while Danny McMenamin records an 18% strike rate here from 222 rides in line with his 14% elsewhere. The course record and trip ability make him a major player in a race that should suit his prominent style.
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3U S Marshall57/100
U S Marshall is a useful performer who showed his best effort when fifth over this trip at the track on his final start. The 6-year-old drops back in trip from 2m4½f with no win or place from one previous run at today's distance and the dam has had one other runner which did not win. He usually races handily on or close to the lead and is unproven on the ground. Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero have a 16% strike rate at Carlisle from 67 runs in line with their record elsewhere while Toby Wynne is 9% from 22 rides here in line with his record at other tracks. His Carlisle form and prominent run-style position him as a solid contender.
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4Final Straw57/100
Final Straw is a useful performer who arrives on the back of two wins from his last three starts. The 6-year-old drops back in trip today having last run over further which asks a fresh question and is unproven on the ground. Half-brother to Sayitfirst who won three times from 40 runs, with the dam having produced two other runners including one winner. He usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence. Martin Todhunter has a 7% strike rate at Carlisle from 399 runs below his 10% at other tracks while Jamie Hamilton's 9% figure here is in line with his record elsewhere. The recent winning sequence gives him strong claims if the trip suits.
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5La Lolita57/100
La Lolita is a useful performer on her official rating of 94 and arrives in reasonable form having finished fourth and fifth in her last two starts. The 5-year-old has no experience at Carlisle, remains unproven on this ground and shows no success in four runs at today's trip. She is usually held up and produces her effort late with first-time headgear now applied. Sam England has a 17% strike rate at Carlisle from 93 runs while Jonathan England posts a 17% strike rate from 86 rides at the track. The headgear and late kick could prove effective in a tactical race.
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6Jetovango56/100
Jetovango is a useful performer on his official rating of 95 with a solid recent sequence that includes a placed effort at today's trip. He drops back in distance from 2m5f having shown ability over 2m3f without winning and the dam has had one other runner which did not win. Usually held up with high confidence, the trainer has a 10% strike rate at Carlisle in line with his record elsewhere while the jockey's 6% strike rate here matches his wider figures.
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7Chicago Storm52/100
Chicago Storm is a useful performer on his official rating of 95 but arrives in poor recent form after a fall and two pulled-up efforts. He steps up markedly in trip today having never gone beyond 2m, which poses a fresh question, while he is also unproven on this ground. Typically settles in midfield and the yard has no previous runners at Carlisle with the jockey recording a 1% strike rate from 71 rides here in line with his record elsewhere.
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8Half Track51/100
Half Track is a fair 10-year-old who has placed twice from five runs at Carlisle without winning. He drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance on two of six attempts, though he is unproven on the current ground. Usually held up and the trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here with 9% and 13% strike rates respectively.
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9Gonnino49/100
Gonnino is a useful performer who has run to form on both starts this year and finished a clear second when tried over this trip last season. He steps up from 2m today having already shown he stays the distance, though the going remains an unknown. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence and has placed on his only previous visit to Carlisle while trainer and jockey both operate at their usual level here.
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10Lady Phoebe47/100
Lady Phoebe is a fair performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. She steps up markedly in trip today having shown little at 2m last time and remains unproven on this ground while stepping up in class. Usually races handily on or close to the lead with high confidence and the trainer records a 6% strike rate at Carlisle while the jockey is in line with his 12% at other courses.
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11Coventry45/100
Coventry is a fair performer who showed he retains ability when winning last time out. He has placed here without winning and is proven at this trip, though he remains unproven on the prevailing ground. Usually held up with high confidence while the trainer operates at a 4% strike rate here from 125 runs and the jockey is on an 11% strike rate from 62 rides.
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12Billable Grant42/100
Billable Grant is a fair performer who won a handicap at this level last season but has been well held in three starts since. He drops back from 3m to a trip he has tried eight times without success and is unproven on the ground. Usually races handily on or close to the lead and the trainer's 4% strike rate at Carlisle is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey's 12% strike rate here matches his overall figure.
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13Am Still Here38/100
Am Still Here is a fair performer who has been consistent in recent starts with three seconds and a third from his last five runs. He has placed three times from six starts at today's trip yet showed little on his only previous visit to Carlisle when finishing fifth. Usually races handily on or close to the lead and the trainer's 4% strike rate here is in line with their record elsewhere while the jockey's 10% mark matches his wider figure.
KTB verdict
Shoeshine Boy is the KTB selection in a race where the prominent runners look set to dominate. His Carlisle record of one win from three starts, combined with a drop in class and proven placed form at this trip, makes him the one to beat if he can put his latest pull-up behind him. The main dangers are Rickety Gate, with two course wins and a strong trainer record at the track, and Final Straw, who arrives in excellent recent form with two wins from his last three starts. U S Marshall and La Lolita, both on the same Fit score, add further depth in what looks a typically competitive Carlisle handicap.
KTB Selection Shoeshine Boy
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:25 UTC, 22 Oct. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Shoeshine Boy | 20/1 | Bet365 |
| Rickety Gate | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| U S Marshall | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Final Straw | 14/1 | Bet Victor |
| La Lolita | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Jetovango | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Chicago Storm | 40/1 | 7Bet |
| Half Track | 12/1 | 7Bet |
| Gonnino | 13/2 | Bet365 |
| Lady Phoebe | 9/1 | Bet Victor |
| Coventry | 10/1 | Bet Victor |
| Billable Grant | 33/1 | Bet365 |
| Am Still Here | 12/1 | BetMGM |
This is the narrative read of the 3:02 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. Every result we hold for the track is on the Carlisle results & records page. How favourites, trainers, jockeys and the draw have fared here over the last five years is on the Carlisle racecourse statistics page. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest Carlisle course record among the principals?
Rickety Gate has won twice at Carlisle from seven runs.
How many of the top five principals usually race prominently?
Four of the top five principals usually race handily on or close to the lead.
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear?
La Lolita is fitted with first-time headgear.
What is the most recent winning effort among the principals?
Final Straw arrives on the back of two wins from his last three starts.
Which horse is dropping in class for this race?
Shoeshine Boy and Jetovango are both dropping in class.
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